Vol. XIV, Issue 17
Apr. 27, 2026
This week:
- Republicans’ consolation after Virginia loss
- South Carolina governor race headed to runoff with a close finish
- Republican Senate candidate hit with a 50-year restraining order
Outlook
Trump assassination attempt: Even if its political ramifications are not immediately obvious, the third assassination attempt against President Trump cannot go unmentioned. Where right-wing militias may have been a threat in the past, leftist revolutionary ideology seems to be an increasingly prominent cause of political violence today.
One could view this with some cynicism and say it may offer Republicans another chance to “wave the bloody shirt,” as the old expression goes. But in truth, it is a scary trend because some people really do appear to believe that their political beliefs justify killing other people.
Gerrymandering referendum: It is a bitter defeat for Republicans to have Democrats’ Virginia pro-gerrymandering referendum pass so narrowly — by just 3 percentage points — given that the Republican side put so little into the contest in terms of campaign resources.
As a result of the “yes” vote, Democrats will go from easily winning six of eleven U.S. House seats in the Commonwealth to winning ten out of eleven.
However, there are a couple of silver linings here for Republicans.
First, it seems quite possible that the referendum result will be overturned in the state Supreme Court, having already been barred from taking effect at the lower court level. That process will take time to unfold, but there is some advantage in having it take place after the referendum passed, exposing the cynicism of its supporters — particularly Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger.
Second, the levels of turnout in this race actually hold forth some hope for Republicans. It may be a limited consolation, but rural voters, particularly in the western portion of the state, turned out at astounding rates despite minimal investment to avoid being disenfranchised by Democrats. In some counties, they turned out for this low-profile referendum in higher absolute numbers than they had in last year’s much higher-profile governor’s race.
This does at least prove that Republicans greatest secret fear might be surmountable — namely, that the party’s increasingly working-class base of support can be made to turn out to vote even when President Trump is not on the ballot. This is of course important since he will never be on any ballot again.
Further action: Third, Republicans on the national level are looking for further consolation in states that may redistrict in the wake of an anticipated U.S. Supreme Court ruling on racial gerrymandering. The Supreme Court is set to rule any day in Louisiana v. Callais, a case that could fix the court’s rather inconsistent jurisprudence on whether deliberate racial gerrymandering is constitutionally permissible.
If the current precedent is overturned as expected, several Republican-controlled states — especially Florida, but also Alabama, South Carolina, and Mississippi — would have the opportunity to take another bite at the apple and get rid of tortured weirdly-shaped districts designed not to preserve communities of interest or geographically compact areas but rather specifically to elect non-white candidates. That could effectively cancel out the Virginia result even if it takes effect, and then some.
Louisiana itself, the subject of the court challenge, appears locked in to using its current congressional map this year, although that could change for 2028.
Even so, it should be noted that Democrats have every historical trend in their favor right now. Given that a Republican occupies the White House, and given their clear lead in generic ballot polling, they remain heavily favored to retake the U.S. House, with or without Republican redistricting efforts.
Governor 2026
South Carolina: The state’s June 9 Republican primary for governor, which could create a national political career for someone, will almost certainly go to a runoff. The question is who makes it. A new poll of the race out last week — apparently the first whose results have been made public in about a month — suggests that any two of the five leading candidates might make it.
The most likely to reach a prospective runoff would be Attorney General Alan Wilson (R), but behind him is a cluster of four candidates ranging between 10 and 14 percent support. Among them is high-profile Rep. Nancy Mace (R), who will defy Trump-era trends if she wins a party primary after voting to impeach Trump. Also in the running is Rep. Ralph Norman (R) and Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (R). Wilson would be slightly favored to win a runoff against any of them.
Senate 2026
Kansas: Will he run as a Democrat, or as an independent? And which one do Democrats want him to do?
Just as they are doing in Nebraska and Montana this year, Democrats may stage yet another faux-independent candidacy in an effort to make a Senate race more competitive where their party brand is just too toxic to win statewide. Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton (I), who says he voted against the state’s pro-life Value Them Both referendum in 2022, has reportedly consulted with term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D) about running for Senate against Sen. Roger Marshall (R).
June 1 is the deadline for changing one’s party affiliation ahead of this year’s election; the primary will be held August 4.
Minnesota: Former NBA star and perennial candidate Royce White (R) lost a bid earlier this month to overturn the third restraining order lodged against him, which was issued in February. Pending appeal, White is barred from contacting his ex-wife for the next 50 years and his teen son for two years due to allegations of severe domestic abuse against each of them.
White was crushed in his 2024 Senate run against incumbent Senator (this year’s frontrunner for governor) Amy Klobuchar (D).
He complains that the charges are political and he is just being punished for appropriately disciplining his son for bad behavior. There have been no police reports, physical evidence of abuse or criminal charges against him. However, witnesses did testify in hearings that upheld this third restraining order earlier this month.
The state Republican Party would certainly like to get White out of this race so that they can nominate someone more electable for a change — perhaps former sports journalist Michelle Tafoya (R) — against the far-left frontrunning Democrat Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D).
Also in the Republican primary are Navy SEAL veteran Adam Schwarze (R) and former state party chairman and state Senate leader David Hann (R).
