The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 15
April 13, 2026
This week:
- Trump’s gamble in Iran gets even bigger
- The convenient implosion of Eric Swalwell
- Platner still trouncing Mills, new poll shows
Outlook
Iran: Perhaps the remnants of Iran’s regime listened to too many Western media reports and consequently thought they had Trump over a barrel with their apparent ability to block oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. They apparently felt confident therefore in breaking off peace talks. So Trump flipped the script over the weekend, announcing his own blockade of the strait.
The U.S., he stated, will block passage by any tanker that pays Iran “illegal tolls” to pass through. Meanwhile, he will try to gain full control of the strait.
Rather than follow the conventional wisdom and its timorous political advice — to end combat as quickly as possible — Trump is taking another big risk (with potentially a big reward) by maintaining and building up a heavy U.S. naval presence, clearing mines and opening the way without Iran’s permission. If this works, Trump will have reduced Iran to a single and sole trump card in the conflict — its nuclear material — without making any concessions. Iran is not taking this well.
This could also be a dilatory measure, as in Venezuela, where Trump’s attitude was relatively conciliatory as long as it took to get enough forces in place to effect regime change.
Big risk: Again, this is obviously a huge risk for Trump, because it threatens to be a disaster if a U.S. ship is sunk, more servicemembers die or oil tankers continue to be blown up by Iranian missiles, drones, or mines. Still, Iran’s capabilities to cause such trouble are limited and have already been severely curtailed. Apparently, Trump feels confident in the ability of U.S. planes, minesweepers, undersea drones and naval destroyers to manage the situation and reopen shipping lanes while holding off sporadic Iranian attacks on shipping.
He at least has one domestic industry cheering him on — the U.S. oil and gas industry is able to ramp up production and international sales around the world as long as the situation persists. U.S. energy independence-slash-dominance is a strategic trump card of its own, changing the situation significantly from what this conflict might have looked like if the U.S. had picked this fight just 15 to 20 years ago.
Meanwhile, despite the assumptions many have made, time is not on Iran’s side. China — now forced to purchase liquefied natural gas and oil from the U.S. in the absence of Persian Gulf oil shipments (something it had pointedly stopped doing in retaliation for Trump tariffs earlier) — is losing patience with Iran’s regime and its ill-considered attempt to use the strait as leverage. It has called on Iran to stop attacking its Gulf neighbors and reopen the strait. The Chinese, heavily dependent on imported oil from the Gulf and only capable of importing about 20 percent of its oil demand from Russia, were already suffering an economic implosion long before this conflict began. They may not have the luxury of taking further risks in favor of their Iranian allies.
Pope Leo: The media have been very eager to frame the first American papacy as a clash between President Trump and Pope Leo XIV. Trump now seems determined to help them by framing this narrative for them on a silver platter. His unprompted Truth Social attack on Pope Leo XIV, whose rationale and timing were a bit of a mystery over the weekend, cannot possibly be helpful to him politically, if only because the new pope is very popular among Catholic voters, whom Trump needs to win again in the 2026 midterms.
Governor 2026
California: Democrats were very fearful of a close jungle primary finish in which two Republicans — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) and political commentator Steve Hilton (R) — would advance to the general election, freezing Democrats out. Well, they found their solution to this problem.
Using a very cooperative news media as a tool to amplify their narrative, they found multiple female staffers to accuse Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) of many acts of sexual impropriety and even sexual assault. Swalwell, whom Democratic leaders such as Nancy Pelosi once vigorously defended in the face of other obviously improper conduct, at first dug in. But he finally ended his campaign over the weekend under pressure from Pelosi and other Democratic leaders. He was rapidly imploding anyway, thanks to the many allegations.
It is not at all a coincidence that Swalwell’s behavior — apparently an open secret on Capitol Hill and in California among Democrats and journalists for years — have emerged only now, at the most convenient moment possible for the state’s Democratic Party. Nor is there any curiosity as to why Swalwell will almost certainly not be resigning from Congress.
This is the sort of scandal that has helped destroy public trust in the news media.
With California’s media continuing its grave failure to impose accountability on Democrats in power, the state’s hapless Republican Party seems as unlikely as ever to stage its recovery in a midterm year that seems destined to favor Democrats.
Swalwell’s implosion was precisely what his party needed — to consolidate support behind one of its frontrunners, probably either former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) or longtime billionaire environmentalist donor and SuperPAC campaigner Tom Steyer (D).
Senate 2026
Maine: Yet another poll shows controversial oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) trouncing Gov. Janet Mills (D) in the Democratic primary — in this case, 61 percent to 28 percent. If mainstream and establishment Democrats have any cards up their sleeve to arrest enthusiasm for the outspoken Platner, they’re going to have to move quickly — the primary is June 9, and Mills’ favorability numbers have fallen to minus-16 points. Democratic men are especially excited about Platner, with 71 percent in support.
Although Graham leads Platner for now, Sen. Susan Collins’s (R) campaigners are counting on the opposition research book on him being good enough to change that through a sustained election campaign.
Platner was last seen blaming the U.S. military and its culture for the Nazi tattoo he got and recently had covered up.
