The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 42
Oct. 26, 2025
This week:
- Four reasons Republicans should expect to lose
- Where they might win anyway
- El-Sayed’s call to “purge” media in Egypt puts him on the back foot
Outlook
Election Day is next Tuesday. In the last two weeks, it appears that a huge wave of spending by Republicans has stabilized and even improved their very bad situation.
Yes, they are still losing — the generic ballot polling average (a measure Republicans usually outperform by about four points) currently favors Democrats by eight points. But it was worse at the beginning of October, with several polls pointing to a gap in Democrats’ favor of more than 10 points..
The good news for Republicans: Only one (in North Carolina) of the seven vulnerable seats they are defending seems genuinely hopeless. Democrats are failing to open up a large lead anywhere else. A second (Ohio) might slip away for other reasons related to the governor’s race, as noted below. But even that Senate race still remains a tossup and could be saved by the voters, given historic underperformance in polls of the Buckeye State by Republicans.
Everywhere else, the races are tied or well within the margin of error, with the trends seemingly moving in the right direction for Republican candidates. In short, in the very optimistic case, Republicans could lose as little ground in the Senate as one seat, with two or three being more likely — in any case, good enough to save their majority.
But here’s the problem: Just because six of seven defensive Senate races are all close enough for Republicans to remain competitive going into election day, that doesn’t mean they cannot barely lose all six.
Sure, it is better to be within striking distance than not to be. And the odds might be (or at least seem) against losing every single close race in the election equivalent of a bad poker beat. But elections have a way of magnifying public sentiment. It doesn’t always happen this way — 2022 is a good example of when it didn’t — but when elections have a national theme and the public is angry at a president, races often all break in the same direction.
For example, In 2014, the second Obama midterm, all the final results broke Republicans’ way in what seemed like an election that would just barely favor them. The RealClear average in the generic ballot as of election day (again, a metric Republicans tend to outperform) was Republicans plus-2.4. As a result, they gained nine Senate seats and the majority.
Not to say anything so dramatic will happpen in 2026 in Democrats’ favor, but there are multiple reasons it could. Here are four of them:
- The polling average on President Trump’s favorability is his worst since he first took office in 2017. His job approval, although slightly better than at the beginning of October, is almost as bad as it has been at any point since his second term began. It is also slightly worse than Joe Biden’s was at any point in his term — and recall that, several months before he was replaced on the ballot, we observed that Biden was cruising toward a loss to Trump in 2024.
- At about 31 points, the margin by which Americans say the country is headed in the “wrong direction” over the “right direction” is at its worst point since Trump assumed office again in January 2025 — although notably, it has not reached levels quite as high as during the late Biden administration.
- On the issue that has arguably angered voters most persistently over the last five years — rising prices or inflation — Trump’s numbers are even worse. This question is not asked as often, so the averages are less reliable, but the poll numbers appear to have improved recently, from below minus-50 to just minus-30-something.
- The average cost of a gallon of unleaded gas remains stuck above $4.25 per gallon — down about 20 cents from a month ago, but up by more than a full dollar from a year ago. In some critical states, like Alaska, it is closer to $5 per gallon. Even if Trump is right in claiming that the Iran War is worth fighting despite the high gas prices, a lot of consumers don’t want to hear that. High gas prices helped cost Joe Biden his House majority in 2022 — they are now squeezing Trump in similar fashion.
In short, any Republican who successfully powers through this environment and wins can claim a form of vindication that comes with being battle-tested in the worst kind of situation. Even if the shock of the 2016 election result still has you questioning the polls — and there’s every reason to be at least a little skeptical — all the other signs point toward a rough day for Republicans next Tuesday. We continue to believe they will lose House control and will be extraordinarily fortunate to squeak out all the races necessary to maintain their Senate majority.
Finall, the great white whale of politics is to get your lowest-propensity presidential-year voters to come out and vote in the midterms. Such a feat could profoundly shake the result, since polling would not account for it. But we call it the “white whale” for a reason. There is no indication that Republicans have found the magic formula this time, only a lingering question: Is there something truly different about Trump? Can he pull a rabbit out of his hat ala 2016 — a minor miracle that brings out two or three unexpected extra points of turnout? Or are things just as bleak as they look?
Senate 2026
Iowa: The trend looks good for U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), who finally seems to be opening up a small lead against state Rep. Josh Turek (D) in the open-seat race to replace Sen. Joni Ernst (R).
Current rating: Leaning Republican Retention.
Kansas: In the much more favorable year of 2014, Republicans salvaged what was left of Sen. Pat Roberts’s (R) career despite a late scare against independent Greg Orman, who led in four out of the five polls taken after mid-October. By driving base turnout in this heavily Republican-registered state and focusing on mostly Republican undecided voters, they pulled Roberts over the finish line by about 11 points.
Sen. Roger Marshall (R) needs a similar miracle against pastor Adam Hamilton (D). The political environment is a lot worse, but his situation is also not quite as dire as Roberts’s was.
Current rating: Leaning Republican Retention.
Maine: In 2020, Sen. Susan Collins (R) won by nearly nine points despite trailing in every single poll taken from February through October of that year. In the 2008 Obama wave year, she led U.S. Rep. Tom Allen in the polling average by about 15 points and won by 23.
This race is dead-even tied in the last two polls. But if there is anyone who outperforms the polling, it is Collins. We believe she will overcome her unimpressive opponent, former state Senate leader Troy Jackson (D).
Current rating: Leaning Republican Retention.
Michigan: Here is one of the rare races (along with longshot Minnesota) where Senate Republicans are on offense, trying to win the seat vacated by the retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D). The polling average is misleading, as the trend has heavily favored former House Intelligence Chairman Mike Rogers (R) this month. Recent questions have arisen about former Wayne County health official Abdul El-Sayed on the defensive over a letter he signed in 2012 urging Muslim Brotherhood leader and then-Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi to purge his country’s media and police of opposition figures. Morsi did indeed take steps in this direction before he was overthrown the following summer.
El-Sayed refuses to talk about this letter even, to distance himself, and he attacks journalists who bring it up. Rogers has been smart in how he discusses the issue, not making it a religion question. But it is worth noting how much Democrats have attacked Trump for making far less inflammatory statements or demands of the media in the U.S.
Rogers outperformed the polls and nearly squeaked out a victory against a stronger opponent in 2024, albeit in a much more favorable environment. Expect to see this one come within 10,000 or 20,000 votes.
Current rating: Tossup.
Ohio: It is not the fault of Sen. Jon Husted (R), but a miscue by gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) could prove costly to his chances all the same. Ramaswamy has embraced and doubled down on an ad by his campaign attacking his opponent Democrat Amy Acton (D), in which her own mother claims she is lying about her childhood. But Acton’s mother, with whom she and her brother have had no contact for years, is accused of staying with Acton’s alleged abuser, her stepfather, until he died. Whatever the facts of the story, it seems like a grave miscalculation to run the ad at all, and also that Ramaswamy wouldn’t just disown the advertisement when it first came out.
Husted already had his hands full with a challenge by former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), although the trends seemed to be moving his way as of a week ago. Instead, this just adds to all the headwinds. Republicans are praying that the polls here are overestimating Brown by a couple of points again — just as they overestimated him by about two points in 2024.
Current rating: Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Texas: Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) still narrowly trails in the RealClear polling average, but he looks better in the polls as of today than he has at any point in this race up to now — tied or leading in three of the last five. With the trend looking favorable, we believe that enough Republicans will hold their noses and back Paxton to prevent State Rep. James Talarico (D) from becoming the first Democratic senator elected from Texas since the late Lloyd Bentsen won his last re-election race in 1988. But it will be uncomfortably close.
Current rating: Leaning Republican Retention.
