The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 16
April 20, 2026
This week:
- Conservatives want a “Two Big Beautiful Bill”
- Swalwell is gone, but Democrats’ California problem remains
- Dem primary voters reject establishment candidates
Outlook
Reconciliation 2.0: With congressional Democrats still blockading Homeland Security funding for agencies such as the Coast Guard, it is increasingly clear that Congress’s only viable path to fully funding the federal government will be a second reconciliation package, which can pass the Senate with a simple majority vote instead of a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority.
The second reconciliation bill is in its early negotiation stage. Conservatives, seeing this as probably Trump’s last chance to pass meaningful legislation before Democrats win back House control, are hoping for a more expansive “Two Big Beautiful Bill,” so to speak, that includes tax and spending measures. Senate leaders, in contrast, are attempting to limit the bill’s scope and keep it to funding the government only, in order to avoid complications in passage.
Meanwhile, in a related development, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who always has his hands full passing anything with his narrow Republican majority, may get some extra wiggle-room due to the potential expulsion of the indicted Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) as soon as this week. The House Ethics Committee found that 25 of the 27 charges against her had been proven, although its evidentiary standard is not necessarily as strict as the one required for a criminal conviction. If Cherfilus-McCormick is indeed expelled, Republicans (including independent Rep. Kevin Kiley of California) will end up with an effective majority of 218 to 212.
Iran resolution? Last week’s events convinced world financial markets, if not all liberal-leaning pundits, that the Iran operation has been a success and that there is a method to the madness of what President Trump is attempting there. That could turn out very well for him politically, assuming the operation comes to a successful conclusion and the U.S. does not suffer any catastrophic losses at sea.
Oil prices plummeted late last week and now remain in the mid-$80s instead of above $100 per barrel. Not coincidentally, stock indices reached new record highs, with the S&P 500 surmounting 7,100.
Trump’s approval polling is persistently bad. But when people put their money where their mouths are like this, it is a sign that the fear and uncertainty underpinning the brief Iran War bombing campaign are receding. That puts a whole category of political fears to rest as well, as there is hope for a negotiated end to the Iran conflict that accomplishes Trump’s goal of preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power.
In addition, looking back to the beginning of the second Trump presidency, there does appear to be a coherent grand strategy involving U.S. control of the world’s naval chokepoints in advance of a potential conflict with China over Taiwan. This explains more about the early Trump 2.0 obsession with purchasing or at least controlling the Panama Canal, as well as his current seizure of the Strait of Hormuz and blockade of Iranian shipping. Combined with the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca (between Singapore and the Indonesian island of Sumatra), these four chokepoints account for about 70 percent of international commerce and, crucially, more than 80 percent of China’s energy imports.
Governor 2026
California: Aside from the continuing moral problem of Rep. Eric Swalwell’s (D) heretofore successful candidacy — a moral problem that threatens other careers as well — Democrats now find themselves with an even deeper political problem.
Facing a pile-up in this race that could leave them locked out of the general election, they successfully tanked their own frontrunner’s political career and life with multiple credible charges of sexual misconduct and even rape from various accusers. But the result so far has been anything but neat for them. A new survey from Emerson College shows Swalwell’s leftover support dividing almost evenly between four different Democratic candidates — billionaire anti-global warming campaigner Tom Steyer (D), former Rep. Katie Porter (D), former state attorney general and HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra (D), and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (D). The entire point of getting Swalwell out of the race was to consolidate support, but this does not appear to be happening.
Two Republicans — former British Conservative Party aide Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — lead in the Emerson poll with 17 and 14 points, respectively. If the May jungle primary were to finish in that orde, Hilton and Bianco would face one another in the general election, guaranteeing a Republican victory.
Of the four Democrats seriously in the running, Steyer has the best chance of finishing in teh top two and preventing an all-Republican general election. But the political apparatus surrounding term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), which up to now had been mostly backing Swalwell, is reportedly coalescing behind Becerra instead. Becerra — a former congressman who was a total non-entity throughout his entire tenure as Health and Human Services secretary under Joe Biden — has until now been an asterisk in this race. It will not be easy for him to come out of nowhere and overcome Steyer’s massive self-financing advantage.
Senate 2026
Maine: Democratic frontrunner Graham Platner’s productivity on Reddit continues to pay dividends — for his opponents, of course. In earlier episodes, we learned about him running about shirtless with his Nazi tattoo, disparaging rural Mainers as racis, and and calling himself an “Antifa super-solder.” But there is a treasure-trove of deleted posts yet to drop. In one, he also praised Hamas for its tactical acumen against Israel in 2014. “I dig it,” he summed up.
In today’s Democratic primary, whose voters despise everything about Israel and view it increasingly unfavorably, this will probably only help him. But in the long run and in the broader general election race, this and many other yet-to-be-unearthed posts could be less helpful.
According to multiple surveys, Platner is trouncing Gov. Janet Mills (D) for the nomination to take on incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R).
Michigan: A new poll in yet another state provides yet another example of Democrats rejecting the party establishment’s preordained nominee. Rep. Haley Stevens (D), having fallen since January to just 13 points support, is trailing former Wayne County health official Abdul El-Sayed (D) and far-left state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D), who each stand at 24 percent support, according to a new survey. El-Sayed has recently attained some notoriety for campaigning with Twitch streamer Hasan Piker, a marxist extremist who praises Hamas and says that America deserved 9/11.
House 2026
Virginia: Despite two more polls showing the Democratic gerrymandering referendum succeeding narrowly, Republicans continue to express optimism about their chances of “No” prevailing through higher turnout in the state’s southern and western rural areas, despite overwhelming spending on behalf of the “Yes” side. Election Day is tomorrow, and turnout will be very low.
A loss in this referendum would further and probably irreparably damage the image of Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D), whose approval rating has already plummeted thanks in part to this gerrymandering effort.
