The Briefing, Vol. VIV, Issue 12
March 23, 2026
This week:
- Trump still looking to wrap up in Iran
- Cameron loses altitude in Kentucky Senate primary
- Math still not adding up for Cornyn
Outlook
The air war in Iran, launched at the end of February by President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is at this point starting to bite U.S. consumers with high gas prices. Although this is definitely a first-world problem, the Trump administration seems quite sensitive to the idea of four dollar gas (it’s actually closer to $6 in California, but that’s a local problem). Trump has responded to this with a number of measures — most notably by suspending the protectionist Jones Act so that non-U.S. ships can carry oil and gas directly between U.S. ports. This is yet another policy step conservatives have long desired, but they never expected that the tariff-loving Trump would be the president who took it. The Trump presidency keeps proving to be full of surprises.
Although Iran has been essentially defeated militarily, it still retains the advantage we have consistently pointed out: The rules of the game are stacked heavily against anything like a clear U.S. victory, and that poses a political threat to Trump and his party in a midterm election year where the environment is already tough.
Iran does not have to shoot down a single U.S. aircraft or retain any of its military capabilities after the conflict ends in order to plausibly claim victory in this fight. Its regime only has to survive, even if it does so as a husk of its former self. It can continue applying pressure as long as it can create any amount of extra risk in the Strait of Hormuz and strike its neighbors’ civilian infrastructure.
If this conflict has been reassuring in any way, it is because the U.S. military has vindicated its existence. It is not a comically bad, overrated force like Russia’s has proven to be in its stymied Ukraine invasion. It is an unparalleled fighting force capable of joint operations like no other. Its only peer world power, China, has to be very concerned about how effective U.S. forces are, and about how poorly its own weapons and defense systems have fared in recent conflicts in the hands of Iranian and Venezuelan operators.
That said, the Chinese regime doesn’t have to worry about elections. Trump does, and every day the Iran conflict continues, he risks a second half of his second term in which Democrats have the power to investigate and impeach him ad nauseam.
Along those lines, there is also no end in sight to the Homeland Security funding standoff. Democrats refuse to fund the agency unless they can get under the hood and dictate how the multi-year immigration enforcement funding, already approved as part of last year’s reconciliation package, is used. This means potentially longer lines at airports, since TSA falls under this category. So does the Coast Guard and FEMA, so there could be political consequences in the event of a natural disaster. Trump’s announcement that he will simply staff airports with ICE agents suggests he is willing to ride out the controversy.
Governor 2026
Iowa: Former six-term Gov. Terry Branstad (R) has endorsed northwestern Iowa Rep. Randy Feenstra (R) in the crowded primary to succeed Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) in a race that will test Republicans’ newfound dominance of the Hawkeye State. There is no polling at all in this race, but Feenstra represents the state’s district with the heaviest concentration of Republicans and conservatives.
Senate 2026
Illinois: The polls were not trustworthy. In a state where organization has historically beaten slick media campaigns, Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton (D) won the U.S. Senate primary despite trailing in every poll and being outspent.
Kentucky: Yet another poll, released last week, suggests that the May 19 Senate primary in the Bluegrass State is one the hottest tickets on the Republican side this year. Former Attorney General Daniel Cameron (D) has been losing altitude for months now and leads by just two points over Lexington-area U.S. Rep. Andy Barr (R), 31 to 29 percent. Cameron, the losing candidate for governor in 2023 who has been described as a protege of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R), has been badly outraised and outspent in this race.
Barr has been attacked by the conservative Club for Growth, and the Senate Conservatives Fund and Elon Musk are backing the candidate in a distant third place with 13 percent of the vote, businessman Nate Morris (R), who was also endorsed by Charlie Kirk before the latter’s assassination.
Nebraska: Democrats, who fully and transparently intend to be represented on the ballot by non-Democrat Dan Osborn, are playing ballot games and finding out. William Forbes, a conservative pastor, is now in a position to win the party’s Senate primary and appear onthe ballot after his rival, Osborn supporter Cindy Burbank (D), was thrown off the ballot. The reason? She is a “not-in-good-faith” candidate who really intends to throw her support behind Osborn instead of serving in the office she was running for. How did the secretary of state determine this? Because, on her campaign, website she wrote that she intends to support Osborn in the race to give him a “fair shot” against the Republican incumbent, Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), a former governor and multi-millionaire part-owner of the Chicago Cubs.
Burbank lost an initial state court ruling and is appealing to the state Supreme Court. The primary is May 12.
Texas: Although he finished first in his primary earlier this month, the math still looks terrible for Sen. John Cornyn (R) reaching 50 percent in his May 26 runoff election against Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). Without an endorsement from President Trump, Cornyn is almost certainly cooked; with an endorsement, he might lose anyway, according to a new poll released last week.
Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico (D) barely leads both Republicans in a new poll released by his own campaign. Two notes about that, however. First, polls generally underestimate Republicans in Texas. Second, no one has yet laid a glove on Talarico, whose record is likely to be very fun for opposition researchers, once the general election campaign begins. He has advocated, for example, offering abortions at all federal buildings and at national parks.
A video was also recently unearthed of a COVID-masked Talarico promoting veganism in 2022 as necessary to save the planet from global warming. Talarico’s campaign responded to this latter revelation by releasing a photo of the candidate sloppily consuming a comically gigantic barbecued rib with all the exaggerated zeal of Michael Jackson publicly making out with Lisa Marie Presley in 1994.
