The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 34
Aug. 31, 2026
This week:
- The importance of keeping the Senate
- Another socialist upset brewing in New Hampshire?
- Paxton struggling while other Republicans lead in their races
Outlook
Importance of the Senate: If you had suggested last year that Republicans might lose control of the U.S. Senate by losing in Texas and Alaska as opposed to, say, Maine and Ohio, it would have seemed rather far-fetched. Yet here we are.
And although there have been interesting developments in a number of races — including Republicans putting races in New Hampshire and Michigan in play — Republican voters may not appreciate just how debilitating it would be for Trump’s presidency if their party were to lose at least four seats on net and the Senate majority.
Recall that in the Blue Wave election of 2018, Republicans lost the U.S. House but actually gained two net seats in the U.S. Senate by seizing four formerly Democratic Senate seats in red states. This meant that in his first (and far less effective) administration, Trump at least always had some leverage in fights with Democrats over spending and authorization bills and other must-pass legislation.
What will this second administration look like if Democrats get full control of Congress? That never happened in Trump’s first term. Will Democrats simply start shutting the government down until Trump complies with whatever they want? Would voters punish them for such a thing? Would their own voter base allow them to come to any sort of modus vivendi with Trump?
An important point to consider: The incentive structure for Democrats in Congress with presidential aspirations will be to resist Trump on everything, no matter the cost. After all, their Democratic competitors running from outside the Congress will have the luxury of idly posturing against any and all cooperation with Trump whatsoever, at no political cost to themselves. They can’t very well cede the high ground by voting to give Trump any agency.
Judiciary and other appointments: Republicans’ strong 2018 Senate outcome meant that Republicans controlled the Senate for the entire time Trump has been president (with the exception of a few weeks in January 2021). This had another very important consequence: It ultimately gave Trump unprecedented influence over the federal judiciary during his first term.
The reasons are complicated, involving a number of factors. Democrats’ fateful 2013 decision to abolish the filibuster for most judicial confirmations, the 2014 election blowout in Republicans’ favor, and the unexpected nature of Trump’s 2016 victory all combined to put Trump into power at a time when many Democratic judges had already committed to retire (expecting to be replaced by President Hillary Clinton), and Trump would not need a filibuster-proof majority to replace any of them. This is why, after just five-and-a-half years as president, Trump has already appointed more federal appellate court judges (64) than George W. Bush (62) or Barack Obama (55) in their respective eight-year terms in office. He will likely match Bill Clinton’s total (66) by the end of this year, which will make him the most prolific by this important standard since Ronald Reagan (85), who set the overall record for judicial confirmations.
Indeed, during his first term, Trump nearly brought ideological parity to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals — arguably his most underappreciated accomplishment as president.
Uninterrupted Republican control of the U.S. Senate also let Trump confirm three Supreme Court justices in just four years.
Under the U.S. Constitution, only the Senate participates in confirmations. The narrowly divided Senate this year has resulted in very heated confirmation battles over positions, most recently attorney general. Democrats are so strongly opposed to anything Trump does that we could end up with many key positions unfilled or passed around between “acting” officials, who can only serve in such capacities for so long.
And then there is the judiciary. It is not clear what would happen if a Supreme Court vacancy were to open up next year with a Democratic Senate. Democrats would probably refuse to seat any Trump nominee. They would surely cite the precedent that former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) set when took a political risk and kept a Supreme Court vacancy open through the next election. Republicans had won the majority in 2014, he reasoned, and therefore they would not let President Barack Obama replace Justice Antonin Scalia. It is anyone’s guess what they would have done if Hillary Clinton had won in 2016
Another thing to consider in the next Senate is that there are really no more of the Joe Manchin-Kirsten Sinema moderate Democrats left. The closest thing is Sen. John Fetterman (D), who is quite liberal but somewhat reasonable in some respects. Already, he is unlikely to survive a Democratic primary in 2028.
This is setting up a significantly worse nomination bottleneck situation than the one George W. Bush faced during the roughly four years of his presidency when Democrats controlled the U.S. Senate. It means that Trump will have to appoint a lot of Democratic judges to the bench, and that he probably would not be able to replace any Supreme Court justice who calls it quits or dies during the remainder of his term in office.
Senate 2026
Massachusetts: In an election cycle where the far left has made such great gains in the Democratic Party, it would be odd indeed to see Rep. Seth Moulton (D) defeat Sen. Ed Markey (D) in tomorrow’s primary. The two surveys taken in August by UMass-Amherst and the University of New Hampshire (assuming they weren’t faked, because that is apparently a thing now) suggest a double-digit lead for Markey, despite Moulton’s endorsement by the Boston Globe. This is not a race where Republicans have any serious chance.
Michigan: Democratic nominee Abdul Al-Sayed (D) tried to draw an interesting but wholly inapt analogy between Canon Law — the internal code governing Catholic Church affairs — and Sharia Law, which governs all aspects of life for Muslims and non-Muslims alike in the countries where it is in effect.
New Hampshire: Former Sen. John Sununu (R) is on pace to win his primary easily over former Massachusetts U.S. Senator Scott Brown (R). The headline from last week was that the latest poll from the University of New Hampshire gives him a tiny lead over Rep. Chris Pappas (D), at least suggesting this is a race Republicans can put on the table.
It stands to reason that Sununu, a universally known quantity in the state, will run well with Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) at the top of the ballot. She remains popular after her first term and at the end of a decade of Republican rule, most of which has included full control of the state legislature.
However, the Democratic side is getting more interesting. It is less and less certain each day that Pappas will actually be the Democrats’ nominee. Although he seemed like a lock earlier in the summer, far-left DSA socialist Karishma Manzur (D) has been rapidly closing the gap in the Democratic primary, going from a 24-point deficit against Pappas in June to just a 13-point deficit earlier this month. Pappas’s campaign insists that it ain’t so, they’re going to win in a blowout. But as the example of Angie Nixon (D) in Florida should have taught us by now, do not sleep on these DSA candidates. Polling in primary elections should be distrusted, as it can be very volatile, because voters’ loyalties to one candidate over the other are weaker when they are choosing between candidates they more or less agree with on most issues.
This primary election takes place next week on Tuesday, Sept. 8.
Texas: Yes, it’s Texas, but Republicans need to be worrying a lot more about this one.
A poll from Texas Public Opinion Research puts James Talarico (D) comfortably ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), 48 to 42 percent. Although this is not the first poll to show such a result, it is the first to show it while also showing all other Republican statewide candidates leading their Democratic opponents. The good news for Paxton: It is unlikely that he will win only 80 percent of Republican voters, as the poll’s crosstabs suggest. The bad news for him is that he is losing by this wide margin in a pool of respondents that is also running 49 to 42 percent in favor of Gov. Greg Abbott (R). Republican candidates for lieutenant governor, attorney general, land commissioner, railroad commissioner, and agriculture commissioner are also leading their respective Democratic opponents.
Paxton has an image problem and is uniquely disliked among Texas voters, with a net approval rating of minus-10, in contrast with Abbott’s net-even rating.
