The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 27
July 7, 2025
This week:
- Trump reaches his high point so far
- A week of big wins leading up to July 4
- Scheme to overcome toxic Dem brand comes to Idaho
Outlook
After last week’s events, President Donald Trump has reached the pinnacle of his political career so far. That’s not to say he cannot accomplish more, but he has never succeeded before at so many things so quickly.
In fact, it would be difficult to find any presidency whose promises were kept so completely in less than six months.
‘Big, Beautiful’ passage: The most important element by far came last Thursday — the passage of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act of 2025. That was, incredibly, the actual name of Trump’s budget reconciliation bill, until — perhaps even more incredibly — Senate Democrats deleted the name from the bill with a unanimous consent request. Despite their high hopes that they could derail this bill and Trump’s agenda overall, thus regaining their footing in opposition, this purely symbolic move was the only accomplishment they made in the entire process. Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) were then able once again to pull the rabbit out of the hat and run the Senate-altered version of the bill back through the U.S. House. Trump signed it on the Fourth of July, capping off his biggest success to date.
The bill extends Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, and sets a budget outline that includes Medicaid reforms and far more resources for mass deportations. Oddly, Democrats dwelt almost exclusively on Medicaid cuts during the process, only to begin complaining about the money for additional mass deportations after it had already passed.
The passage of this bill means that Trump’s full agenda will be implemented during his term. It also means that he has already kept most of the promises he made on the campaign trail, including no taxes on tips (up to $25,000 of them, at least), no taxes on Social Security income (for about 90 percent of seniors), and an increased cap (to $40,000) on the state and local tax or SALT deduction.
On the spending side of the ledger, Trump also had a few bonus accomplishments that conservatives probably were not expecting — the defunding of Planned Parenthood and the abolition of USAID being two of them.
The remaining promises Trump has not yet kept are largely non-policy items. There will still be tons of pressure for his administration to release the full Jeffrey Epstein sex-trafficking files. Then again, conservatives would just as soon forget that Trump promised to pay for everyone’s IVF during the campaign.
Jobs report: Democrats were trying to get some momentum in their fight against the “big beautiful bill” by arguing that the economy was souring under Trump. The Bureau of Labor Statistics dampened their argument, though, by releasing an unexpectedly strong jobs report that showed native-born workers gaining an especially large number of jobs.
Supreme Court ruling: The Supreme Court’s recent ruling barring most (but not all) universal injunctions will clear the way for Trump to implement his agenda going forward on everything from a revamping of the nuclear industry to higher education reform to mass deportations. It was a carefully planned and choreographed attempt to get the issue in front of the justices, since Trump is all but certain to lose the underlying case — which is about birthright citizenship — on the merits.
UPenn apology: As gravy, the University of Pennsylvania submitted to federal defunding threats and agreed to apologize to female athletes for allowing a male athlete to compete against women in swimming. The Trump administration threatened hundreds of millions of dollars in funding for UPenn. The university allegedly bullied female athletes into accepting Lia (formerly William) Thomas’s participation on their team, at the potential expense of actual women making the swim team, winning scholarships, and winning victories and recognition, thus violating Title IX.
This is a huge win for Trump, and one that strikes at the heart of what cost Democrats the male vote especially in the 2024 election. Democrats intransigence on transgenderism, against broad public opposition to gender ideology, flies in the face of political common-sense after Kamala Harris’s destruction over this issue specifically in ad after ad during football season. The possibility remains that this albatross will follow many of their candidates right into the next election season — for example, with candidates for governor (starting in New Jersey) being asked if they will continue to house men in women’s prisons.
The Trump administration’s next move is to begin jawboning the Federal Reserve for an interest rate cut, although last week’s positive jobs news makes this marginally less likely.
Senate 2026
Georgia: Rep. Mike Collins (R) is reportedly preparing to announce a bid for Senate against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). A Trump White House endorsement could be in the offing.
Idaho: Not that anyone was wondering, but Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) has an opponent. State Rep. Todd Achilles (D) has resigned from his West Bench and Garden City-based legislative district (just to the northwest of downtown Boise) and announced his intention to run against Risch as an independent for U.S. Senate. This is not a situation like the one in Mississippi, where a Democrat being pushed out of the race against Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) by Democratic Party leaders.
This is, rather, another case of Democrats’ brand being so toxic in many red states that they are abandoning the brand, albeit only in name, to run as independents. This has happened already in Utah, Nebraska and Kansas especially, with varying degrees of success. In each of those cases, the independent did better than most Democrats do. And there is ample reason to believe an independent in Idaho will do better than anyone with the Democratic brand next to his or her name. Even so, that doesn’t mean this scheme will work.
North Carolina: Former Gov. Roy Cooper’s (D) decision on whether to run for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R) could be coming later this month. The Republican field has been upended by the Tillis’s surprising retirement announcement, which came right after he voted against Trump’s budget bill.
South Carolina: Former Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R) is officially challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) in the 2026 primary. In the current environment, this challenge must be taken seriously — especially given Graham’s reputation as a massive fan of regime-change wars and nation-building.
Texas: Former Rep. Colin Allred (D) has entered another Senate race. Once again, he appears to have a real chance, if only because of the unpredictability on the Republican side. Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) is challenging Sen. John Cornyn (R) in the primary this coming March, and Cornyn looks exceptionally weak in the polls.
