The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 23
June 8, 2026
This week:
- Republicans struggle to avoid the typical midterm result
- Key to winning: Avoid a yes-no referendum on the president
- Will Democrats have to replace Platner on the ballot?
Outlook
A president’s party is simply expected to be unpopular and lose ground in any given midterm election year. It has happened this way in all but two midterm elections (1998 and 2002) since the Civil War.
Moreover, each of those two exceptions had a very unique set of circumstances. In 1998, Republicans largely became victims of their own success in 1994. They had little room for upside after seizing House control decisively in the Gingrich Revolution. In 2002, as the nation reeled from the 9/11 terrorist attacks that killed 3,000 Americans, President George W. Bush enjoyed a level of support unprecedented in modern times. Voters gave him a congressional majority and rewarded Republicans at every level, state and federal.
But those are the exceptions, and 2026 is not shaping up to be an exceptional year — at least not yet. At the moment, voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction at the highest rate since Trump began his second term. Trump’s net job approval, although it has stabilized somewhat, is still close to the worst levels of his second term.
More alarmingly, Democrats seem to be putting a lot of marginal states on the table when it comes to Senate races. It isn’t a foregone conclusion yet that Republicans will lose in Alaska, Texas, or Ohio (see below) but they now face very serious challenges in all of these states, in addition to the ones where they expected the most serious challenges — namely Maine and North Carolina.
Meanwhile, Democrats’ lead on the generic congressional ballot averages about six points. Historically, that is enough for significant gains, and it is probably enough for a House victory even with the gerrymandering firewall that Republicans think they have built for themselves.
Trump needs to turn this ship around. That doesn’t just mean ending the Iran War and tamping down inflation — although he really does need to accomplish both of those difficult tasks. Many of his allies have urged him to ease up on the tariff policies to that end.
In addition to policy success, Republicans also need to turn the election from a referendum on Trump — which is where things are currently headed — into a choice between Republicans with good ideas and flawed Democratic candidates such as Graham Platner in Maine (see below), James Talarico in Texas, and (if he wins the August primary) Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan.
Governor 2026
Maine: In two separate Democratic primaries in Maine, ranked-choice voting is about to do its worst: to take candidates with relatively little support and create the illusion of a majority behind them.
In the governor’s race, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree (D) is in third place at just 19 percent in the latest Bangor Daily News poll, trailing former state health official Nirav Shah (D) and Troy Jackson (D). But as the rounds of questioning go by, the confusing ranked-choice system produces an artificial 52 percent majority for Pingree after a very large number of respondents stopped ranking candidates and thus have their choice thrown out.
A similar effect occurs in the Second Congressional District, handing a decisive 56 percent majority to state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D) even though he is the preferred candidate of only 27 percent of Democratic voters. This second result is less egregious, since Baldacci is at least the most popular candidate in the first round, but it all illustrates how destructive and countermajoritarian the ranked-choice system really is.
Senate 2026
Alabama: For those confused by all of Alabama’s redistricting drama, it has upended House primaries in its May 19 primary. That means that it will hold its usual runoff election next Tuesday, Jun. 16, for statewide and other offices, but then it will hold an additional special primary election for the affected U.S. House seats on Aug. 11.
In next week’s runoff election, a new survey shows Barry Moore (R) with a narrow nine-point lead over Jared Hudson (R) for the Republican nomination. The winner will be a prohibitive favorite in November to replace Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), who is running for governor.
Maine: To all appearances, Maine Democrats are on the cusp of nominating one of the most damaged candidates in the history of U.S. Senate campaigns. But the issue here is that there is no guarantee that totenkopf-wearing aquaculture hobbyist Graham Platner (D) will actually appear on any ballot this fall.
Platner’s gross porta-potty behavior and out-of-control sexting of multiple women behind his wife’s back had already been reported. But with a first detailed allegation of domestic abuse now in the public domain, and rumors of much worse to come, Platner is already losing altitude in the polls. Truth is, he was already losing ground before the New York Times reported the allegation. This is likely to accelerate the next time a poll is taken.
Assuming Platner does in fact win the nomination tomorrow in the ranked-choice vote — no one else is even campaigning, so it seems likely in spite of everything — Democrats may try to find a way to replace him on the ballot before all is said and done. Mind you, this is already being actively discussed — the retiring Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) has ruled himself out, for example, as a potential Platner replacement. The thing is, it would be hard for any other Democrat just to jump into this race. Platner has now raised more than $16 million that cannot simply be transferred to a substitute candidate.
If this fiasco prevents Democrats from defeating Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) it will be a classic cautionary tale on the scale of Christine O’Donnell’s 2010 campaign in Delaware. Collins is not in great shape, given the anti-Trump national mood, but she is a proven survivor who cannot be counted out as long as she is facing someone so profoundly flawed as a candidate.
Ohio: A new Fox News poll is an outlier, but it snows former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leading appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) by eight points — and, perhaps more alarmingly, underperforming gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy (R), who trails in the same survey by just one point. Democrats may not have such a massive advantage as all that, but it is clear that getting Brown to run again was a masterstroke and has definitely made this race a competitive one, despite Ohio’s significant shift rightward over the last ten years.
