The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 28
July 14, 2025
This week:
- Epstein saga is causing real drama in Trump-world
- Trump for Senate?
- Paxton’s divorce adds a new wrinkle in Texas Senate race
Outlook
Jeffrey Epstein: Last week’s blowup over the Jeffrey Epstein files has created the largest major public rift of the second Trump administration — bigger even than the Trump-Musk rift, because it touches an issue that marginal Trump supporters care about much more.
It is rare to see Trump become visibly annoyed by something like this as he did recently. That alone sets this controversy apart from others that have arisen so far.
At issue is Attorney General Pam Bondi’s supposedly botched handling of the release of evidence related to the late Epstein’s sex-trafficking operation. The question is whether Epstein had a so-called “client list” (the claim that he doesn’t have one has now been made far too late for some to believe it), whether he actually did kill himself in jail, and whether members of the new administration aren’t continuing a cover-up instigated by previous administrations because Epstein served as a U.S. intelligence asset — supposedly the reason prosecutors had gone easy on him in 2008, although his involvement with U.S. intelligence has never been verified. Alternative theories are that Epstein was spared then or to salve British feelings about Prince Andrew’s involvement, or even to avoid disclosures about Israeli intelligence gathering. (Israel strenuously denies any involvement.)
Fallout: There are many potential legitimate reasons why not all Epstein information can be released — the release of innocent people’s names is surely among them, and a lot of information could identify victims or even re-victimize them. Or yes, in the alternative, this could be a cover-up. Our concern is with the political fallout.
There is some segment of the electorate for which this is the main issue, which is paying very close attention. This is probably not a large segment of the electorate, but it represents the marginal Trump voter.
The consequences to the administration’s effectiveness seem to be the most important. FBI Director Kash Patel will probably stay on. This does not seem a given for Dan Bongino, his deputy, who has gone on leave and is reportedly demanding Bondi be fired or else he will resign. That’s a big ask, considering that Trump and Bondi go back a long way — she was his personal attorney previously. Bongino, who gave up a well-paying radio gig and a very large national audience to go back into public service, may also have to resign just in order to avoid a loss of credibility with that audience — although it will be very interesting to hear what he says later.
The fundamental problem here seems to be that too many people over-promised with their public statements about what might be in the Epstein files and are now unable to do anything but under-deliver.
This stands in sharp contrast with most of the Trump administration’s work this time, which has followed the rule of UPOD — under-promise, over-deliver.
Governor 2026
Florida: Rep. Byron Donalds (R) is the narrow favorite in the GOP primary in a new poll out from St. Pete Polls. In what remains a hypothetical matchup for now, he leads First Lady Casey DeSantis (R) 35 to 27 percent, with all others in single digits. If Mrs. DeSantis does not run to succeed her husband, then Donalds’s chances look even better.
Iowa: Rep. Zach Nunn (R) is staying in place and defending his swing seat in the southwest of Iowa rather than running for governor next year. President Trump himself apparently intervened to bring about this decision — understandable given Republicans’ need to hold the U.S. House in 2026. Rep. Randy Feenstra (R), who represents the state’s heavily Republican northwest, thus begins as a clear frontrunner for governor. A perverse result of Iowa’s supposedly nonpartisan redistricting is that the most conservative Republican House member has a lot more flexibility and better political prospects because Republicans will have no problem holding his seat.
Senate 2026
Minnesota: Polls show that a lot of Democrats want a more radical approach, and here’s one place where they may get it. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) leads moderate Rep. Angie Craig (D) in a new primary poll, 32 percent to 18 percent. Republicans, whose chances here are not great, have still made clear they prefer for Democrats to nominate Flanagan.
Nebraska: Yes, he made a real race of it last year against Sen. Deb Fischer (R), losing only by single digits. So independent Dan Osborn (I) plans to run again now, this time with the Democratic Party’s open blessing but not its toxic label, against Sen. and former Gov. Pete Ricketts (R).
Democrats formally intend to sit this one out, as part of their new strategy of running Democrats who are not officially Democratic candidates in states where their party is too thoroughly despised.
Osborn (no relation to the former Cornhusker football coach and congressman Tom Osborne) will have a harder time making it a close contest against Ricketts, who has a massive personal fortune to spend if needed, is already a well-known quantity in the state, and who won 63 percent of the vote in his 2024 special election.
North Carolina: Although the official decision isn’t in yet, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is at least floating trial balloons with local journalists suggesting he will indeed run for the open U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring incumbent Thom Tillis (R). Cooper is the most formidable candidate Democrats can run. Attorney General Jeff Jackson (D) has said he will not run and that if Cooper runs, he will support him.
On the Republican side, first daughter-in-law Lara Trump (R) is considering a bid and has the avid support of RNC Chairman Michael Whatley. A Trump candidacy could be a double-edged sword, since Trump is popular and North Carolina is increasingly Republican by voter registration, yet midterm elections tend to cut sharply not only against presidents’ parties but also against presidents in particular.
Texas: Attorney General Ken Paxton’s (R) very messy and public divorce, initiated by his Republican lawmaker wife, will surely be used throughout the coming Republican primary by incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R), a steadfast ally of President Trump who has assisted in his choice of judges, albeit he is to some a disappointingly moderate lawmaker for his state.
For now, the White House is not picking sides in this race. Note that Rep. Wesley Hunt (R) might well get in on this race as well, and a Paxton implosion against a deeply unpopular Cornyn could offer him an avenue to victory.
Texas voters were forgiving toward Paxton during his 2022 re-election, despite being aware of the adultery allegations contained in this divorce file. Still, that doesn’t necessarily mean Republican primary voters are going to decide Paxton is their best bet to hold what could, much to Republicans’ chagrin, become a competitive Senate race.
