A potential Republican turnout advantage in the Nov. 4th election could be the deciding factor in whether the party is successful in its coup against Senate Democrats.
Now, a new poll looks to be confirming that speculation. A Fox News poll from last week showed 72% of Republican voters as ‘Extremely’ or ‘Very’ interested in the election compared to the 59% among Democrats. A full 45% of Republican voters polled as ‘extremely’ interested in the election compared to a meager 30% among Democrats
The poll underscores results previously published by Gallup showing very similar numbers. In both polls Republican voters have a deep double-digit lead in terms of engagement in the election.
Additionally, Ebola is a wild card which could break for the Republicans. Not only are Republicans poll interested in the election and likely to vote, but they are also most concerned about the disease and the U.S. ability to cope.
What these numbers tell is a story of higher expected turnout in favor of the Republican candidates. Democrat voters historically turnout less in midterms already, but this election cycle in particular may be a new low.
An internal memo from Democrats over the weekend indicated that the election would be a disaster for the party if black voters failed to turnout as they have in previous elections. And that prediction looks to be all the more a reality.
Ultimately, should these numbers hold, any Senate or gubernatorial race that is in a statistical dead heat or better for the Republican candidate should be expected to fall into the red column by the end of the night on November 4th.