Dems finally noticing they have a problem.

Dems finally noticing they have a problem.

The Briefing, Vol. III, Issue 29-

This week:

  • Panic time for Hillary
  • All eyes on Biden
  • 2015 governor update

President 2016

“Every time you think, ‘Ok, when has she hit bottom?’ it feels like there’s a new bottom.”

— Chuck Todd

It’s panic time, and a great number of articles and television segments reflecting this were published even after this newsletter was being prepared at the end of last week.

For months, the Democratic Party’s rank and file has stood by Hillary Clinton. Her email scandal created enormous and noticeable public doubt about her honesty, and her poll numbers sagged in critical states for both the primary and the general election. But her supporters remained steadfast.

She was going to be the nominee, and there was little point in saying or speculating otherwise. In fact, any suggestion to the contrary was just plain counterproductive.

This attitude finally seems to be changing as it becomes clear that Clinton is in big trouble. We may be reaching the tipping point at which Democratic voters decide she is not just a scoundrel, but something far less tolerable — a loser.

Take, for example, a few of the most recent polls:

  • The latest Washington Post poll has her at only 46 percent and leading Donald Trump by only three points nationwide.
  • Clinton ties Trump, trails Ben Carson by five points, and trails Jeb Bush by two points nationwide in the latest CNN poll.
  • She trails Trump by five points nationwide in a recent Survey USA poll.
  • She trails Trump by five points and Jeb by 11 points in Iowa in the latest Marist poll.
  • She trails Bush by five and Trump by one in New Hampshire, according to Marist.

These numbers are ominous for Clinton, especially when we add the customary disclaimer about her universal name recognition. As a candidate whom all the voters know already, she has little room to grow. Any result that puts her too far below 50 percent is quite bad, even if she happens to have a small lead. And there is no poll that shows her with a large general election lead.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden fares better in nearly every matchup — although he does not lead in all of  them.

We are now reaching the point where these polls are emboldening the Democratic opposition and challenging the faith of Hillary’s die-hard supporters. It is no coincidence that just as Clinton is looking like a less-than-inspiring general election candidate, both Bernie Sanders and Biden (still just a theoretical candidate) are surging in state and national primary polls. For example:

  • Quinnipiac now has Sanders leading in Iowa by a hair.
  • CBS/YouGov, though it uses a less reliable methodology, now has Sanders up 10 points in Iowa.
  • Sanders continues to lead in New Hampshire by a much wider margin of nine points.
  • As recently as June, Clinton led her Democratic rivals nationally by somewhere between 40 and 60 points. The latest CNN poll has her lead down to 10 points, with both Sanders and Biden exceeding 20 percent support.

The great fear for Democrats at the rank-and-file level is that they could end up stuck with an unelectable nominee. And this cuts more than one way. It may be that their two current choices are both unelectable — Clinton because she is perceived as untrustworthy and dishonest, and Sanders because he is just too far to the left politically.

If Clinton is unelectable, many liberals would rather take their chances with Sanders. And of course, there’s always the third potential option, if Vice President Biden actually decides to run.

Of course, Biden hasn’t jumped in yet, and the clock is ticking. As we have noted previously, the last candidate to wait until October and still succeed was Bill Clinton in 1992, and that happened under a very different set of circumstances.

To most people, Biden’s choice might seem like a no-brainer. The market demand is definitely there  for a formidable, mainstream Democratic candidate, and they are in short supply. With the Democratic field thinned significantly by the 2010 and 2014 elections, Biden is now the only realistic third alternative to those two. Neither former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee nor former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley has managed to gain any traction, and so barring some kind of miracle for one of them, there just aren’t any other choices.

But as Biden makes up his mind, it’s also important to remember that politicians are people, too. Biden’s son died this year. He also knows it will not be pleasant to go up against the Clinton machine, and that a bloody battle against her could leave the eventual winner in a hopeless position for the general election.

Even so, he has every reason to jump in. Republicans seem unable to recover from Trump fever, and Donald Trump is an opponent he could probably defeat. Moreover, even though he currently polls well behind Clinton, her eternally unfolding scandal, which now includes an aide taking the Fifth, offers him a great opportunity to pass her up in support if he ends up deciding to run. As we have noted here previously, he will also enjoy a lot of support from Obama’s donor base. At the very least, it seems safe to say that if he does not get in, he will regret it later.

Governor 2015

Kentucky: There has been a dearth of polling in this race, but surprise Republican nominee Matt Bevin appears to be neck-and-neck with Attorney General Jack Conway. Businessman Bevin’s ability to write himself a big check could prove decisive down the stretch.

Bevin, once a party gadfly, has taken a page from Donald Trump’s playbook in his pitch to voters, framing himself as beholden to no one and willing to listen to anyone. “I will come with a blank sheet of paper, including ideas I have on things,” he said recently while discussing the sort of appointments he’d make as governor. “I’m not a zealot for anything, one way or the other. I’m willing to listen to good pragmatic people.”

And so the rigid ideological formula he used in his failed 2014 challenge to Sen. Mitch McConnell, R, seems to have fallen by the wayside as he tries to convince the state’s business community that he can govern. The one exception to this may work very much to his advantage — he has strongly defended county clerk Kim Davis in her conscientious objection to issuing same-sex marriage licenses. He has attacked Conway for failing to defend the state’s constitutional definition of marriage in court, and he has argued that Davis at least should not have been imprisoned.

Any inroads he can make in the heavily Christian but also heavily Democratic coal regions of eastern Kentucky will work to his favor, as they did to McConnell’s favor last November.

A big question in this race is whether Kentucky has reached the point at which Democrats can no longer count on dominating local politics as they have for so many decades. Just as Oklahoma was a few years ago, Kentucky is an extraordinarily Democratic state, even if it has never been so in presidential races. And just like Oklahoma, that might change soon, and for good.

The primary in the Bevin-Conway race, which took place in May, marked the first time Republicans had ever turned out in greater numbers than Democrats for a gubernatorial primary. In terms of registration, the GOP still lags, but at 39 percent of registered voters is now much closer to parity with the Democrats (53 percent of registered voters) than it ever has been before. In a pool of 3 million voters overall, Republicans have added a net 12,000 new voters since the 2014 election, whereas Democrats’ numbers have fallen by about 1,200.

Louisiana: No surprises here — Sen. David Vitter, R, is on pace to finish in the top two in round one and should have no problem winning the runoff.

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51 COMMENTS

  1. There are some political-family names that are beginning to have what must be characterized as “revulsion quality.” They are “Clinton,” “Kennedy,” and “Bush.” People, obviously, have their personal reasons for feeling the way they do. But there is that old adage, “familiarity breeds contempt.” Sometimes, you just wish they would all go away. “Silence is golden, speech is of silver.”

    • There was ONLY one Kennedy that stood for the American people and that was JFK, he kept us out of a world war with Russia and was in the process of getting rid of the Federal Reserve (which is ran and owned by the ASSHOLE Britts) which was designed to keep the American people in debt FOREVER, and JFK was getting us out of Viet Nam, until HW Bush ambushed him in Dallas, like his father Prescott wanted to overthrow our government, and they were all backed by the Britts and that is what is wrong with American Politics! Semper Fi.

  2. It took the Democrats this long to learn they have a problem with Hilary? My…My they are slow witted. VP Biden has been Obama’s lackey going in 8 years. Enough Already!

  3. Hillary should have listened to Abraham Lincon:
    “You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.”

    What’s worse? A pathological liar or a fool that continually believes & trusts a pathological liar?

    • What do we expect from Democratic politicians like Hillary who came up with th lie of Nobama being born in Kenya?

    • Hillary are not a only with problem, all Dems was create for a last seven years a big problem, poll still manipulate and protect Dems, A President can’t have 46% of approve, is much less, but said a true create panic and Dems won show are in a top, when are in a botton, Dems are Criminal association hate Party.American voters are to tired and big piss. Socialist are a big lair, said help peoples, maybe small groups but not all American. Like in Venezuela, peoples can found food in all stores, Dems simple destroy medium class, only who are in power in that Gov became rich and living to well, and another live to poor and suffer, that are alike was happening in France with a revolution, Kind and another living well and regular peoples suffer and die for no food. Are not one liberal who be will said any true, most never live under socialism or communist system and support what no have any idea what real are.

  4. If you take a step back you can make the comparison of what Obama/Hillary did to
    the Democrat party and what Bush did to the Republicans. With an overdose of war
    weariness and a dash of disaster ala Katrina, Bush made the prospects of a Republican
    successor very dim and with a weak, old RINO running, nearly impossible. Now the
    country is weary of the whole Obama agenda: the economy, the border, the National Debt,
    ObamaCare, the EPA and the rule by executive order, it would see the Presidency is
    ripe for the taking by the GOP. Please let us not follow the Democrats lead and elect the
    worst candidate possible, just because we can. No doubt Trump will wear thin on
    the GOP voters before any real damage can be done. Let’s hope so anyway. We’ve
    had only one debate so far and I cannot wait to see Carly face Trump on the same stage
    and reveal to the American people that the Trump has no cloths!

    • Geoffrey, where did you learn all of this Info.?you really want us 2 listen 2 you and not our ears and eyes and brain, I don,t think so, so get yo ass on the Trump TRAIN and join the party dude

      • So you do not see a similarity in how weak Bush left the GOP with how weak
        the Democrats are now? Please don’t tell me you don’t agree with the laundry
        list of bad policies the Obama administration has heaped on this nation. As
        for Bush, regardless how you feel about his prosecution of the wars, by the end of his term the nation was war weary and very likely to go Democrat. The fact that we nominated McCain made the surrender of the White House almost inevitable. Is any of that inconceivable by your brain? Now, where we disagree
        is what comes next. Do we go with Trump who eventually is going to wear thin on everyone or with one of our other fine candidates. I’m watching the next debate carefully to see who stands out. Needless to say I am not impressed
        with Trump whose vocabulary belies his self pronounced intelligence and
        whose politics is crude and policies mostly as thin as paper. This is not a party
        we’re engaged in, but the future of our country and perhaps the world.

    • Don’t forget that HW Bush(NWO) Killed the LAST REAL President (JFK) that America ever had, and just like his father he got away with trying to overthrow FDR and our government, and start a fascist government which was stopped by Smedly Butler in 1933, these crooked families have never stopped trying to ruin America and the stupid people keep electing them instead of prosecuting them! Semper Fi.

  5. “HILLARY FOR PRISON 2016”

    Send monetary contributions to:

    “The Clinton Global Money Laundering Foundation and Massage Parlor”
    at
    BillieMassageHappyEnding.Org-y

    DONATIONS (may be) TAX DEDUCTIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS

  6. “Ode to Hillary Rotten”
    (Everyday I Vomit a Little in My Mouth)

    As she sinks in the polls
    And stinks from all her holes
    Bernie Sanders streaking up from the back
    Surfing the brown streak left by
    Hillary’s giant incontinent crack
    The Rodham Olde Bagge
    Senses her demise
    To the post of POTUS she will not arise
    And Commie Bernie, too, will be pulled under
    By the huge smelly load
    In his Depends Adult Diaper
    While Hillary Rotten and Billie Bob
    Will do thirty years in the Pen
    For the rape, pillage and plunder
    By the Clinton Global Money Laundering Fund
    And Massage Parlor
    That tore the United States asunder.

  7. In the last 25 years the Democrats have never let Criminal Actions and Deeds hold them back from running a dubious Candidate. On their past performances with both president’s Clinton and above all the highly dubious and still of unknown origins of Barak Hussein Obama (Just call him Abdul); La Clinton is just about a shoe in for their next Presidential Candidate. I recently saw a comment on line that the majority of Republicans ‘suspect’ that Obama’ is a Muslim. My only surprise is that 100% of the U.S. Population does not admit that they know that he is truly a Muslim in all his thoughts and actions.

    • You-all seem 2 leave out the gay issue about him,When he is out of office you will be surprise at what all the Gov,t people knew about him and did nothing, and you-all who voted for all the people that got us where we are today.Everyone is a fu@king crook and you did this 2 yourself.

  8. Clinton is used goods.
    She is long past her best before date.
    She might present a fresh face in some penitentiary.
    Perhaps Obama will move in next door.

  9. Your poll numbers are so far off that it makes your story totally unbelievable. Hillary is trailing everybody because she has zero credibility. Your ideas that she trails Bush by bigger numbers than Trump is total nonsense. Bush is toast just like Killary.

    • Any family that has allegiance with any other country needs KICKED OUT OF OUR COUNTRY, which the Bama, Clinton and Bush families have allegiance to England, that is why we still have the FEDERAL RESERVE stealing money from the hard working people of America. Wake up America and throw England the Hell out of our country once and for ALL! They are the BASTARDS of all wars, and always will be. Semper Fi.

    • Chuckle,chuckle ,chuckle and then I felt my breath fade away…
      9/11/12 .I am just curious where did you find #4. I remember Rush Limbaugh saying on his show what happened to Chris Stevens as soon as the news came from France but to see it
      With the naked eye is beyond something else.

    • If someone would vote for this woman I
      would hope something like this would happen 2 someone you loved and will never see again.You must not like America either.

  10. Of course the hildabeast is in a panic. The server company just tossed her under the bus as they claim they did NOT wipe the server meaning all her deleted emails are available for public view. She has been documented to have over 200+ federal top secret documents on this server and Petraeus was destroyed for just one. Huma is going to be charged with stealing money from the US Government as she was paid for working (she turned in time sheets to the US agency she worked for) while she was on VaCa in Europe for two weeks. And the beasts IT guy is being given immunity.

    Its only a matter of time before one of them turns on the beast.

    • Hillary will throw them under the bus in a hurry. If they are smart they would goand be the fat lady(or man) is singing. Get her before she gets you. Hillary is loyal to no one except herself , bank account and power. She uses that power to put more money in her bank account.

      • that is what Huma is finding out now much to her sorrow. The Hildabeast wont touch her with a 10 foot pole for fear her actions on the federal felony embezzlement charge will somehow rub off on her, and Huma is pizzed off that the Hildabeast is refusing to help her. I mean to be fair its not like the Hildabeast can do much considering it was Huma that made up the false time sheets and turned them in for payment while on a two week Vaca in Europe, claiming that she came into the office every day she was in Europe. Wow what a freaking commute that was! LOLOL!

        SO yea, its either the IT guy or Huma, its a dead heat which will turn on the hildabeast first. I mean my GOD she is losing to Biden in Iowa and he isnt even running yet! She is neck and neck with Trump in all the other states when she used to have a 20 point lead. and her disliked rating is in the high 60 percentage low seventy, which means her likeability is far less then Nixons was when he resigned.

        Now does ANYONE with a brain or even a brain cell think for one second she is going to win the WH next year? If the left thinks this (and the money men are shying away from the beast) then I want some of the drugs they are on to help with my CRPS (constant repetitive pain syndrome…look it up) as if these drugs make them think this way, these drugs can reduce the constant pain from my neurological disease.

        • LOL She is out there like everything is no big deal. Then they try to make her look warm and a heart ha ha. Funny I said yesterday it istime, she will soon be dragging out the baby to look like a wonderful grand mother she is. Then today out come Chelsea on TV telling what a wonderful grand mother she is and how she sings so dumb song to the baby. ha ha Hillary is on the campaign trail so wonder if she has seen the prop kid two or three times even. Every thing she tries blows up in her face.

          • And how is she going to explain this to the kid when its older that its grandmother used it as a political prop in a failed attempt to be President….and better yet why mommy allowed it.

            Bet that is going to be a few years on the headshrinkers couch

          • Better than that, how is she going to explain about her and Bill being Rapist and Perverts? Which both have done yet NEVER been charged with crimes because they are ABOVE the Law Just like the Bush Family! Semper Fi.

          • maybe the Bush family did do something wrong and maybe they didnt. I have yet to see any credible proof that they did and until it is proved I have to dispute what you say. Once its proved then I will agree with you

          • I am waiting for her to try and explain why now she is claiming that women who make a sexual assault case should be listened to…..yet when woman after woman after woman made the same claim against Billy Boy, she called them bimbos and did everything in her power to destroy them. Till the famous blue dress came out with Billys DNA stains all over it and she couldnt explain it away any more.

            Can you say hypocrite?

  11. Before getting too far along with her aide, maybe we should take into consideration a list this individual might be added to. check this out.

  12. Putting another Bush in office would finish the New World Order that his family and England wants for America and her people. Wake up you bunch of MORONS! The Bush family has done just about everything to turn America back over to the LOUSY BRITTS! England needs to take their Federal Reserve and cram it up their Royal asses! LEAVE America alone, I hope the muslims over run your country (England) and you get the punishment you assholes deserve! Semper Fi.

  13. Revel all you want in Granny Pants current conundrum, she’s still the only viable option the Democrats have to retain the WH. Leave it to the Republicans, though, to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by nominating Shrub III or Trump. The Dems WILL coalesce behind her and enough conservatives will sit out like they did in ’12 and allow her to be elected. A Cruz/ Fiorini or Carson/Fiorini would give the Republicans an excellent chance to win and start rolling back the destructive policies put in place by the current administration.

  14. The country will be much better served without Hillary, and less served if one of the other two are elected. What we need a strong no nonsense Republican who will take the country in a different direction than the current incompetent president is taking. No matter which one of the 11 candidates takes the office, it will by far surpass the failed policies this inept administration.

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