The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 7
Feb. 16, 2026
Happy Presidents’ Day.
This week:
- California will likely have voter ID on the ballot
- Wesley Hunt gets doxxed in contentious Texas Senate race
- Virginians will vote on extreme gerrymander before a court decides
Outlook
DHS funding fight: Technically, the federal government is in a partial shutdown this week. It isn’t something most people will notice, though. Unlike the six-week shutdown late last year, this time most agencies are funded. Congressional Republicans were wise to get their act together and limit the damage by returning to passing regular order appropriations bills for the other agencies and groups of agencies.
The exception is the Department of Homeland Security, which is mostly funded through a multi-year appropriation under last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Democrats are loath to fund it because their base will perceive this as a betrayal. But ICE and the Border Patrol are fully funded. It is the TSA and FEMA (for example) that are not. Democrats are blocking not only a full year funding bill but also a temporary stopgap measure.
Although some of the Democrats’ demands to fund the department will probably be adopted (body cameras for ICE and Border Patrol officers, for example), the demand for judicial warrants to arrest illegal immigrants is definitely a non-starter for the administration. Under federal law, two types of administrative warrants (issued either by immigration officers or by executive branch immigration judges) suffice for those already ordered removed or suspected of being present in the U.S. illegally. Another issue is officers wearing masks — many do so because of threats from the cartels.
What does this all mean? It means Democrats will find themselves in a position not unlike the one Republicans took in late 2013, when they held all the wrong hostages in order to stop Obamacare from going into effect after it had already passed and been funded. But don’t forget — although that didn’t seem to work out well for Republicans at the time, it didn’t stop them from winning a blowout victory and a large Senate majority in the 2014 midterms.
Governor 2026
Arizona: The more moderate Karrin Taylor Robson (R) looked like she had it made when she received President Trump’s endorsement this time around. Instead, she just dropped out of the race for governor last week.
Robson, who lost the 2022 primary to Kari Lake, was blindsided when Trump offered a second endorsement, this time to her leading rival, conservative Rep. Andy Biggs (R), who also won the backing of Turning Point USA — a major force in the late Charlie Kirk’s adopted home state.
The only recent poll of the race showed Biggs at 50 percent and trouncing Robson. Robson’s exit from the race suggests that things have not improved.
The two remaining contenders to take on Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) are Biggs and Rep. Dave Schweikert (R).
California: With the U.S. Senate considering the SAVE Act and even the potential for a lengthy talking filibuster to guarantee voter ID in all elections, it seems relevant that state Rep. Carl DeMaio (R) and his organization appear to have the signatures they need to put voter ID on the state’s ballot this fall. Not only might it pass (voter ID is a very popular issue nationwide) but it might actually give Republican voters a reason to show up — something they have not had in many recent California elections — with beneficial consequences down-ballot.
This is no small matter in a field where Rep. Eric Swalwell (D), a lightning rod for controversy, is the leading Democratic candidate in recent polls.
Senate 2026
Iowa: Veteran Nathan Sage (D) has dropped out of the race to succeed Sen. Joni Ernst (R), leaving state Sen. Zach Wahls (D) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D) in the Democratic primary. U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) is the leading Republican and the frontrunner in the general election. She has an impressive $5.1 million cash on hand, putting her far ahead of both Democrats.
New Mexico: No Republicans will appear on the ballot for the primary or general elections for Senate this year after four candidates failed to meet signature-gathering requirements. That gives Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D) about as close to a free pass to re-election as an incumbent can get.
Texas: Sen. John Cornyn’s (R) campaign released some opposition research on Friday night — a timeline suggesting that Rep. Wesley Hunt (R) had lied about his reason for not being registered to vote when he cast a provisional ballot in 2016. The short version is that Hunt supposedly misrepresented when he had been discharged from the military in order to be allowed to cast a ballot.
But this oppo drop may hurt Cornyn more than Hunt just because of how badly it went off. The documents initially released on social media didn’t redact Hunt’s Social Security number and home address.
Setting that aside, Cornyn’s sharp negative turn against Hunt (who until recently was the distant third-place candidate in most polls) reflects the reality that the incumbent is slipping in the final weeks of next month’s upcoming three-way primary. That Cornyn’s path to the runoff is narrowing is only part of his problem — much more importantly, his path to the required 50 percent in a May runoff appears non-existent.
Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) is the most likely beneficiary of these attacks on Hunt, but he could well be the loser if he ends up in a runoff with the congressman. Primary elections are much more fluid and less predictable than general elections, and Hunt will likely find it easier than Paxton to win over Cornyn supporters.
Republicans’ anxiety over this race will probably subside somewhat if Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D) wins her primary. Election day is right around the corner on March 3.
House 2026
Utah: Utah Republicans have reportedly collected 200,000 signatures to put repeal of the state’s redistricting commission (established narrowly by Proposition Four in 2018) on the ballot. They are currently challenging a state court ruling that effectively carved out a Democratic congressional seat in Salt Lake.
Virginia: Meanwhile, the vote on Virginia’s extreme 10-1 gerrymander has been set for April 21, with early voting starting March 6.
Whether the attempted remap by Democrats is permissible is still subject to a court challenge due to Democrats’ allegedly cutting corners on the process. But the state Supreme Court decided to let the referendum go forward while the case is being heard. The justices wll have put themselves in a very awkward position if they are forced to rule against the will of the voters after the fact on procedural grounds.
Although the question hasn’t been put cleanly in a poll, the referendum appears more likely to pass than not.
