The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 29
July 21, 2025
This week:
- The Epstein scandal cuts into Trump’s greatest strength
- Maximum transparency is the best answer
- A Minnesota Democrat’s burglary conviction endangers state Senate majority
Outlook
Epstein fallout: If there is one main reason President Trump decisively defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris in last year’s presidential election, it is Trump’s sincerity.
To be sure, Trump is prone to spreading ridiculous and bombastic falsehoods — that is not the issue. Trump’s sincerity consists in the fact that he always says what he is thinking, whether it is true or false.
This made him a big hit in 2024 with podcasters and their listeners. They were getting something real when they conversed with him, even for hours on end. And this fueled his unconventional, even “subversive” campaign strategy of circumventing the legacy media to reach younger and male voters.
Harris, in sharp contrast, was a deeply insincere figure. She was prepared to say anything and to abandon any past position she had taken, if that’s what it took to win. The hype surrounding her was also fittingly artificial. Harris merely survived interviews by clinging to her talking points as if they were a life preserver, famously devolving into word salads whenever she was taken out of her comfort zone.
So, having established Trump’s strongpoint, it follows that the most harmful attack on Trump would be a plausible assertion that he is being insincere — that he has been faking belief in something for his own personal benefit. And in the Epstein matter, this is precisely how Trump is now being attacked.
He talked up the Epstein matter as a Democratic and liberal media cover-up. Now that his own administration has been caught out releasing less than the complete record — a “phase one” release of binders where there was apparently going to be no “phase two” — he evinces uncharacteristic annoyance that people are still talking about it and even calls it a “hoax.”
This is why the whole thing is so harmful to Trump’s brand. Not that he ever has to face re-election, but people could potentially remember him for this, even though he is accomplishing massive feats that conservatives have sought for decades. In just six months, he has made most of his tax cuts permanent, kept nearly ever campaign promise he made, defunded PBS and NPR, effectively dismantled USAID and the Department of Education, deported thousands of criminal aliens, sealed the border, saved women’s sports from male interlopers, and caused multiple child gender medicine clinics to shut down, even in Blue states — to name just a few things.
And yet, because this Epstein issue bears so heavily on Trump’s sincerity, it is living in the heads of his supporters. None of that can outweigh it.
Hope for Democrats: Liberals and Democrats — down and out, desperate, and facing persistently dire public polling for a party in opposition — are already hoping they can make some hay out of this. Some are even proposing votes on releasing certain materials. Republicans, for their part, seem to be heading this off at least by moving to have grand jury materials released and by preparing a vote of their own that doesn’t encumber other important legislation.
The truth of the matter is that, however toxic and harmful the internal fighting proves to be for Republicans, Democrats have very little chance of improving their own situation through it. They had ample opportunity to do something about this when they were in power and chose instead to ignore and downplay the entire story. Just as Trump over-sold the conspiracy theory only to get upset that people believed him, they undersold it and are now opportunistically attempting to turn it into something they were never willing to admit it was before.
A solution? What can Trump do about this now? Although there is no sufficient answer, the best answer available is maximum transparency. Unfortunately, that will not be good enough for many people, but it’s all Trump can do.
It begins with Attorney General Pam Bondi’s move to unseal grand jury materials. Then, for once, the government should promptly release a minimally redacted record of the evidence that was presented to the grand jury, with each redaction explained clearly (e.g., “This is the name of a victim” or “This is an image of a child,” et cetera).
Short of a serious salvage operation on this matter, this will keep cutting down his image with his supporters as a straight-shooter, with potentially very damaging consequences to his presidency.
The last thing Republicans can afford to do is bury their heads in the sand and treat the Epstein controversy like it’s a waste of time.
Governor 2025
New Jersey: This is a winnable race for Republicans. Specifically, a poll from former Trump campaign manager and pollster Kellyanne Conway has Democratic nominee Mikie Sherill (D) leading former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) by just five points, 47 to 42 percent. An important data point: 57 percent said they would not vote for incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy if he were running for another term.
Governor 2026
Minnesota: Former state Sen. and unsuccessful 2022 nominee Scott Jensen (R) will be running again for governor. There are already four other Republicans in the primary. Gov. Tim Walz (D) is supposed to announce this summer whether he will run again.
Republicans have gotten very little done in Minnesota in the two decades since Gov. Tim Pawlenty left office. However, the possible election of a socialist Minneapolis mayor could help increase the backlash against years of Democratic control, and in particular against Walz. It also helps that a Democratic legislator was recently convicted of felony burglary, which will at least temporarily deprive the party of its state Senate majority.
Senate 2026
Georgia: Previously, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) bowed out of the race against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) but promised to work with Trump’s political team to find a suitable candidate, expressing some dissatisfaction with those already running. Suddenly, former Tennessee and Louisiana Tech football coach Derek Dooley (R), a native of Athens, has reportedly hired two consultants who are close to Kemp and is reportedly moving toward announcing his candidacy.
The field is quite crowded, with Rep. Buddy Carter (R) and Georgia Insurance Commissioner John King (R) already declared and Rep. Mike Collins (R) considering a bid.
This will be a very important race for Republicans to put on the table next year, because some other races (especially Texas and Ohio) might not be as easy to win as previously thought.
