The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 39
Oct. 5, 2026
This week:
- Leaky boat: The good, bad, and worse news for Senate Republicans
- Republican candidates suddenly struggle in supposedly safe states
- Texas Republicans turn to their candidate’s ex-wife
Outlook
First, the good news for Republicans: Their Senate nominees in Iowa and Maine seem to be running better than they were before. Both Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) are leading in at least as many recent polls as they are trailing in. They are both strong campaigners with robust bases of support in their respective states, and the liberal application of campaign money is clearly having a positive effect on their chances.
Then there’s the so-so news: In other states where they are defending vulnerable seats — Ohio, Texas, and Alaska — Republican candidates clearly trail but are at least keeping their races close enough that a modest, historically precedented outperformance of their polling could be enough for them to win. That isn’t the greatest news, but given that Republicans have outperformed polling in most of those states in recent elections — especially in Texas and Ohio — there is at least still some hope to cling to.
But then there is the really bad news for Republicans: Even as this already sub-optimal situation materializes — including an eight-point deficit on the generic ballot — the bottom is falling out in states that had been expected to be much more reliable for them. Republican candidates suddenly find themselves struggling in states such as Kansas and South Carolina, where they should not be having a tough time. At the very least, these newly-sprung leaks will require redirection of scarce resources — the party is reportedly planning to spend $14 million in Kansas alone to rescue Sen. Roger Marshall (R).
As we noted last week, Trump’s entire legacy as president, let alone his ability to govern for the next two years, probably rests on Republicans’ ability to retain the Senate, very much against the prevailing political currents. He of all people cannot afford to be stingy at this point.
Comparison to Biden 2024: Where does that put Republicans? Here is an analogy: In spring 2024, we said of Joe Biden’s campaign that his plan to win in the Electoral College had started to resemble a leaky boat. By that time, it was already clear that Biden would have to win every single one of several swing states in order to win re-election, and that there were just too many of those states where he was already trailing or clearly struggling. His chances of holding the entire picture together until November 2024 seemed slim in February, long before his fateful June 27 debate performance.
So here is an analogy: Senate Republicans are now the ones with the leaky boat. Although their situation is not quite as hopeless as Biden’s was, it is dire. Their chances in North Carolina already look poor, which represents a loss of one seat. They can afford to lose no more than three seats on net. In order to preserve their majority, it will no longer be enough just for them to outperform the polls by a few points. They will also have to use every possible tool and every possible dollar to resist the clear trands of discontent within the electorate.
What’s more, there is no reason to believe this will be enough. And there is also a chance that things will instead get much worse instead of improving. Why? First, the reality of $5-a-gallon gasoline is hitting the public’s consciousness at exactly the wrong time. Second, there is the unknown. In September 2006, before the historic rout of Republicans that propelled Democrats to a filibuster-proof majority by mid-2009, a sex scandal involving then-Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.), his former pages and a potential coverup suddenly changed the entire picture. Up to that point, Republicans seemed to have a small chance of holding on in the House or Senate; with the scandal, Republican polling collapsed overnight across the map.
The lesson: When teetering on the edge, remember that anything that can get better can also get much worse. As much as conservatives want to be optimistic, it also isn’t too late for a highly negative October surprise that sends them reeling worse than anything they could have expected up to this point.
Senate 2026
Iowa: As noted above, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) is still very much in this race, if only just. She would lead in its polling average if not for one outlier poll from Marist last month, which is one reason the futures markets prefer her slightly. She keeps clinging to a narrow lead in the race for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R). Ernst defied the polls to win by a very convincing margin in 2020, but that was behind a strong performance in the Hawkeye State that year by President Trump.
Michigan: Former House Intelligence Chairman Mike Rogers (R) is another candidate whose race is close enough that he has a genuine chance still — in this case at gaining a seat that is currently Democratic. Time will tell whether all the advertising about the extremism of his opponent, former Wayne County health official Abdul El-Sayed (D), has the desired effect.
Michigan is an interesting state because it has been under Democratic rule for eight years now and its voters often run against the national current. Also, even a very modest outperformance in the polls — like the two-point outperformance Trump achieved in 2024 — might be enough for Rogers to get the win.
Texas: The drag that Attorney General and Senate nominee Ken Paxton (R) is clearly having on Republicans across the state is evident enough that the state party has turned to his soon-to-be-ex-wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton (R).
In a new ad that ran during football games over the weekend, Mrs. Paxton urged voters to back “the Republican ticket,” explaining that “in a general election, it’s not as much about the individual players on the team; it’s about getting the whole team across the finish line. Either we hold every Republican seat, or we hand the future of Texas to the other team.” She does not mention her husband by name.
It is not a persuasive message — certainly less catchy and less dramatic than “Vote for the crook, it’s important,” which might be a better idea — but it is not really an attempt at persuasion. It shows that Texas Republicans are worried about losing the support of their own base voters, not just swing voters. In Paxton, Texas Republicans may have found the line they won’t cross, the candidate that causes many of them to discard their “vote Red no matter who” attitudes.
Paxton has trailed in most recent polls by one or two points, with a few outliers showing him further behind than that. Although polls historiclaly underestimate Republicans in Texas, this was not the case in the analogous midterm year of 2018, when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) led then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) in all polls and in most of them by five points or more, but won by less than three points.
