The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 41
Oct. 19, 2026
This week:
- Not all the news is bad for Republicans
- Sen. Marshall tries something different: Positive ads
- Trump blames Texas GOP for Paxton’s underperforming race
Outlook
With just two weeks to go until election day, Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to take the U.S. House and slightly favored (by futures traders, anyway) to take over the U.S. Senate. We have repeatedly pointed out what a disaster it would be for Trump personally to lose the Senate, and he seems to understand, pouring vast resources into several races that still seem close enough as to remain winnable.
The other side of this coin, though, is that Republicans are cutting their losses where they see insurmountable odds. In the House, this involves several races they had hoped would be closer. And on the Senate side, this means resources will be diverted from races in North Carolina and Georgia into contests where they still have hope.
Not all the news is good for Democrats, though, as this is the moment when their cash deficit becomes a real problem. The DCCC, their House campaign arm, is especially concerned that lack of cash is about to leave a lot of opportunities on the table for the party in the form of close-finish failures to pick up seats.
Governor 2026
Georgia: Despite the lopsided Senate race, Republican Rick Jackson (R) continues to narrowly lead former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance-Bottoms (D) for governor, according to the latest InsiderAdvantage poll. This is not the only state where some serious ticket-splitting appears likely — New Hampshire, Maine, and Iowa could also deliver divided verdicts in the top two races on their respective ballots.
Current rating: Leaning Republican Retention.
Iowa: Businessman Zach Lahn (R) is trailing so badly against state Auditor Rob Sand (D) that it could affect the down-ticket Senate race between Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D). Lahn obviously faces obstacles because of the political environment under a Republican president and the unpopularity of retiring Gov. Kim Reynolds (R). But the fact that Hinson runs so far ahead of him in the polls — leading most of them, in fact — shows there is more to it than that.
For his part, Lahn complainsthat his commitment to MAHA-style stances have rendered him unable to win endorsements from groups that normally back Republicans, such as the Iowa Farm Bureau and the Iowa Association of Business and Industry. Democrats have also managed to turn his choice of running-mate into a liability.
Current rating: Likely Democratic Takeover.
Senate 2026
Kansas: How do you revive or rehabilitate an incumbent whose image has been dragged through the mud? It isn’t impossible, but it requires a bit of thinking that has become tellingly unconventional in election campaigns.
With this race about as close as it can be in polls, Sen. Roger Marshall (R) is trying something different: a positive ad featuring a constituent whom he helped by offering to pay for the operation that saved her baby. A similar positive-ad strategy helped Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) overcome a stiff challenge in 2016.
Come to think of it, the effect of such ads is probably magnified by the fact that all the other ads are so negative as a rule.
This is not to say Marshall isn’t also running negative ads against his opponent, Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) for allegedly “covering up” for a pedophile volunteer at his church’s camps.
The under-the-radar reason this race is so uncomfortably close for Marshall and Republicans is that Marshall is a target of much of the banking industry. His stance on a bill related to credit card swipe fees has long been the target of a well-funded corporate PR campaign. Unable to do anything about the bill’s chief Democratic sponsor, the retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the industry has chosen this year to make an example of Marshall and turn that conflict into an open electoral battle in Kansas.
Current rating: Leaning Republican Retention.
Nebraska: Crypto bros are among those coming in late with campaign money to bolster Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), who faces a tough challenge from faux independent and 2024 also-ran Dan Osborn. So is the Mitch McConnell-related Senate Leadership Fund, which has committed a total of $15 million to the race.
Punchbowl for some reason brings up again that Osborn’s campaign has been plagued with staff turnover and damaging audio leaks throughout the year.
Current rating: Leaning Republican Retention.
Ohio: Even if the latest Bowling Green State University poll is an outlier, Sen. Jon Husted (R) has led in just one of the last ten polls. Then again, it was the first he has led in since June. This suggests Husted’s work on the campaign trail and the millions of dollars being spent against former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) are finally having an effect. Republicans would like to hope this is coming just in the nick of time and not just too late.
Current rating: Tossup.
Texas: Yes, the establishment Republican Party in Texas has it in for Ken Paxton (R), it is true. They impeached him and tried to remove him from office, and they haven’t been much help in the current Senate campaign.
But Paxton gives them a lot of material. The Wall Street Journal provides the most recent episode of this, complete with video of him celebrating New Year’s in Dubai with a fugitive from U.S. justice.
Paxton’s polling against state Rep. James Talarico (D) puts him ahead in only one of the last ten polls, tied in another. The only bright side for Republicans is that the more recent ones are the ones that look better for him. This is a one- or two-point race, as close now as it ever has been, and Paxton was trailing worse over the summer — could he finally be peaking at the right moment?.
On the other hand, Paxton’s negative news stories and underperformance in the polls have Republicans fighting already in public, with President Trump lashing out and even speaking as if he expects a possible loss. That is not usually a sign that you’re winning, but it also doesn’t prove it’s the end for Paxton. In fact, some Republicans believe the late flood of Trump-adjacent money into the race is having its intended effect and will get Paxton over the finish line. If so, Republican chances of keeping the Senate will be that much better.
Current rating: Tossup.
