The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 29
July 27, 2026
This week:
- Socialist takeover could make expected Democrat wins harder
- A broke DNC doesn’t mean Republicans win, but it could help
- Maine Democrats pick a new nominee
Outlook
With the end of primary season fast approaching, Democrats are still hoping to seize both houses of Congress. And they have at least a shot.
The House is considered the easy target, just based on the history and the generic ballot polling. At least one poll also exists in each case (even if they are sketchy-looking or outliers) showing them with a reasonable shot at improbable Senate wins in races in such unlikely places as Texas, Alaska, Ohio, and even Iowa, in addition to the places where they absolutely must win — North Carolina, Maine, and the states where they are defending seats.
But all is still not well in the Democrats’ tent.
Rise of the revolution: For one thing, many of them seem to be in denial about the socialist takeover of their party and how it potentially threatens their brand.
A majority of Democrats now view socialism favorably. Seventy-seven percent of independents do not. The mismatch is not the best look going into a contested midterm. It is an open question whether the average Democrat can distance himself or herself from what is increasingly the main locus of the party’s energy.
It is one thing to talk about Democrats loving their country — and many of them still do. But an increasing number of their nominees for political offices openly state that the United States is the locus of all evil in the modern world. Darializa Avila Chevalier (D-N.Y.), who can at this point basically pick out the drapes for her congressional office, has within the last eight years called Joe Biden a “rapist” and accused Barack Obama of being “evil.” She even faulted Bernie Sanders for being a Zionist, which is probably why he did not endorse her — but New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani did, and she defeated the head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
No matter what sort of half-baked apologies she subsequently offered in order to win her race, her own personal candidacy is just a side note. Far more important, her attitudes are indicative of the revolutionary socialism that is overtaking the Democratic Party in big cities like New York, Denver, and Seattle. People who think it is unjust to incarcerate violent criminals are taking over one of the nation’s two major political parties.
DNC finances: The second problem is a very different one. The Democratic National Committee is apparently broke and asking vendors not to bill them until after the coming election. The situation has apparently resulted in some serious office drama that involves the throwing of telephones. The party committee is in the red, borrowing against its Southwest D.C. headquarters building and trailing its Republican counterpart by more than $100 million already. Meanwhile, Democratic candidates with doubtful chances — Alex Vindman in Florida, James Talarico in Texas, and the now-politically deceased Graham Platner in Maine come to mind especially — are sucking up a vastly disproportionate amount of the money available to the party as a whole.
If President Trump’s two election victories (and his 2020 near-victory) proved anything, it is that money doesn’t buy elections. Depending on how you count it, Democrats outspent him by a ratio ranging from three-to-one to five-to-one, yet he either almost tied or won the national election in all three cases.
In other words, the role of money in politics is obviously exaggerated. In fact, it is very amusing to watch the same liberals who practically worship the issue get crushed repeatedly in elections where they dominated the spending.
So that should temper Republican hopes about a broke DNC giving them a serious advantage. Yet even so, a financial advantage that great is nothing to sneeze at, especially after the recent Supreme Court decision striking down limits on coordination between political parties and their candidates.
The problem with the money, as with the socialism, is not that it will cause a Republican Red tsunami. Rather, it is that it will cost Democrats marginal wins they need for power in places like Wisconsin’s governor race (see below) and perhaps Maine and a few other close-fought races.
Senate 2026
Maine: After a wild primary season, the downfall of Graham Platner, and an anticlimactic weekend convention, Democrats have officially selected former State Senate President Troy Jackson (D) as their nominee. This widely expected outcome will give way to one of the nation’s most competitive Senate races this year. In the first poll, from the University of New Hampshire, Jackson leads moderate Sen. Susan Collins (R), 49 to 46 percent. Democrats probably cannot win the Senate without winning in Maine.
Michigan: At this late stage, with the endorsement of exiting Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), the conventional wisdom has establishment favorite U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) reasserting control in this Democratic primary and winning the nomination over former Wayne County health official Abdul El-Sayed (D) in next week’s primary election, thanks to a huge blast of last-minute spending. Yet Democrats are not out of the woods here: El-Sayed’s campaign produced an internal poll last week showing him with 56 percent support and a comfortable victory margin. Election Day is Aug. 4.
Minnesota: Republicans are headed overwhelmingly toward nominating Michelle Tafoya (R) over 2024 Senate nominee Royce White (R), who lost to Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) (running for governor this year) by 16 points. The Democratic contest for the Aug. 11 primary, however, will be a much more exciting finish, with Rep. Angie Craig (D) and the much more radical Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) are tied up at 40 percent each in a local media poll taken last week. Republicans have not been competitive in Minnesota for a long time, but a Flanagan victory next month would at least give them a fighting chance.
South Carolina: Someone evidently wants to get former prosecutor and Congressman and current Fox News host Trey Gowdy (R) into the race to succeed the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R). The race is already quite crowded, but a new poll released last week tested Gowdy anyway, who has expressed no interest in running. Against a number of relatively obscure candidates — this includes current and former members of congress, as well as appointed Sen. Darline Graham Nordone (R) — Gowdy would lead by double-digits. He insists he has no interest, which makes the poll pretty useless.
The deadline to file for the special election race is tomorrow.
Governor 2026
Wisconsin: Three internal polls completed last Monday or later — after Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) had already re-entered the Democratic primary for governor — all suggest that Democrats’ last-minute ballot maneuvering in this race has not helped them avoid nominating a weak contender. In fact, it has probably backfired, as we anticipated it would.
Socialist police-abolitionist and state Rep. Francesca Hong (D) has expanded her lead in separate internal polls for three of her rivals, including Crowley and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D).
Hong is the only Democrat in the Marquette Law poll who trails Rep. Tom Tiffany (R) in a general election ballot test.(She also leads in the Marquette poll, but that poll is less relevant since it was conducted before Crowley’s re-entry.)
Meanwhile, Republican groups smell blood and are spending millions to boost Hong’s campaign, according to local news reporting.
