The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 24
June 16, 2025
This week:
- Polling on Trump seems fundamentally broken
- Democrats’ loss of privilege still sinking in
- Buddy Carter lays his claim to frontrunner status in GA-SEN
Outlook
Anti-Trump rallies: Democrats are still feeling the loss of privilege that came with the simultaneous loss in late 2024 and early 2025 of political power, government funding for their non-profit organizations, and media and cultural power over public opinion — and it shows.
The latest result of this was the “No Kings” rallies in major cities over the weekend. On their face, these gatherings would uphold the nation’s small-r republican character. But of course, such a protest doesn’t go over quite as well coming from a party whose stakeholders tried transparently to use lawfare to illegally purge President Donald Trump from state ballots, to sue him into oblivion and to imprison him for the rest of his life based on unprecedented charges for which no one else would ever have been prosecuted.
In the cases of the Democratic governors supporting this movement, many of them arrested normal people for merely trying to live their lives during COVID. So in short, these are not people concerned in any genuine sense about civil rights or the nation’s republican character.
The parade celebrating the U.S. Army’s 250th anniversary was turned into the immediate occasion for these nationwide protests against Trump, deemed “his vanity parade” and a parade celebrating his own birthday.
But in truth, last weekend’s protests were probably less noteworthy than even the earlier “Hands Off” protests, driven largely by government workers in early April.
Polling: The polling is difficult to read because it suggests a serious fragmentation in the opinion-measuring landscape. The media polls, which are generally more established but did a poor job of predicting the election outcome in 2024, show Trump with a net disapproval in the double digits. This includes the NBC Decision Desk poll released over the weekend (minus-ten but also almost a week old by the time it was released), as well as the Quinnipiac Poll from early last week (minus-16). However, the less-established polls that were nonetheless closer to predicting the outcome of the 2024 election — including Quantus, RMG and Rasmussen — find a range between Trump having a net-positive approval rating as high as plus-8 and a statistically insignificant net-negative rating.
There doesn’t seem to be any reconciling of the two groups, or even a trend that unifies the direction they have been taking. We do not like the idea of choosing polls that offer a more friendly result, but things have gotten out of hand, with the net-approval spread between Trump’s best and worst rating in the last week up to 24 points.
Even absent a clearly reliable measurement of public opinion, we fail to detect a credible amount of concern outside of political extremists about the deportation of criminal aliens. This is why we believe that the immediate situation, which involves the rioting in Los Angeles to prevent deportation of mostly violent criminals, is not playing out any better for Democrats this week than it was last week.
Lack of footing: Trump is far from invincible, of course. He must still be regarded as likely to lose congressional control in next fall’s midterms.
However, Democrats still seem unable to accept their predicament and unwilling to do the sort of rethinking of public positions that would be necessary to change their situation.
Their main problem persists — namely, their own party’s continued unpopularity and the unwillingness of most voters to embrace their idea that American democracy is about to end because they lost an election.
Given their obstinate unwillingness to accept the reasons they lost in 2024, this problem shows no signs of abating, and it wouldn’t end with the marginal gains that would be required for them to take control of the U.S. House.
Governor 2025
Virginia: Tuesday’s primary has no real implications for the governor’s race, in which both parties already have nominees. U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) is the favorite this fall against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R).
The more interesting contest is the down-ballot race for attorney general, which may affect a future race for governor.
Historically, it is not uncommon for Virginia voters to create narrow splits in the races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. Incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) has a lock on the GOP nomination for re-election. Democrats will be choosing between two potential nominees — former state Rep. Jay Jones, a repeat candidate for the position and the more “woke” option, and longtime Henrico County (Richmond) Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor (D).
Senate 2026
Georgia: Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) (no relation to the late president from Georgia) seems to be trying to send the message to other potential entrants into next year’s governor’s race that he is the frontrunner, don’t bother. His campaign has released a poll showing him in the lead with 27 percent over two major potential candidates who have not officially committed to running — including Rep. Mike Collins (18 percent) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (10 percent) — and one who has, Insurance Commissioner John King (2 percent).
Up to now, there have been noises from Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and the Trump White House about working together to find a stronger candidate than Carter, even though Carter is a dogged supporter of Trump.
If no one receives 50 percent in the first round then the eventual Republican nominee will have to win a runoff with a majority of 50 percent plus one vote.
Meanwhile, an effort by pro-Trump delegates at the state Republican convention over the weekend to keep Raffensperger off the ballot has been panned by the state party chairman on the grounds that such a move would probably be illegal. Raffensperger incurred the wrath of Trump and his fan base in 2020 when he refused to help Trump overturn Joe Biden’s victory in Georgia.
Illinois: Illinois Alliance of Boys and Girls Clubs CEO Awisi Bustos (D), soon to be-ex-dauther-in-law of former Rep. Cheri Bustos (D), is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by incumbent Dick Durbin (D). She has been openly dis-endorsed by former Rep. Bustos, a former DCCC Chairwoman who represented the Quad Cities area of Illinois.
This rates as a bizarre sideshow in a race with much stronger Democratic candidates such as Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly.
Maine: It probably won’t be this easy for her, but new reports from the Pine Tree State suggest that Sen. Susan Collins could find herself up against David Costello, who ran last year as a Democrat against Sen. Angus King (I). Democrats are trying to get Gov. Janet Mills (D) into the race, but she has refused to commit so far.
South Carolina: If South Carolina Democrats want, they may have the opportunity to nominate a formerly pro-Trump conservative Republican congressman from suburban Chicago — Joe Walsh, who has moved, switched parties, and expressed interest in running for their nomination against Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).
