The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 30
July 28, 2025
This week:
- Democrats hit their lowest point since at least 1990
- Row over redistricting: Democrats don’t have much to retaliate with
- Roy Cooper is running
Outlook
State of the parties: The Trump administration is suffering very real problems with its base right now, given its sluggish and perhaps disingenuous treatment of the Epstein affair.
That said, let’s put this into context: Polls do not suggest that Trump is generally losing support among his base, even if they are upset. What’s more, Democrats are not really in a position to take advantage of his current problems.
In fact, new polling suggests that Democrats might have even bigger problems with the voters right now.
A new survey from the Wall Street Journal — and it’s not really an outlier — compared to other polls going back to March — shows Democrats with a net favorability of minus-30 points — at 63 percent disapproval, their worst showing in the 35 years since the Journal started putting this question to U.S. households in 1990. In fact, Republicans have only ever had a better rating during three brief periods since then: 1994, 2001 to 2003 (probably explained by 9/11), and now.
Another discomfiting result for Democrats: Although the Journal survey has Trump in marginally negative favorability territory — where he has been for most of his career — the overall data indicate that Trump is still doing better today than he was in July 2017, at this point of his first presidency.
And this time, he doesn’t need to worry about re-election. Nor does he have the entire federal intelligence apparatus working to defame him in the media and hinder the operation of his presidency.
There is also the question of national voter affiliations with the two main parties. According to Pew Research, the 2018 party affiliation breakdown was 50 percent Democrat to 42 percent Republican. This year, however, Republicans lead, 46 percent to 45 percent, and they very rarely lead in partisan affiliation. For example, the Gallup data set, which has not been updated for 2025, had Republicans leading in party affiliation last year for the first time since 1991.
Finally, the same Wall Street Journal survey referenced above showed Democrats with a mere three-point lead on the generic ballot, 46 to 43 percent. Considering Trump’s mass policy attack and the natural historical advantages of the opposition party in midterms, this has to be a very concerning and disappointing finding for Democrats, who tend to lose seats in elections where they have less than a five-point lead on the generic ballot.
Despite expressing some misgivings — 51 percent think Trump has gone “too far” with his mass deportations, compared to 47 percent who approve or want him to do more — voters are unbothered enough to trust congressional Republicans on the issue over congressional Democrats by a striking 17-point margin.
Trump’s Tariffs, on the other hand, are generally unpopular all around. On that issue, he gets a 57 to 40 percent disapproval.
Redistricting: The move to redraw congressional districts in Texas, and talk of doing so in Florida as well, is causing some Democratic governors to threaten retaliation. In truth, there’s just not that much they can do, because they gerrymandered the heck out of their own best states after the 2020 Census reapportionment.
Illinois, for example, already has arguably the most geometrically offensive congressional map in America. It was drawn this way in order to create 14 uncompetitive and impenetrably Democratic seats, leaving just three Republican seats, in an electorate where 43 percent voted for Trump.
Maryland, the second-most geometrically offensive map in America, was drawn to give Democrats a 7-1 majority in the state’s congressional delegation. Given the geography, it would take some serious contortions to make competitive the sole Republican seat on the Eastern Shore.
Democrats are also probably maxed out on their map in California, having already won most of the handful of competitive seats drawn by the ostensibly (but not really) non-partisan redistricting commission, in addition to winning all of the safe Democratic seats it drew. They currently hold 43 out of the state’s 52 congressional seats. Even if Democrats thought they could gain a few seats more, the officially non-partisan nature of the process may legally prevent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) from carrying out his threats without first running a ballot referendum campaign.
Similarly, Democrats have already won most of the marginal seats in New Jersey, where they would face legal problems redistricting anyway because the process there is also done by a commission.
New York is another story. Here, Democrats could make serious gains. Democrats in fact tried to do just that by redrawing the map last cycle and tearing up the non-partisan commission they themselves had created. But state courts intervened to prevent this from happening.
On the Republican side of the ledger, the reasoning behind a Texas redistricting is that Texas’s legislature had to leave a lot on the table for Democrats in 2020 because of at least one now-overturned Supreme Court precedent related to so-called racial “coalition districts.” In addition, thanks to the sudden reddening of heavily Hispanic South Texas, not much contortion will be required to flip two historically Democratic seats there during the next cycle. Republicans are talking about gaining five seats in Texas alone.
Ohio, meanwhile, is actually required to redraw its districts this year due to an ongoing court case that fixed last year’s boundaries only temporarily. Thanks to a resounding Republican victory in last year’s supreme court elections, the Republican legislature will have a more sympathetic court to review the new map — again, an opportunity to add on two and perhaps three (although that’s really a stretch) seats.
As for Florida, the map there was drawn very cleverly and is already extremely favorable to Republicans. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has floated the idea of a mid-decade remap, but it’s hard to imagine Republicans gaining much ground there.
Trade deals: As August approaches and Trump’s 90-day tariff pause is about the to end, the one thing Republicans really want to avoid is another market meltdown due to uncertainty over tariffs. Trump’s agreement to notional trade deals with both Japan and the European Union helps in a big way here.The early-April panic threatened to sink Trump’s administration early on.
Governor 2026
Nevada: Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) has jumped into the race to topple Gov. Joe Lombardo (R). Lombardo has a strong approval rating at 51 to 38 percent in a recent Democratic poll. Democrats are hoping to take advantage of the midterm year, Trump’s negative approval ratings, and perhaps an eventual resurrection of the Democratic brand.
South Carolina: Rep. Ralph Norman (R) jumped into the race for governor last week and already has the backing of former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) and former conservative firebrand Sen. Jim DeMint (R).
Norman gets in alongside Attorney General Alan Wilson (R) and Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (R). Rep. Nancy Mace (R) keeps making noises about getting in herself.
South Carolina Democrats, having fallen far and fast in the last quarter century (Republicans seized the state legislature in 2002 for the first time since Reconstruction) don’t have much going for them in this race.
Senate 2026
Michigan: President Trump helped clear the field in this open-seat race by endorsing 2024 nominee and former House Intelligence Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), who came within less than half a percentage point of winning the other Senate seat last fall. Trump played a role in discouraging Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) from running, giving him a positive shout-out after he announced he would not be running for Senate.
North Carolina: The uncertainty created by Sen. Thom Tillis’s (R) retirement is nearly over, giving way to what is sure to become one of the most contested and important Senate races of the coming cycle.
Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) officially announced his entry into this race this morning. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, RNC Chairman Michael Whatley has all but officially jumped in and received President Trump’s endorsement, now that first-daughter-in-law Lara Trump (R) has decided not to run. She has also endorsed Whatley, as has Sen. NRSC Chairman Tim Scott (R-S.C.).
Cooper is by far the strongest candidate Democrats could run for this seat. Even so, there are three reasons to like Republicans to hold on even against him.
First, as popular as Cooper was as governor, he won by less than half a percentage point in 2018 and by just 4.5 points in 2020, even against a relatively weak opponent. So he is not some kind of landslide winner. However, this comes with the caveat that he won at the state level both times with Trump winning his state up-ballot, so his name does have a better reputation than the Democratic brand..
Second, Whatley, as a former national party chairman and the direct endorsee of President Trump, is likely to have far more resources at his disposal.
Third, North Carolina is a state trending away from Democrats in terms of its electorate. Among overall registered voters, Republicans are on the verge of surpassing Democrats for the first time in state history. And among active voters, they already surpass Democrats by about 90,000 registered voters. Like Florida and some other states where northern retirees are seeking warmer winter climes, the Tar Heel State appears to have a constant influx of Republican migrants turning it redder.
