The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 24
June 15, 2026
This week:
- Will an Iran deal save Republicans? It’s complicated.
- The date to expect new oppo on Platner
- Southern states to settle primaries soon as Trump weighs in
Outlook
An apparent agreement to end the Iran War sent the price of oil plunging and stocks soaring at the opening bell this morning. Could this peace help Republicans, who find themselves in a tough midterm election year and facing considerable headwinds?
Assuming the agreement is real this time (there have been many false-starts), it is definitely in Trump’s interest to put the Iran “excursion” behind him. A fascinating and rapid military success that has clearly weakened a dangerous enemy, this conflict has nonetheless put an economic pinch on many Americans. It also seemed at times to be strategically adrift, devolving into a “forever-ceasefire” in which the Iranian side simply kept playing games and playing for time.
The good news for Trump: As we go to publication, oil prices have already fallen into the low $80 range, back to where they were about March 4. A massive downturn does not seem likely. The bad news: It is unclear just how soon consumers will start feeling savings at the pump, or even whether they will be well-disposed to vote for Trump’s party after the economic pinch they have already endured this year.
So the prospects are mixed.Think back to 2018, the last Democratic wave election. Republicans actually gained seats in the U.S. Senate. Part of the reason was the map, but another part was that the economy was doing quite well at that point, with no serious inflation and 3.8 percent unemployment. Today’s unemployment is a statistically similar 4.3 percent — higher than 2018, but well below what economists have traditionally considered full employment. If Trump can get inflation under control and the jobs market remains strong, he could at least avoid the worst possible outcomes for his party.
On the other hand, don’t forget what else happened in 2018. Democrats gained 41 seats and won a House majority, which they then used to impeach Trump twice. Democrats continue to hold a substantial lead on the congressional generic ballot (almost six points, according to the RealClear average) and a very large majority of voters believe the country is headed in the “wrong direction” — almost the largest number since Trump’s election.
Governor 2026
South Carolina: Here’s one more contest where the power of Trump in Republican primaries will soon be put to the test. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (R), the Trump-endorsed candidate, narrowly trails Attorney General Alan Wilson (R) in the runoff election for the nomination to succeed the term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R). Election Day is June 23.
Senate 2026
Alabama: Former Rep. Barry Moore (R) is in a very close runoff election tomorrow against former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson (R) for the nomination to replace Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), who is running for governor.
Alaska: Democrats hoping to knock off Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan (R) may have taken things a bit too far with the chicanery this time. A Democratic operative has helped a retired teacher, Daniel J. Sullivan, to file paperwork to run in the four-way primary, which seemed pretty clever.
But based on a preliminary ruling by the state Division of Elections, fake Dan Sullivan will be disqualified. One problem is that he filed as a Republican, when he is not in fact a registered voter in the party. Although that could potentially be remedied, the incorrect party identification also serves as evidence that Sullivan is running solely to confuse the voters. There may be a court challenge, but any indication that he is trying to impersonate the U.S. senator could make the disqualification stick.
Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D), the Democrats’ top-prize recruit to run for this seat, denies any involvement in the trickery. Unlike in most states with regular election rules, the use of a dummy candidate could be effective in Alaska because of its confusing four-winner all-party ranked-choice primary system. If he is allowed on the ballot, that scheme could help Daniel J. Sullivan reach the general election and genuinely confuse voters..
Georgia: Once again, President Trump has put a finger on the scale in a major Senate primary. He has endorsed Rep. Mike Collins (R) over former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley (R), who has the backing of Gov. Brian Kemp (R). The two advanced to tomorrow’s runoff election when neither received 50 percent in the May 19 primary.
The winner will take on Sen. Jon Ossoff (D).
Maine: We anticipated this, so keep an eye on it. The erratic and scandal-tattooed Graham Planter (D) is a big left-wing sensation, but he keeps losing altitude in the polls with each new revelation. The latest survey shows him leading Sen. Susan Collins (R), 46 to 45 percent, which is well inside the margin of error.
Believe it or not, this works in Collins’s favor. It guarantees that Platner cannot be dislodged from the race without creating a massive Democratic voter rebellion. The deadline to withdraw and have his name removed from the ballot will be 70 days before the election. After that, he cannot be removed unless he dies or contracts “a catastrophic illness, condition or injury that has permanently and continuously incapacitated the candidate and would prevent performance of the duties of the office sought.”
So mark your calendar for Aug. 26 — that’s when the other shoes in the opposition research book will likely start dropping.
Texas: The polls in this race — a must-win for Republicans — show a very close contest, but one that a decent Republican campaign should be able to win in Texas. The two latest surveys show a tie between Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and state Rep. James Talarico (D), and a slight lead for Paxton.
In fact, aside from one outlier poll in April that had him leading by eight points, Talarico has not led in any reputable independent polling.
Still, it is already clear that this is going to be the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history, and that it will not be an easy one for Republicans, given the overall challenging political environment and the personal scandals in Paxton’s background. Many people speak of him as a Republican Graham Platner, but the difference is that people in Texas have already elected and re-elected Paxton to statewide office multiple times. The Republican Party’s establishment wing has taken every swing at him that it possibly could, and there is nothing out there that people don’t already know about him.
