The upcoming election for Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District is one of the most interesting races in the country. Justin Amash shocked everyone in 2019 when he became the only Republican in Congress to call for the impeachment of the President. He eventually would go on to leave the Republican Party, and is not seeking re-election.
The battle to replace Amash is between Republican Peter Meijer and Democrat Hillary Scholten. It’s a district that has not elected a Democrat since the Watergate Era, but in 2020, the race for Michigan’s 3rd is looking a lot closer than Republicans would like it to be.
Although many pollsters consider this race to be a toss-up, or leaning slightly Republican, Strategic National released a poll showing Democrat Hillary Scholten with an edge.
Strategic National was one of the only firms in the country to correctly poll the 2016 Michigan General Election. They credit this to identifying a trend that 0 of 4 voters (voters who had never voted in a Presidential election) were inspired to vote for President Trump. They took this into account in their voter pool whereas other pollsters left them out.
In 2020, the main trend they are seeing is more people self-identifying as Democrats. Strategic National says they typically weight poll samples by political party very little, if at all, because allowing the party identification to float typically is most reflective of an election cycle’s final result.
However, raw samples in Michigan’s 3rd District are coming back substantially more Democrat than history suggests. This is why Strategic National released two variations of the poll with different models used in each.
The first is a floating model which takes a random sample, which came back Democrat +4. They believe this model must be strongly considered, because of the trend where more voters are self-identifying as Democrat, and because Kent County, the highest populated county in Michigan’s 3rd has gone Democrat on a few occasions in recent years.
The second model is a weighted version of the sample as Republican +4. This version would be more in line with those who believe the district still leans Republican, and give no credence to the trend that more voters are self-identifying as Democrat.
The random Democrat +4 model has Scholten up 8 points, with 50% support to Meijer’s 42%. Scholten’s image is also much stronger, with 49% favorable and 30% unfavorable (+19) to Meijer’s 37% favorable and 39% unfavorable (-2).
The weighted Republican +4 model has Scholten and Meijer both with 46% of the vote. Scholten is still stronger when it comes to candidate image, with 46% favorable and 33% unfavorable (+13) to Meijer’s 42% favorable and 37% unfavorable (+5).
The poll shows 40-41% of voters in the district claim to have already voted. Strategic National points to the fact that the Meijer campaign was outspent by Scholten on television almost 2-1 in the month of September. In this time, she was able to brand Meijer as a “rich kid” son of a billionaire and brand herself as more of a moderate Democrat.
They say that because of the high percentage of absentee voters, this election was likely won or lost in September. Although National Republicans and Super PACs are now attempting to make up for lost time with heavy TV buys, it could be too late.
Regardless of which model one is to believe, neither is a good sign for West Michigan Republicans. It’s been obvious for many months that a record number of voters would vote early by mail due to the pandemic and easier access to absentee ballots.
Strategic National is not the only firm with a poll showing Meijer struggling. MIRS News reported Practical Political Consultants’ Mark Grebner had Scholten up double digits.
Strategic National says there is a chance Meijer could still win the election, but the strategic failure in September unnecessarily put this seat at risk and cost donors hundreds of thousands of dollars in October that would have been better spent to elect John James or President Trump.
Poll Results
MI-3 General Election Results (+4 Democrat)
Conducted: October 15-17, 2020
Number of Respondents: 400
MoE: ±4.9%
Q. How likely are you to vote in the General Election this November?
| Certain to vote | 96% |
| Likely to vote | 3% |
| 50/50 chance | 1% |
| Total | 100% |
Now I would like to ask your opinion of a few people who are active in politics. Let’s begin with President Donald Trump.
Q. Do you have a Favorable or Unfavorable opinion of Republican Donald Trump?
| Very Favorable | 33% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 10% |
| No Opinion | 5% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 2% |
| Very Unfavorable | 50% |
| Total | 100% |
Q. Democrat Joe Biden
| Very Favorable | 29% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 25% |
| No Opinion | 7% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 5% |
| Very Unfavorable | 34% |
| Total | 100% |
Q. Republican Peter Meijer
| Very Favorable | 20% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 17% |
| No Opinion | 24% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 15% |
| Very Unfavorable | 24% |
| Total | 100% |
Q. Democrat Hillary Scholten
| Very Favorable | 28% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 21% |
| No Opinion | 21% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 9% |
| Very Unfavorable | 21% |
| Total | 100% |
Q. And if you were to vote in the 2020 election would you prefer to do it by mail or in person?
| Already voted by mail | 41% |
| Plan to vote by mail | 9% |
| Plan to vote in person | 47% |
| Not sure | 3% |
| Total | 100% |
Q. If the General Election for President was held today, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden?
| Democrat Joe Biden | 52% |
| Republican Donald Trump | 41% |
| Undecided | 7% |
| Total | 100% |
Q. If the General Election for U.S. Congress was held today, would you vote for Republican Peter Meijer or Democrat Hillary Scholten?
| Democrat Hillary Scholten | 50% |
| Republican Peter Meijer | 42% |
| Undecided | 8% |
| Total | 100% |
Demographics Type of Phone
| Landline | 60% |
| Cellphone | 40% |
| Total | 100% |
Age
| 18 to 35 | 21% |
| 36 to 49 | 25% |
| 50 to 64 | 28% |
| 65 or older | 26% |
| Total | 100% |
Gender
| Male | 48% |
| Female | 52% |
| Total | 100% |
Party
| Republican | 31% |
| Democrat | 35% |
| Independent/Something Else | 30% |
| Don’t Know | 4% |
| Total | 100% |
Type of Republican
| Trump/America First | 75% | ||
| Traditional/Establishment | 9% | ||
| TEA Party | 3% | ||
| Social Conservative | 7% | ||
| Libertarian | 3% | ||
| Some Other Part/Don’t Know | 4% | ||
| Total | 100% | ||
General Vote History
| 0 | 6% |
| 1 | 10% |
| 2 | 10% |
| 3 | 18% |
| 4 | 56% |
| Total | 100% |
Political Ideology
| Very conservative | 17% |
| Somewhat conservative | 21% |
| Moderate | 31% |
| Liberal | 23% |
| Unsure | 7% |
| Total | 100% |
County
| BARRY | 9% |
| CALHOUN | 17% |
| IONIA | 8% |
| KENT | 66% |
| MONTCALM | 1% |
| Total | 100% |
MI-3 General Election Results (+4 Republican)
Conducted: October 15-17, 2020
Number of Respondents: 400
MoE: ±4.9%
Q. How likely are you to vote in the General Election this November?
| Certain to vote | 96% |
| Likely to vote | 3% |
| 50/50 chance | <1% |
| Total | 100% |
Now I would like to ask your opinion of a few people who are active in politics. Let’s begin with President Donald Trump.
Q. Do you have a Favorable or Unfavorable opinion of Republican Donald Trump?
| Very Favorable | 37% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 10% |
| No Opinion | 5% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 2% |
| Very Unfavorable | 46% |
| Total | 100% |
Q. Democrat Joe Biden
| Very Favorable | 28% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 23% |
| No Opinion | 6% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 6% |
| Very Unfavorable | 37% |
| Total | 100% |
Q. Republican Peter Meijer
| Very Favorable | 23% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 19% |
| No Opinion | 22% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 14% |
| Very Unfavorable | 23% |
| Total | 100% |
Q. Democrat Hillary Scholten
| Very Favorable | 26% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 20% |
| No Opinion | 20% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 9% |
| Very Unfavorable | 24% |
| Total | 100% |
Q. And if you were to vote in the 2020 election would you prefer to do it by mail or in person?
| Already voted by mail | 40% |
| Plan to vote by mail | 9% |
| Plan to vote in person | 48% |
| Not sure | 3% |
| Total | 100% |
Q. If the General Election for President was held today, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden?
| Democrat Joe Biden | 48% |
| Republican Donald Trump | 45% |
| Undecided | 7% |
| Total | 100% |
Q. If the General Election for U.S. Congress was held today, would you vote for Republican Peter Meijer or Democrat Hillary Scholten?
| Republican Peter Meijer | 46% |
| Democrat Hillary Scholten | 46% |
| Undecided | 7% |
| Total | 100% |
Demographics Type of Phone
| Landline | 60% |
| Cellphone | 40% |
| Total | 100% |
Age
| 18 to 35 | 21% |
| 36 to 49 | 25% |
| 50 to 64 | 28% |
| 65 or older | 26% |
| Total | 100% |
Gender
| Male | 48% |
| Female | 52% |
| Total | 100% |
Party
| Republican | 38% | ||
| Democrat | 34% | ||
| Independent/Something Else | 25% | ||
| Don’t Know | 3% | ||
| Total | 100% | ||
Type of Republican
| Trump/America First | 74% |
| Traditional/Establishment | 10% |
| TEA Party | 3% |
| Social Conservative | 7% |
| Libertarian | 3% |
| Some Other Part/Don’t Know | 4% |
| Total | 100% |
General Vote History
| 0 | 6% |
| 1 | 9% |
| 2 | 10% |
| 3 | 18% |
| 4 | 56% |
| Total | 100% |
Political Ideology
| Very conservative | 20% |
| Somewhat conservative | 23% |
| Moderate | 28% |
| Liberal | 22% |
| Unsure | 6% |
| Total | 100% |
County
| BARRY | 9% |
| CALHOUN | 17% |
| IONIA | 8% |
| KENT | 66% |
| MONTCALM | 1% |
| Total | 100% |
