The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 30
Aug. 3, 2026
This week:
- Kansas tomorrow, Idaho in November: A crucial year for state-level abortion politics
- Wisconsin Democrats play musical chairs in governor primary
- El-Sayed is the late favorite in Michigan’s Senate race tomorrow
Outlook
Roe v. Wade may no longer be a federal question. But it will be a question in a few key states this year, including one where it plays a subtle role tomorrow.
Referendum in the heartland: Kansas voters will head to the polls tomorrow to decide whether to change how their state Supreme Court justices are chosen. The current system for selecting justices, which involves commissions making recommendations, has allowed liberals to take over and override the state constitution.
A system of elected justices, although perhaps less than ideal for other reasons, would at least give conservatives more of a fair shot at passing their democratically-backed agenda without specious judicial interference. And tomorrow’s primary — which features a spirited contest on the Republican side for governor with multiple possible winners — has a chance of passing.
The referendum is being framed by some mainstream journalists as a “sleeper” vote that is actually a referendum on abortion. For although it is not the only issue where the Kansas Supreme Court has recently upset conservatives, it is one of the most prominent. A “yes” vote would open the way eventually to a court that might at least allow the legislature to enact modest restrictions on abortion.
Idaho Proposition One: After the fight in Kansas, voters in Idaho — where abortion is currently illegal — will decide in NOvember whether to pass Proposition One, a measure that would effectively wipe out all restrictions on abortion, allowing it through the ninth month with a doctor’s sign-off and allowing minors to obtain abortions without parental consent. Its language about “any individual” having a right to access “reproductive health care” regardless of age would potentially allow transgender procedures on children, which state law also currently bans, depending on how courts interpret it.
Pro-lifers must ask themselves now what their movement can accomplish if they cannot win in a place like Idaho. This is the fiftieth state they ought to lose in out of fifty.
The 2026 election will be about a lot of things. It will see many different electoral and partisan trends, some due to history and others due to At the very least, the pro-life movement needs to win this winnable race and show the proof of concept — that in one of the nation’s most conservative, fastest growing and best-run states, it can turn out the vote to foster a culture of life can be fostered and sustain it in law.
Governor 2026
Michigan: Businessman Perry Johnson (R) has come forward with a strong late challenge against Rep. John James (R), who has long been the favorite for the Republican nomination for governor. James remains a narrow favorite with a shrinking lead in what is still a race that could go either way.
Given Michigan’s cycle of bucking electoral trends and the potential for a party-breaking disaster in the Senate primary, either Republican would have a sporting chance in the general election against the expected Democratic nominee, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D).
Wisconsin: So many Democrats have been hopping in and out of this race that the average voter must be a bit dizzy. After Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (D) was forced to quit the race under a cloud of campaign finance irregularity, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) bowed out as well last week as Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (R), who had dropped out earlier, got back in.
The goal of all this chaos is to stop the frontrunner Francesca Hong (D) — the Democratic Socialists of America candidate, who supports police-, prison- and U.S. Senate-abolition, although she is trying to distance herself now from some of these positions.
The winner will take on Rep. Tom Tiffany (R).
Senate 2026
Maine: It is perhaps a sign of the trouble Democrats have that Gov. Janet Mills (D) did not immediately endorse nominee Troy Jackson (D), the DSA-backed candidate who earlier lost the primary to succeed her as governor. So far, she could only bring herself to say that incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) “should be defeated.” There is enormous pressure on active Democratic politicians to support the party’s craziest elements, but not on Democrats like Mills, whose careers are over and who are quitting or retiring.
Michigan: At the beginning of July, it really looked like Michigan Democrats were stepping back from the brink, preparing to nominate the supposedly safe establishment choice for U.S. Senate — U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D), instead of socialist anti-Israel radical Abdul El-Sayed (D). By late July, however, every single late poll in the race was suggesting that El-Sayed is a huge favorite in tomorrow’s primary election and will probably even win by double digits.
Although not all polls agree on this, an El-Sayed win is widely believed to be good for Republicans, who have not won a Senate race in Michigan in 30 years. A loss here for Democrats to the Republican nominee — former House Intelligence Chairman Mike Rogers (R) — would likely leave them no path to a Senate majority.
South Carolina: Emerson’s initial poll of the sudden special election for Senate from South Carolina points to a runoff scenario in the Republican primary. The crowded field would most likely be winnowed down to Rep. Ralph Norman (R) and the appointed sister the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), Darline Graham Nordone (R). So far, President Trump’s endorsement of Graham Nardone has not made her the obvious favorite at this point, but that could change in a less-crowded runoff election.
Texas: A Fox News poll has James Talarico winning this race, 51 to 48 percent over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). But you should be a bit skeptical, since the same poll has Gov. Greg Abbott (R) winning re-election by just one percentage point, 50 to 49, over generic Democrat state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D). This suggests the poll is a bit of an outlier.
