The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 7
This week:
- Trump adopts the Gingrich strategy
- Democrats choose odd hills to die on
- Kemp leads in hypothetical GA-SEN matchup
Outlook
The Gingrichian Contrast: In 1994, Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) led the Republican revolution that seized control of the U.S. House for the first time in four decades. He became Speaker of the House and, later, a frequent writer and commentator. As a matter of course, he would frequently address conservative audiences inside and outside of Washington.
This is relevant now because President Donald Trump is now using a classic tactic that Gingrich, his friend and political ally, has frequently advocated in his many appearances.
As Gingrich used to put it (and perhaps still does), the way to win at politics is to take as many issues as you can find where a large majority of of the population agrees with you — he would typically call it a “70-30 or 80-20 issue,” but there’s no specific number — and then just “stand next to it” and bask in its glow.
This is exactly what Trump is now doing, and it is paying off.
As much as the legacy media tries to create new controversies in his administration, Trump’s actions on the top issues are massively popular.
According to the new national Marquette University Law School poll, for example, 63 percent favor his immediate move to have the government recognize only two sexes; 60 percent support deporting illegal immigrants; and 60 percent support expanding oil and gas production. Note that not all of Trump’s positions enjoy broad support. For example, his efforts to take back the Panama Canal (35 percent approval) and rename the Gulf of Mexico (29 percent) are significantly less popular, but voters likely consider these a lot less important, too.
Note also that this poll is not an especially favorable one for Trump overall, and might even be an outlier on those issues, since it puts him on a minus-four approval rating.
Odd hills to die on: ABC News’ Jonathan Karl rather amusingly confronted House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries over the weekend with some of these Marquette numbers, pointing out that Trump was on the popular side of so many critical issues. “Is there anything you are seeing that Trump is doing that you are in favor of, that you think is the right thing?” Jeffries could not side with Trump on any of them.
Another way of putting this, as one commentator did, is that Democrats have chosen some very odd hills to die on. They seem hell-bent on protecting government waste from Elon Musk and DOGE, letting male athletes play in women’s and girls’ sports, preventing the deportation of criminal immigrants, and keeping legal the mutilation and sterilization of young children through so-called “gender-affirming care.”
Add to this Democrats’ hostility toward freedom of speech, evinced by their reaction to JD Vance’s powerful speech in Munich, in which he criticized European governments for backsliding on democracy by arresting people for peaceful protest and free expression online.
Trump’s embrace of so many popular issues — and Democrats’ insistence upon taking the opposite side regardless of public opinion — helps explain why his approval rating is holding up so well. It is positive in four of the five polls taken this month, and by a double-digit margin in Rasmussen’s latest survey.
Democrats are left feebly complaining that Trump isn’t doing anything or hasn’t done enough to bring consumer prices down. But in addition to the fact that it will surely take months to get any results on inflation, there just aren’t any economic numbers yet for the Trump administration. February will be Trump’s first full month in office.
Ukraine: Another major Trump campaign promise was to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. In this area, Trump is also on the ball.
In addition to the feathers that Vance ruffled in Munich, Trump has ruffled even more in Brussels by promising to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss Ukraine’s future, apparently without the Ukrainians at the table. (Secretary of State Marco Rubio has promised that both Ukraine and Europe would be involved in any “real negotiations.”) This is alarming to some because it signals a willingness to make concessions that the Ukrainians would not support. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also declared last week that the U.S. views Ukrainian NATO membership to be “unrealistic.”
As concerned as some are by this shift toward realism, Trump’s move is already having what is probably its intended effect. European leaders have convened an emergency meeting and are now being forced to step up their own commitment to Ukraine’s security.
The stated policy of Trump’s administration is to disengage from Ukraine to the extent necessary in order to prepare for other threats — namely, a potential war with China in the Pacific. It is unclear whether Trump can force an actual settlement in Ukraine, but it might backfire on him if he were to cut a poor deal that is viewed as too favorable to Putin.
Adams prosecution: There is one area where Trump’s team has arguably dropped the ball — in its attempt to drop charges against New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D). This is apparently being done in hopes of extracting cooperation from Adams later on. This move by Trump’s senior Justice Department officials resulted in multiple resignations in the Southern District of New York by prosecutors unwilling to dismiss an open-and-shut case.
If you saw this news, you could be forgiven for assuming it was a typical woke-resistance rebellion story. However, this was a resignation by two conservative prosecutors (one a former clerk for Antonin Scalia) who probably even voted for him and were being asked to take a dive on a clear-cut case of local government corruption.
Some have tried to downplay the gravity of the charges against Adams, but they are not just about airline upgrades. The Turkish government allegedly funneled contributions through straw donors into Adams’s campaign so that he would wrongfully be able obtain $10 million in matching funds from taxpayers when he was elected in 2021. Adams is innocent until proven guilty, but the evidence against him was substantial. This wasn’t another Trump case.
The Trump team has botched this one, but it is not a fatal error from a political perspective. It’s just too inside baseball. If Adams is indeed induced by the dropping of charges to cooperate in mass deportation operations, Trump may claim victory anyway. As indicated above, most Americans support the deportations.
Nominees: Despite the narrow Senate majority and the handful of unreliable Republican senators, Democrats have given up in the fight to stop any of Trump’s nominees for Cabinet posts. For the most part, Republicans have stuck together so far to give Trump the Cabinet he wants.
Odds and ends: Based on the Marquette poll mentioned above, if Republicans want another overwhelming majority issue to campaign on, they should consider passing laws in their states requiring viewers of online pornography to verify their ages — 69 percent of respondents in that poll said they want the courts to uphold such laws.
Also, the poll shows that the U.S. Supreme Court has a positive approval rating (narrowly) for the first time since 2022, when the Dobbs abortion decision overturned Roe v. Wade, returning the issue of abortion to the states.
Governor 2026
California: Bad news for Democrats: Kamala Harris (D) has the support of nearly 57 percent of California Democrats if she runs for governor. If she does run, former Ambassador, acting director of national intelligence, and Trump administration envoy Richard Grenell (R) has promised to make a bid. Given his moderate profile and virtually certain support from Trump (he was just involved in getting U.S. hostages released in Venezuela) he could be a formidable candidate. This race would be conducted under the state’s peculiar top-two primary and runoff system.
Ohio: Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (R) is officially in the race for governor, and he has received the endorsement of Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), who might have otherwise been a primary opponent. (He is instead running for state auditor).
State Treasurer Robert Sprague (R) has bowed out of this race to run for LaRose’s current position instead of governor. This will pit Ramaswamy against Attorney General Dave Yost (R).
Senate 2026
Georgia: Gov. Brian Kemp (R) leads Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) by six points in a new WPA intelligence poll for the Club for Growth, identical to another poll from last month. Another survey had Kemp leading by four. Last week, another survey, from Tyson Group, had Kemp winning by seven points. Kemp, who is term-limited, has not yet committed to the race.
Although the idea that Kemp would lead in this hypothetical matchup was not unexpected, the margin here is pretty big against an incumbent and could signal trouble for Georgia Democrats. Senate Democrats are unlikely to regain their majority next year, but their chances are zero if they lose this seat.
Minnesota: More bad news for Democrats: They will have one more open Senate seat to defend next fall.
Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) announced her retirement. Already, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) has gotten in, but any number of other Democrats, from Gov. Tim Walz to Rep. Ilhan Omar might make a bid. So far, the only Republicans to enter are former NBA player and 2024 loser Royce White (R) and retired Navy SEAL and Marine veteran Adam Schwarze (R). But a lot of others will be making up their minds in the coming months. Minnesota Republicans have been in a rut now for nearly 20 years, but this opportunity should not be overlooked. Minnesota voters have a reputation for bucking national trends, and this is one place where the pendulum, if it swings back, can only swing rightward.
