The president is doing his level best, in spite of himself, to ensure a sweeping midterm victory for the Republican Party. Or so it may seem to the casual observer.
Added to the already basement-level approval numbers, bad positioning on difficult issues, and botched handling of scandalous agencies are Obama’s gift-wrapped quotes that are nearly made-for-TV soundbites which Republicans are happy to employ in the unending barrage of attacks against their Democrat opponents as “Obama pals.”
As the Cook Report has pointed out, the ads are effective both in motivating angry Republican electorate and moving disaffected Independents to the right just ahead of the Nov. 4th elections.
According to an Oct. 12 NBC/WSJ poll, approval of Obamacare lingers near the all-time low with 48% of voters still opposing the law. Add that to the disapproval over foreign policy, immigration, the economy and now Ebola and the recipe for Democrat disaster is made.
There consistently remain 9 or 10 states in the RCP toss-up category, with daily release of new polls. However, Obama continues to be a drag on Democrats and a motivation for Republicans, which underscores the electoral reality: that wherever there is a close race, GOP turnout should make the difference.
Unless unexpected details on the ground effect the election on the day of, this reality gives confidence to the GOP despite that it is either barely leading, tied or even behind a few points in Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina (Arkansas was recently moved to ‘leans-GOP’ status.)
With at least four near certain victories for the party, the GOP only needs five more seats to cross the all-important line for 51 seats. Republicans could lose nearly half of the toss-ups and still take control of the Senate. But with polls continuing to trend their way, that is a very unlikely scenario.
