The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 18
May 4, 2026
This week:
- Republicans cannot count on redistricting to save them
- Trump decisively jumps in to settle Kentucky race
- Primary day in Michigan is tomorrow
House 2026
The Supreme Court has created an opening that many Republicans want to and will jump through. But they need to keep something in mind: The voting public is distressed, and as the party in power during a midterm, they are the ones voters will take it out on.
No amount of redistricting or even flagrant gerrymandering can save them if they don’t change the perception that things are going in a very wrong direction right now.
Although Democrats remain unpopular too, the congressional generic ballot surveys point directly where one would expect in a midterm year: to a decisive defeat of the party in the White House.
The Supreme Court’s opinion in Louisiana v. Callais has finally brought some rationality to the contorted logic of the court’s prior jurisprudence on Section Two of the Voting Rights Act. Previously, the court’s position could be summed up something like this: Racial gerrymandering is forbidden, except when it is required to carve out guaranteed seats for Democrats.
But this ruling against all racial gerrymandering did not occur in a vacuum. It essentially invites Republicans to go further in the ongoing tit-for-tat race to gerrymander as many states as possible so as to make the overall battle for the House less slanted against them. Tennessee, South Carolina, Mississippi and Florida are already moving to redraw, potentially eliminating seven Democratic seats. Louisiana has delayed its May 16 primary in order to do its own redraw, and will likely remove one of its two Democratic seats. Georgia will not be redistricting, and Alabama may be hindered by other legal issues.
But bear in mind, gerrymandering is not a panacea. It can skew an election result, but it cannot save a losing party. For one cannot simply eliminate Democratic seats. The process of doing so inherently makes Republican seats more competitive, such that in a Blue Wave year — potentially this year — they fall to Democrats.
One additional wrinkle: At the moment, Democrats still risk having their voter-approved gerrymander in Virginia thrown out by the state Supreme Court. For the moment, they are barred from putting it into effect.
Governor 2026
Florida: Florida has a very late June 12 filing deadline for governor, so it’s not a done deal yet. But assuming there are no late entrants, Rep. Byron Donalds (R) seems to have the Republican primary field to himself, having kept all serious opponents out of the race. He is now promoting an internal poll showing himself with 54 percent support and all other comers in single digits.
Any thought that the controversial new-right candidate James Fishback (R) was gaining support appear to be illusory — he is in second place at 9 percent.
Senate 2026
Kentucky: President Trump has finally stepped in to break the logjam in this three-way race by taking two key steps — endorsing Rep. Andy Barr (R) and appointing businessman Nate Morris (R) to a yet-to-be-specified ambassadorship in his administration.
That makes this a two-way race between Barr and former Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R), who used to be the frontrunner but has been increasingly slipping for months in terms of fundraising and polling. With Trump’s endorsement and Morris’s, Barr has to be considered the favorite now, especially given his huge financial advantage. Primary Election Day is coming up in two weeks on May 19.
Maine: The unthinkable happened in this race — or perhaps it was thinkable after all. It turns out that all of those polls showing Graham Platner (D) with a commanding lead over incumbent Gov. Janet Mills (D) were accurate, or at least good enough to scare away all of Mills’s financing. Democrats are now consolidating behind Platner. But his accession is not all good news for Democrats, since it also marks the point where Republicans can start spending early to make his long history of bizarre online behavior and his life story public to the general electorate.
Michigan: The Internet is forever. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) was caught deleting thousands of online posts that are not only damaging for her in her hotly contested primary but will also dog her in the general election if she wins the nomination. Among other things, she had lamented her move from California to Michigan, trashed rural Midwesterners, and admitted to voting in California two years after she had previously said she had made the move. The latter is receiving special attention because she had criticized another voter for voting in their old state after moving.
This report has been pushed out at the last minute as a last-gasp attempt to save the so far underwhelming candidacy of establishment favorite Rep. Haley Stevens (D), who the polls suggest is struggling to squeak out a meager first-past-the-post win with perhaps less than 40 percent of the vote. Former Wayne County health official Abdul El-Sayed (D), who has consistently polled at or near the top of the field, could well sneak up between his rivals and take the win. El-Sayed has recently been criticized for campaigning with the controversial Hamas-supporting Marxist streamer Hasan Piker, but that won’t hurt him in the Democratic primary.
Election Day is tomorrow. Republicans are set to nominate former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), who came up just short in the 2024 Senate race.
Texas: The University of Texas conducted a poll of registered voters over an unusually long 11-day period last month, with more than 20 percent of voters undecided. Those are three red flags for a poll, so take it with a grain of salt, but it shows state Rep. James Talarico (D) easily leading either Sen. John Cornyn (R) or his primary challenger Attorney General Ken Paxton ® by seven and eight points, respectively.
Paxton and Cornyn face off in the upcoming May 26 primary runoff. Paxton is favored in the runoff, although his lead has dwindled in polling.
The poll is sketchy — there’s no way the Republican nominee is going to get less than 35 percent in a general election in Texas. Also, polling in Texas generally overestimates Democratic support. However, this should get Republicans’ attention and impress upon them just how bad 2026 could be for the party in general.
