The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 8
February 24, 2025
This week:
- Trump has changed the electorate
- Vance dominates CPAC straw poll
- Why New York City tolls matter
Changed electorate: A recent CBS News poll confirms that President Donald Trump, between his campaign efforts and his change to Republican ideology, has successfully changed the composition of the American electorate.
Throughout the 2024 cycle, there was evidence of this change in the movement in party voter registration. But the new nationwide poll shows substantial change from previous cycles. Republicans now outnumber Democrats by two percentage points in the overall electorate, this new poll suggests.
That may not sound impressive, but consider that it is a historical anomaly for Republicans to hold any sort of lead lead. And this is a massive improvement over recent election cycles.
At this point in 2017, for example, when Trump was settling into the White House for his first term, self-identified Democrats in the CBS poll outnumbered Republicans by five percentage points. In early 2021, after Trump had lost and left office, Democrats enjoyed a six-point advantage overall.
This implies an eight-point swing in Republicans’ favor — a large change in the national electorate that partly explains why Trump seems to have so much more momentum at the beginning of his second term.
Another thing working in Trump’s favor: In a new Harvard-Harris poll, 58 percent believe he is doing a better job than Joe Biden was doing. It is difficult to get 58 percent to agree on anything Trump-related, so this is a pretty significant number.
CPAC: Again, the good political news keeps coming for Trump — at least for now during his honeymoon period. The CPAC straw poll over the weekend delivered a result that bodes well for the future of Trumpism post-Trump. Whereas some have maintained that Republican gains under Trump will vanish the moment he does, the nation’s conservative movement, for its part, believes it has found a legitimate successor to Trump who articulates his ideals.
The conservative base appears to have changed significantly from what it was in 2002 or even 2010, and it appears to be ready to rally around JD Vance as Trump’s successor. Vance, coming off an impressive speech in Munich on democracy and the freedom of speech, easily dominated the straw poll with a surprisingly strong 61 percent. In second place was Steve Bannon (12 percent), followed by Ron DeSantis (7 percent) and then Marco Rubio (3 percent).
Bannon’s inclusion on the list is an odd reflection of the change in CPAC’s base constituency — some say that the crowd in attendance at recent CPACs would be unrecognizable to the conservative base of the early 21st century. But this is how the GOP has changed. And the most important data point is clearly Vance’s dominance. His value to Trump’s campaign became obvious when he trounced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) in the vice presidential debate, but he has continued to add value to the administration in a way most vice presidents do not.
Vance’s win at CPAC means that he is in poll position with the crowd most closely attached to the classical conservative movement of the Nixon-Reagan era. If Trump succeeds and there is demand for a third term, he will be in a strong position to carry the torch.
Governor 2025
New Jersey: The Trump administration’s confrontation with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over congestion tolling is not primarily about New York State, although it will have a political effect there too. It is primarily about New Jersey, whose resident commuters already pay very high prices to drive into Manhattan via the Holland and Lincoln Tunnels and the George Washington Bridge. Trump flipped five New Jersey counties from Blue to Red in November and came close enough to winning New Jersey in 2024 (within six points) that Republicans definitely have a realistic chance in this race.
What’s more, unlike during the Chris Christie era, they will have a serious opportunity to build their party and gain ground in the legislature as well. Voter registration numbers are already trending favorably, although much will depend on the Trump administration avoiding the sort of deep unpopularity that presidential administrations (Biden’s, for example) sometimes fall into due to big mistakes after the honeymoon period.
In the Republican primary, 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli has a very large early lead, if you believe his own internal poll.
Senate 2026
Georgia: Republicans are at this point concerned that Gov. Brian Kemp (R) may choose not to run, even though he already holds a lead in polling against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). NRSC Chairman Tim Scott (R-S.C.) calls Kemp his number one recruit. Other potential Republican contenders include Reps. Buddy Carter and Rich McCormick and Agricultural Commissioner John King. A longshot option would be the much-discussed Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R), who might instead be interested in a run for governor.
Kemp is the only Republican who leads Ossoff in currently published polls.
Kentucky: Despite Mitch McConnell’s retirement announcement, popular Gov. Andy Beshear (D) will not run for the open Senate seat. This will make Republicans’ lives a lot easier in 2026, since he is probably the only Democrat with a serious chance of winning. At the moment, they have state Rep. Pamela Stevenson (D)
Former Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) and Rep. Andy Barr (R) has already officially announced for Senate. Rep. Andy Barr (R) has teased a run as well, meeting some pushback from the conservative Club for Growth. A potential run by libertarian-leaning Rep. Thomas Massie (R) would throw a curveball into the race.
Governor 2026
Florida: President Trump has endorsed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R) for governor. Although First Lady Casey DeSantis leads him in at least one poll, she is apparently not running, or so says her term-limited governor and husband.
This likely means the nomination is Donalds’s to lose, because it is difficult to imagine most of the Republicans who poll better than him entering the race at this point. For example, Sen. Ashley Moody (R) was attorney general until recently and on track for governor, but she was just appointed to the U.S. Senate and is now far more likely to run in the special election to finish out her term. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R), after the controversy that forced him to withdraw from consideration for Trump’s cabinet, is probably too politically toxic at this point to win a primary over someone else who has Trump’s endorsement — nor would he likely try to override Trump’s choice.
Donalds leads the field without these candidates in a second poll that includes Ag Commissioner Wilton Simpson (R), who may actually run. Even so, two-thirds of Florida voters have never heard of Donalds, and so he will have a lot of work to do increasing his name-recognition.
New York: As she stares down President Trump in a game of congestion-price chicken, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) risks getting whipsawed in next year’s election. On the one hand, she has to play chicken with Trump in order to appease her party’s left-wing base, thanks to a highly anticipated primary contest by the more moderate U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres (D), whose support for Israel makes him formidable in a state with a large Jewish Democratic population.
On the other hand, she will have to avoid going too far to her left because she will likely face off against the popular and moderate U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler (R) in the general election. New York has not elected a Republican governor since George Pataki won his third term in the 2002 election. Despite Republican gains and Democratic losses over the last two years, Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by more than 3 million, meaning that there will have to be a lot of crossover for Republicans to have a chance against either Hochul or Torres.
