The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 9
Mar. 3, 2025
This week:
- Trump’s big speech is tomorrow
- Democrats still threaten a government shutdown
- Will CNN’s Scott Jennings run for Senate?
Outlook
Trump’s Address to Congress: Trump’s first address to a joint session of Congress as the 47th U.S. president — essentially a State of the Union speech, although officially not called that — is tomorrow night. The occasion offers him a tremendous opportunity to promote everything he is doing directly to the public, without a media filter, still using the broadcasting tools of the legacy media.
Just 40 days into his presidency, Trump already has a formidable list of accomplishments he can talk about about, including shutting down more than 95 percent of illegal border crossings, deporting thousands of criminals, ending DEI, preserving women’s sports for women only, and ending indefensible government contracts through Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.
Trump will also have an opportunity to speak to voters and pressure Democratic members of Congress into voting for his tax and spending agenda when the final budget reconciliation bill emerges, including the extension of the tax cut and tax simplification law he signed in 2017 and its expansion to include tax exemptions for tips and overtime pay. Democrats are on shaky ground here using the old stock arguments to oppose it — for all their talk of Trump cutting taxes for billionaires, literally no billionaire works for tips or overtime pay.
Trump has a genuine opportunity to be presidential here — to stand above the fray and give his vision for the future. There will be an enormous temptation to spend most of his time attacking Democrats — knowing Trump, he will probably succumb to that temptation to some degree. But Trump would do better to avoid letting them steal his spotlight here. He is currently at the height of his popularity and therefore has no need to attack an opposition that still seems profoundly lost, shell-shocked, and surprisingly incapable of countering anything he is doing. Democrats at this point lack a recognizable leader and a coherent message. Things are so bad for them right now that they are launching some crazy, bizarre and off-brand trial balloons as talking-points — for example, threatening a government shutdown (see below) and attacking Elon Musk for being an immigrant.
Budget Impasse: The more controversial question hanging over everyone’s head, and which Trump really should address while speaking to Congress, is the looming March 14 deadline to pass a funding bill to keep the government running.
The easiest thing would be to vote on a simple continuing resolution to keep agencies open through the end of the fiscal year (Sept. 30), to give the Congress time to work on Trump’s agenda and pass appropriations bills through regular order. Indeed, this is the approach Trump has advocated, and it is probably the only practical way of handling this in the next two weeks.
Yet continuing resolutions have rightfully gotten a bad rap. There is very little appetite among conservatives for this kick-the-can-down-the-road approach, which has been Congress’s modus operandi for several years now. This means that passage of a spending bill may require another magic trick by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who will almost certainly require Trump’s help yet again.
On the other side of the issue, Democrats are trying to force concessions in the form of limitations on Trump within the legislation. The most Republicans would probably be willing to do in this regard is to hold amendment votes that fail. If Democrats are unhappy with this, they can always shut down the government, and indeed, some of them are openly threatening to do so if they don’t get concessions.
There is no living memory of Democrats shutting the government down, and there is every reason to think it would be an own-goal if they did it. That means things could become very interesting. There is, however, a strong Republican incentive to avoid such an outcome, as it would make their party seem impotent and incompetent, giving the impression that despite controlling Washington, they cannot govern. It would therefore be very unwise to give Democrats oxygen in this manner at a moment when they are metaphorically suffocating.
Senate Democrats currently possess the absolute power to shut the government down by filibuster, but they are viewed as unlikely to do that. House Democrats, on the other hand, almost possess the power to shut the government down and they seem willing — it all depends on how united Republicans are around the bitter pill of a continuing resolution. Given that some conservative Republicans (particularly Kentucky’s Rep. Thomas Massie) are likely to vote against anything, Johnson has his work cut out for him.
Ukraine: Last week’s big news was the confrontation between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Trump. What was supposed to be a cordial meeting and a ceremonial signing of an agreement on rare earth minerals in Ukraine instead became an international incident. Zelensky attempted to lecture Trump and Vice President JD Vance, and they with vociferous objections.
Zelensky had met with Democrats — at least with Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) — just before this confrontation. There are at least rumors that they discouraged Zelensky from signing the deal.
Regardless of the broader geopolitical ramifications of this blow-up — which may already be resolved by the time of publication — the politics of this is going to be largely insignificant. Americans are famously oblivious to foreign policy. The percentage who will lose sleep over Ukraine one way or the other is minuscule.
Moreover, the subset of Americans who do care about this are at least slightly more likely to be hostile toward the idea of large war expenditures when there is a $36 trillion debt and Social Security and Medicare are on the brink of fiscal insolvency.
Governor 2026
Maine: State Rep. Laurel Libby (R), having been officially censured by Maine’s legislature for defending girls’ and women’s sports from male intrusion, has launched what looks suspiciously like a 2026 campaign for governor.
Given how well this specific issue worked out for the Trump campaign in 2024 — it was a constant staple of television advertising, especially during sports games — it is already minting new Republican Mainers.
Gov. Janet Mills (D), who had a high-profile confrontation with Trump on this exact issue, is term-limited. Even so, Democrats in the state are as hard-headed on this issue as they are anywhere and highly unlikely to change their stripes.
They would probably be incapable of nominating someone moderate enough to dodge this bullet, such as Second District U.S. Rep. Jared Golden (D), in a normal voting process. However, their ranked-choice voting system might just bail them out if the race becomes crowded.
Senate 2026
Kentucky: Some Republicans are trying to push viral media sensation Scott Jennings (R) into Kentucky’s open-seat Senate race. Jennings, a CNN commentator who has built up quite a brand since the election arguing with his liberal co-panelists, would be entering a crowded field that already includes former Attorney General and failed 2023 gubernatorial candidate Daniel Cameron (R) and may also include Reps. Andy Barr (R) and possibly libertarian-leaning Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) as well.
New Hampshire: Former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) could sweep in and pick up a Senate seat for Republicans, but it would be a hard sell. He leads by nine points in a new poll over Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). Although Shaheen’s age (78) is apparently becoming a serious issue for Granite State voters, she easily leads all comers except Sununu.
Republicans’ efforts to recruit him to run for Senate in 2022 ended in a spectacular failure, with Sununu openly denouncing the idea of becoming a mere roadblock to the Biden administration and criticizing Senate Republicans. Is there any chance that Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) might change the former governor’s mind and make him feel better about a Senate bid now, that Republicans will have a shot at doing some real policymaking?
