The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 31
August 4, 2025
This week:
- Jobs report shows Trump’s vulnerability
- Why Harris won’t run for governor
- Texas redistricting battle instantly reaches DEFCON 1
Outlook
Trump’s weakness: “Despite elevated levels of disapproval toward Trump, Democrats remain unable to provide a viable alternative.”
This quotation, from a column this morning by Democratic pollster Doug Schoen, pretty much sums up the state of the parties during the second Trump administration until now. One of the most important observations is that Trump’s approval, as aggregated by RealClearPolitics, has remained surprisingly stable with a maximum spread of about 7 points — much more so than during his first administration.
But then, what can finally stop President Trump? Democrats, depressed at their party’s ineffectiveness and finding themselves at an all-time low for popularity, have tried to fit multiple square pegs into this round hole, and so far they have had little to no success.
They tried the deportation sob stories. Yet as the administration continues to deport record numbers of convicts, accused criminals with pending charges, people with final orders of removal and people wanted for crimes in their home countries (most deportees fall into one of these three categories), mass deportation arguably remains Trump’s best political card.
Democrats also tried to make something of the cuts to USAID, the Education Department and other government agencies experiencing cuts. No one cared enough to do anything significant, and it is likely that no one will remember these agencies in six months.
They tried to make it about a Medicaid cutoff for able-bodied, childless adults. This probably won’t work, either.
But don’t count the Democrats out. There is really something that can serve as the undoing of Trump’s presidency, and it is the exact same thing that has undone Republicans before him — a slow economy. Just ask President George H.W. Bush. Or consider George W. Bush and how history views him now after he exited amid the financial crisis.
In his first term, Trump had a very strong economy before the craziness of the COVID-19 pandemic. If the economy goes sour under Trump, then he will become less effective and perhaps ultimately fail.
July Jobs: This is why Friday’s employment report has produced the best news yet for Democrats in the Trump era. Although it does not quite signify a failing economy yet, this is the first standard sign of political trouble on Trump’s horizon — not counting the unique Jeffrey Epstein matter.
To be sure, the report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is not a complete disaster. There were jobs created — only a disappointingly small number of them at 73,000.
More alarming was the downward revision of the last two months’ job creation by a combined 258,000.
There are silver linings that we will discuss in a moment. But this is the first objective measurement that Democrats can actually point to and take advantage of politically. And they also seem to sense that the upcoming tariff deadline might further help them — which it might.
Silver linings for Trump? First, the nation is still at what most economists consider full employment — the reported unemployment rate, essentially unchanged at 4.2 percent, did not reflect any sort of labor market crunch. There were still roughly 7.2 million unemployed people in the U.S., just like in June. Still, that fact was no consolation to Joe Biden when he was president. Inflation ravaged his approval ratings, even though the unemployment rate never became a problem during his term, remaining at or near 4 percent from November 2021 through today.
Others have theorized ways in which the data may just reflect success in achieving Trump’s priorities. For example, the creation of more than 2 million jobs for native-born workers since taking office, alongside the loss of more than a million for foreign-born workers, could be a simple reflection of immigration enforcement and hundreds of thousands of undocumented workers self-deporting.
Along those lines, former CBO director Douglas Holtz-Eakin, even as he criticized Trump for firing the Bureau of Labor Statistics head in the wake of the bad report, credited immigration enforcement for causing a huge drop in the “break-even” point of how much job creation is necessary to maintain a steady number of unemployed. The data show that that number is in fact now negative.
Or perhaps one could argue that Trump is actually succeeding because he is increasing private sector employment and cutting government jobs. And he is, but it’s not much of an explanation because only 23,000 government jobs have been counted as lost on net since he took office. (Note, however, that many more federal government job losses will be counted this fall when the federal workers who took DOGE buy-outs officially end their employment.)
What might be more worrisome, as Holtz-Eakin points out, is that all private-sector net job creation in July was in the sectors of health care and education.
IVF: Many conservatives and libertarians will probably breathe easier at the news that Trump does not intend to keep his off-the-cuff campaign promise to pay for everyone’s in-vitro fertilization. It was characteristic of Trump to float such ideas out of left field. But IVF is a highly expensive procedure, not medically necessary to treat illness, and many people in his base have ethical reservations about it. It seemed like an odd thing to latch onto — much like no-taxes-on-tips — but it might be the only promise Trump has clearly backed away from since taking office.
President 2028
Polling: A national poll from Emerson College taken last month shows Vice President JD Vance (R) leading former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (D), 44 to 43 percent, leading Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), 44 to 41 percent, and leading California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), 45 to 42.
Emerson also released a 2028 primary poll for North Carolina, of all places, probably just because they were in the field for the contested Senate race. Vance dominates the Republican field with 53 percent — everyone else is an afterthough in single-digits. The Democratic field is, of course, wide open, with 17 percent backing Buttigieg, 12 percent for former Vice President Kamala Harris (D), and 10 percent for Newsom.
Governor 2026
California: Speaking of Harris, she will not be running for governor, much to the relief of every Democrat in the state. This is moderately bad news for Newsom, who might have to face her in a 2028 primary that might split the vote in delegate-rich California.
Her stated reason for not running — that the political system is too broken — is admittedly weird, given that she has part of the system of government at some level for her entire career. But since the system’s brokenness is more often treated by candidates as a reason to run for office, it might signify that she harbors some kind of 2028 ambition. So Democrats at the national level have that to look forward to.
South Carolina: Rep. Nancy Mace (R) officially announced her campaign for governor this morning, which puts her in a very crowded field. It remains to be seen whether Trump will weigh in, and if he does, it probably will not be for Mace. She has been courting the conservative base by taking a strong stance against men in women’s sports and private spaces, perhaps in part to cover her right flank after her sharp attack on Trump during the second impeachment battle (she voted “no”).
Senate 2026
North Carolina: That Emerson poll mentioned above has former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leading former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley (R) convincingly for Senate, 47 to 41. Another poll, from Victory Insights, has the two tied at 44.
Given Cooper’s universal name ID and Whatley’s unknown status in the state — he has never held elected office — one would expect Cooper to start off with an advantage. In short, by the time both have had a chance to run a campaign, this race is going to be a lot closer than that first poll would suggest.
House 2026
Texas-redistricting: Well, that escalated quickly!
Last week, Texas Republicans unveiled the new congressional map they intend to pass, which will give them an additional five House seats. Democrats in the state legislature pledged to flee the state (for some reason to Illinois) in order to deprive the legislature of a quorum. This would put them at some political risk because it threatens funding for flood relief in the Hill Country.
Some Democratic donors offered to pick up the tab for the $500 per day fine that these legislative Democrats will incur for fleeing.
Gov. Greg Abbott (R), however, delivered a nuclear response. Anyone making such an offer to pay the Democrats’ fines, he said, is committing bribery and could face prosecution. Moreover, he threatened to declare any legislators failing to show up for the special session to have forfeited their office. It isn’t exactly clear whether he can do this under Texas’s constitution, but a non-binding legal opinion from the attorney general said it would be a question for the state Supreme Court.
These five seats could be pivotal for keeping the U.S. House Republican in 2025. Democrats have threatened retaliation, but there’s not much they can do, since they’ve maxed out most of their own gerrymanders.
Get out your popcorn — the special session starts in Austin this afternoon.
