The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 25
June 23, 2025
This week:
- Trump’s Iran attack shows strains in his coalition
- “Bipartisan” redistricting law may lead to a much more partisan Ohio map
- Kamala Harris is seriously thinking about running for CA-GOV
Outlook
Israel-Iran War: The U.S. bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites is obviously the big development of last week. It is likely something most voters — especially most Trump voters — did not have on their bingo card for the second Trump administration.
Although the military objectives appear to have been successfully attained, there is a significant minority of Trump’s base that is fully outraged by this turn of events, comprising such libertarian and paleo-conservative figures as Tucker Carlson and Dave Smith but also more mainstream Republican voices such as Charlie Kirk. Trump, they argue, ran as precisely the candidate who would not involve the U.S. in more wars, so this represents an actual betrayal.
Among this segment of Trump’s 2024 support base, various figures have gone to smaller or greater (Dave Smith went so far as to say he has “self-deported” from MAGA) lengths in expressing their level of disappointment. Among the less ideologically committed opponents of war with Iran, there is still a strong sense that the lessons of the Iraq War are already being forgotten just 20 years later — that officials are expressing the same ill-fated optimism about changing the regime in Tehran and about what such a change will bring afterward.
Of course, many Republicans don’t mind or even support this level of involvement in Israel’s war with Iran. Beyond the ones who do not feel too strongly one way or the other, some also support Trump’s uncharacteristically bellicose calls for U.S.-assisted regime-change in Iran. These argue that Iran has a stronger pre-1979 tradition as a modern society and economy, and that it has a much better chance of succeeding after a regime change than less developed and “civilized” societies such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, or Syria where regime-change either failed totally or seems to be failing now.
Resisting the temptation: There is one saving grace to this Iran intervention that did not exist in some of those others. Namely, U.S. involvement is minimal, so far limited only to striking the nuclear facilities. The involvement is so small that no one in the Trump administration even bothered to develop a line of pro-war propaganda ahead of it.
This is the reason Trump will likely emerge from this relatively unscathed, provided that he only resists the temptation to become more deeply involved. The one unifying lesson of every U.S.-involved war since Vietnam (including the Gulf War, which was controversially halted once Iraqi troops had been driven out of Kuwait) has been that less is more, and more almost always leads to a disaster.
Mayor 2025
New York City: Although it is nominally a very crowded race, tomorrow’s Democratic primary is essentially a two-man contest between disgraced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) and far-left socialist state Rep. Zohran Mamdani (D), who is running on a platform of price controls, going even softer on criminals, and government-run grocery stores, among other things.
The only real chance Mayor Eric Adams has in his general re-election run (as an independent now) is that Mamdani wins the Democratic primary and New Yorkers are revulsed to the point that enough Democrats and nearly all Republicans decide they would rather stick with the status quo. Even then, Adams is probably still an electorally dead man walking.
Tomorrow’s result will be delayed by the arcane ranked-choice system that New York City adopted several years ago. That system and its creation of artificial majorities may be Cuomo’s best hope, in a race that has seen all of the momentum shift to Mamdani.
House 2026
Ohio: Under Ohio’s redistricting laws, only maps that pass with bipartisan support are allowed to last the full decade from census to census. The idea was probably to support bipartisan maps. Instead, however, this provision will likely now encourage Republicans to go for broke and shore up their House majority by redrawing Ohio from a 10-5 Republican delegation into a 12-3 or 13-2 configuration. That means a swing of two or three seats in the Republicans’ direction, starting with the Toledo-area seat (currently a swing seat) of Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) and the Akron-area-seat of Rep. Emilia Sykes (D), each of which Democrats retained with only the narrowest of majorities in their current incarnations.
Governor 2026
California: Golden State Democrats, be terrified: Kamala Harris (D) is taking a serious look at running for governor. As The Hill reports, “Those who have spoken to Harris about the possibility of entering the race say it has given her a renewed sense of excitement and, as one source put it, ‘a glimmer in her eyes.’”
If there’s any way for Democrats to lose a statewide race in California, it probably starts with Harris getting past the first-round primary and facing any Republican who isn’t a total buffoon. So far, Republicans have no prominent declared candidates.
South Carolina: Amid more and more public accusations against various people by putative gubernatorial candidate Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) in recent months, Rep. Ralph Norman (R) has put out the word that he will be announcing late next month. He had previously said the odds he would get into the race were “65 percent.” With Gov. Henry McMaster (R) term-limited out, Norman will face at least Attorney General Alan Wilson (R) and perhaps others.
Senate 2026
Louisiana: Trump’s revenge tour continues: The primary election to face Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who voted for Trump’s second impeachment, keeps getting more crowded, and his prospects bleaker. State Treasurer John Fleming (R) has already been in the race for some time, and now state Sen. Blake Miguez (R) is the second to declare officially. Cassidy will need a majority to win renomination, either in the April 18 primary or the subsequent May 30 runoff election.
