The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 49
Dec. 8, 2025
This week:
- Republicans relieved after Tennessee, but they’re not out of the woods yet
- Platner’s candidacy is for real and it’s sticking
- Crockett expected to announce today for Senate
Outlook
Special election: The swearing-in of Rep. Matt Van Epps (R-Tenn.) bolsters the Republican majority in the U.S. House, which now stands at 220 to 213, with two vacancies in Democratic-leaning seats. You can hear the sighs of relief from Speaker Mike Johnson’s office and from RNC headquarters.
If Van Epps had lost to state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D), it would have been a total catastrophe for the Republican Party. But as matters stand, his mere nine-point win in a Nashville-area district that President Trump won last year by 22 points is still a cause for concern.
The win echoes that of past unimpressive special election victories in unfavorable cycles, which, in retrospect, probably portended the coming disasters of 2006, 2008, and 2018.
Sanguine outlier polls and overconfident redistricting-based predictions aside, history and the political environment are already working very hard against Republicans in the 2026 cycle. This is further compounded by the changing nature of the Republican voter demographic. Until recently, Republicans were higher-propensity voters than Democrats. This has changed since 2000, as the party increasingly represents the cultural priorities of a more downscale working-class voter population.
Trump’s job approval is now decidedly underwater, and has been in every poll since mid-October. The right-track-wrong-track question, which upon Trump’s inauguration reached its best point in many years (a mere minus-13 points in the RealClear average), has turned sharply negative in recent weeks.
In short, miracles can and do happen, but it’s a bit much to expect them. Republicans need to assume they have only a limited time to exercise full power in Washington — to pass rescission packages, reconciliation bills, and regular-order appropriations that reflect their priorities.
If this Tennessee special election says anything will need to prepare themselves for the potential loss of the U.S. House by passing whatever they can within the next year.
Senate 2026
Maine: It turns out that Democrats are largely unbothered by his Nazi tattoo and his spicy Reddit posts disparaging rural Mainers.
Yet another poll — albeit another one associated with a group supporting him — shows the oyster-farming self-described “antifa supersoldier” Graham Planter (D) absolutely blowing out Gov. Janet Mills (D) in a Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, 58 to 38 percent.
As we noted a few weeks ago, the establishment Democrat reaction to his candidacy (releasing very old push-polls) hints at a truly desperate situation, suggesting that Platner is a strong favorite to win the primary at this point.
It is also worthy of note that although it surveyed a likely 2026 electorate — not just Democratic primary voters — the poll memo did not share findings for a head-to-head matchup between Platner and Sen. Susan Collins (R) or between Mills and Collins. It is widely believed that Mills would at least have a good shot at winning, but that Platner would lose.
Michigan: Former House Intelligence Chairman Mike Rogers (R), who came very close in losing the state’s other Senate seat last year, leads all Democrats in a new MIRS survey but polls in the low 40s.
Meanwhile, the Democratic primary is hardly a settled question here either. Rep. Haley Stevens (D), another highly touted recruit to run this year who also got a public endorsement from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D), only narrowly leads progressive state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D), 27 to 24 percent. Former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed (D), who ran and lost the primary for governor in 2018, rounds out the field at 16 percent.
Texas: It’s happening. Texas Democrats, on the cusp of a serious opportunity to win their first statewide race this century — and their first U.S. Senate race since Lloyd Bentsen was last re-elected in 1988 — are going through some delicious drama today. And their hopes are likely to be dashed by some last-minute gamesmaship.
The earliest hint of a problem came at around 8 a.m. Eastern Time this morning, when former Rep. Colin Allred (D) abruptly and unceremoniously dropped his bid for U.S. Senate in a post on X. Allred announced he would be running instead in the newly constituted Democrat-leaning 33rd congressional district. Allred had been the best performer in polls against the Republican Senate candidates, and he had been a prolific fundraiser in past races. But he knew when to cut his losses. His problem? The news was already swirling around Washington that Crockett, a bomb-throwing progressive, will be getting into the race later today ahead of the 6 p.m. filing deadline.
There is only one poll available of a Democratic primary involving Crockett. In that survey, from all the way back in September, she jumped out to an instant lead despite not being much in the conversation at that point. And the poll in question contains some assumptions that are by now unrealistic — namely, that former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) would run as well, and of course also that Allred would be in the race. (He was in a distant fourth-place in such a hypothetical contest.) It is unclear how Crockett would perform in a less crowded race or in a head-to-head against state Rep. James Talarico (D), who remains in the race. But it is widely expected that the small-money donors will come in hard on her behalf and she will have virtually unlimited resources to take him down.
Has Crockett ruined things for Democrats by waiting until the last minute before the filing deadline to make her decision? Perhaps, but the fate of her House career was closely linked to the Supreme Court ruling just handed down last week, which guaranteed that her current district will not exist in next year’s election. In that sense, she really had no choice but to wait.
Assuming she enters the primary as rumored, she does so as a heavy favorite, and as an underdog in the general election against any Republican.
As an aside, it is worth noting here that many redistricting decisions are made either to discourage House members from running for statewide office or to encourage them to do so. In this case, Republicans very much wanted Crockett to run statewide, and it may have motivated some of their decisions. In other instances, legislators have done the opposite. For example, in Ohio, Republicans tried to create as comfortable a district as possible for former Rep. (later Senator) Sherrod Brown (D) so that he would not run statewide. It didn’t work, but this is an additional dimension of what goes into creating a state’s congressional districts .
On the Republican side, the situation continues to be volatile. Various polls show Sen. John Cornyn (R) at risk of missing the runoff in this race, and certain to lose said runoff if he does make it, against either Rep. Wesley Hunt (R) or Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).
For example, a poll released last week to the New York Post by J.L. Partners shows Paxton leading with 29 percent, and Hunt tied with Cornyn at 24 percent.
The head-to-head scenarios in this survey, as in all others, suggest that Cornyn is serving his last Senate term and would lose by double digits against either opponent in a runoff. In a runoff between Hunt and Paxton, Hunt is only a slight favorite.
