The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 32
Aug. 17, 2026
This week:
- Why the pollsters were less wrong than you think
- Hong aside, socialism is becoming a real November problem for Democrats
- It is telling whom Ron DeSantis will not endorse
Outlook
Socialist underperformance: The loss by socialist Francesca Hong (D) for the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor caught us as much by surprise as anyone. Like everyone else, we expected her to win. We would have been even more assured of her victory if we had known that 65,000 voters were going to vote for non-socialist Democrats who had already dropped out of the race weeks before election day, as we pointed out before the race.
Equally surprising, one week before Hong’s loss, was the extremely narrow win eked out by Abdul El-Sayed (D) for the Senate nomination in Michigan. The candidate, who is heavily involved with the Democratic Socialists of America (despite disowning the organization), was supposed to win on Aug. 4 by a significant margin. Instead, he just barely squeaked through.
Many blamed the pollsters for getting the margins wrong — and not without reason. The numbers, taken all together, pointed to a huge win by Hong and El-Sayed. At the Washington Examiner, Zach Faria had a typical conservative reaction, asking whether pollsters are “compromised by socialists, or just incompetent?”
But here is something of a hot take: Perhaps the pollsters did not do as badly as it seems.
First of all, it must be acknowledged that there is a big difference between primary and general elections when it comes to polling. The tides in primary elections have a genuine possibility of shifting rapidly, unlike in general elections. That is because primaries are usually contests between candidates with largely compatible worldviews. The potential voters in primary elections can genuinely change their minds between candidates based on events or news. This is the opposite of general elections, in which partisans are highly unlikely to defect to the other side, even if they turn out at lower or higher rates depending on circumstances.
Low ceiling: Moreover, in Wisconsin, most late polls (not all of them) correctly predicted something very close to the exact vote share that the socialist candidate ended up receiving — 39 percent. What the pollsters had not counted on, and perhaps could not have counted on, was that just enough voters opposed to the socialist candidate would rapidly consolidate behind the only viable opponent, even though he had only re-entered the race just before the election.
The situation in Michigan was slightly different. Most polls put El-Sayed well above 50 percent in the Democratic primary — one as high as 56 percent. Yet he won by less than the 61,400-vote total of progressive state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D), who had already dropped out of the race. One poll did correctly predict his sub-50 finish. It also showed he had only a 64 percent favorable rating among Democratic voters, which is rather low but still higher than that of Rep. Haley Stevens (D), whom he defeated on Aug. 4.
If there is a lesson from both Wisconsin and Michigan, it is that socialists have a hard ceiling of support in Democratic primaries — a ceiling that the polls in Wisconsin accurately detected but polls in Michigan did not. What the pollsters in both states missed: A lot of voters will turn out specifically to oppose socialist candidates who take crazy positions, even if those voters have no strong feelings about the other candidates in the race.
This should put a bit of fear into Democrats about November. Although Hong’s loss means that Democrats won’t be carrying DSA baggage into the open-seat Wisconsin governor race, their Senate candidates in Maine and Michigan are vulnerable as DSA or DSA-adjacent candidates.
Already, the closeness of the polls in Maine (where the Republican incumbent has a history of being badly underestimated by pollsters) and the Republican lead in two recent Senate polls in Michigan (something that hasn’t happened this century) suggest that the socialism effect is a real problem for Democrats.
This year’s race could become somewhat reminiscent of the 2010 election cycle, when Republicans went too far with some of their nominees and let at least two or three winnable Senate seats slip past them as a consequence. Republicans are now being given at least a chance — a lifeline in a difficult election year — by Democrats’ poor choices in their primaries. If Democrats lose the seat in Michigan and fail to flip the seat in Maine, their chances of a Senate majority (and thus their chances to pack the Supreme Court, as they are openly discussing) are in serious peril.
Governor 2026
Florida: Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) is overwhelmingly favored to become the Republican nominee for governor of Florida and to face former Congressman and former Republican David Jolly (D). The bid by Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (R) never really took off, to the point that term-limited Gov. Ron Desantis (R) declined even to endorse him against Donalds.
Wisconsin: Incredibly, Milwaukee County executive David Crowley (D) pulled it off, just barely defeating the anti-Thanksgiving Hong for the Democratic nomination by less than 4,000 votes. He managed this even though more than 65,000 voters had backed other anti-Hong candidates, Lt. Gov. Sarah Rodriguez (D) and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, whose names both appeared on the ballot but who had already both dropped out of the race. Instead of a much easier race for Rep. Tom Tiffany (R) in the general election, this will probably become a barn-burner in which the Democrat is slightly favored.
Senate 2026
Alaska: Although Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan (R) and former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) are certain to win the top two slots on the four-candidate ranked-choice ballot in the general election, but the outcome could be shaped by the question of who makes the third and fourth slot. Democrats have tried to boost the unrelated Democrat Daniel J. Sullivan, who is running as a Republican to create voter confusion. As we have noted previously, this is just one more data point showing how ranked-choice voting has degraded the state’s elections and created perverse incentives for the parties and candidates.
Florida: Democrats are counting on Alex Vindman (D) of Trump first-impeachment fame, who has raised an astounding $16.7 million, to win tomorrow’s primary and become the dark-horse underdog contender against appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.). Vindman is heavily favored over left-wing state Rep. Angie Nixon (D). Moody, a former attorney general of Florida, leads in every reputable poll of the race.
South Carolina: With the endorsement of third-place finisher Russell Fry (R), Trump-backed appointed Sen. Darline Graham Nordone (R) must be considered at least a slight favorite in the Aug. 25 runoff election against upstate U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman (R). The race is to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, Graham Nordone’s brother, as the Republican nominee on the fall ballot. The winner will be heavily favored against pediatrician Annie Andrews (D) in November.
House 2026
Florida-7: In addition to his lieutenant governor, whom DeSantis implied isn’t doing what it takes to win, DeSantis is not endorsing scandal-tainted Rep. Cory Mills (R) for re-election in central Florida district, which stretches from Sanford to New Smyrna Beach. In fact, DeSantis is actively un-endorsing him, having said he does not support him.
Also, fellow Republican House members Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos have gone so far as to endorse his primary opponent, former news anchor Ryan Elijah (R).
Mills faces a House ethics investigation and also became subject to a restraining order last fall after allegedly threatening to release explicit videos of his former girlfriend.
