The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 43
This week:
Special Edition: Your 2026 Election Guide
Nov. 2, 2026
Outlook
Let’s not sugarcoat it: The expectation for tomorrow’s election is a total wipeout for the Republican Party and a stiff repudiation of the tumultuous opening years of the Trump 2.0 era. Such a blowout might just be in the offing, if the latest polls from around the country are to be believed. And we refrain from sharing gambling and futures market odds — they tend to reflect the sincere opinions of small pools of people who lack good information — but those also reflect the same consensus of a coming disaster for Republicans.
It is perfectly normal for a midterm election to cut strongly against a president’s party. However, recall that in 2018, President Trump suffered just such a repudiation, yet his party actually gained seats in the U.S. Senate. This is part of the effect of having only one-third of Senate seats up for election every two years: If the right seats happen to be up in a given year — as they were in 2018 — the Senate results can defy national trends.
And this is what Republicans are basically hoping will happen tomorrow — that even amid a blue wave of some kind, they can narrowly pull out of the fire several Senate races that are currently very close and preserve their majority.
Republicans widely agree that the U.S. House is lost. We expect them to lose at least 25 House seats and their majority. But they can win the House back if the tides turn their way in 2028.
The Senate, once lost, would be much harder to win back so quickly. And so Republicans have been spending tens of millions and hoping they can keep the Senate and salvage the last two years of Trump’s presidency by giving him power to appoint and confirm officials and judges over Democratic resistance.
It seems like a longshot this time. We expect a Republican loss of four or five seats, but enough races are close that we could easily be wrong. A huge influx of late Republican money has helped keep several races close where they might have otherwise been forced to give up. Republicans are hoping that late party transfers of $62 million will make a difference in key races where the Supreme Court has affirmed they can coordinate with campaigns.
Then again, elections cannot just be bought, as Democrats should have learned (but haven’t) after massively outspending President Trump twice and losing.
What follows below is a chronological guide to Election Night 2026, in the order of final polls closing in each state, with a look at key races to watch.
7 p.m. EST
Indiana: The last polls in Northwest Indiana close at this hour. With no governor or Senate race this year, Indiana is actually having a quiet election. Indianapolis-area Rep. Victoria Spartz (R) is the only member of the congressional delegation facing anything like a competitive race, but she is still favored to win.
Kentucky: At this hour, the last polls will close in Kentucky’s western panhandling. The marquee race should not be especially close — Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) should easily win the race for U.S. Senate over state Rep. Charles Booker (D) to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R). The fight over the Lexington-area House seat he is leaving will be more interesting, with Zach Dembo (D) hoping to defeat Ralph Alvarado (R). This is one of the many races across the country for which there is no good public polling — an early defeat here for Republicans could point to a disastrous night ahead.
Georgia: Republicans had high hopes for the Senate race here, but they chose the wrong year to nominate a weak candidate. Republicans conceded this race weeks if not months ago — the Trump-endorsed Rep. Mike Collins (R) will lose badly to Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). On the other hand, Republicans do have a fighting chance of retaining the govenorship, with businessman Rick Jackson (R) in a tossup race against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).
New Hampshire: Despite a brief glimmer of hope, former Sen. John Sununu (R) is highly unlikely to prevent Rep. Chris Pappas (D) from keeping this open seat in the Democrats’ column. Democrats will also keep both House seats. Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), though popular, is only narrowly favored to win re-election.
South Carolina: This could be an early test as to whether it will be a bad night for Senate Republicans or a truly catastrophic one. It could take some time to count the vote between Sen. Darline Graham Nordone (R) and Annie Andrews (D). Republicans are cooked if Graham doesn’t win here. Republicans should win the open first congressional district — if they don’t, then it is a very bad sign. However, Graham might get some help from the top of the ticket, where Attorney General Alan Wilson (R) should easily defeat state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D).
Vermont: Liberal Republican Gov. Phil Scott will win easily — the more interesting race will be for lieutenant governor. Incumbent John Rodgers (R) faces former Lieutenant Gov. Molly Gray (D). That race got a higher profile after Rodgers brought up in a debate Gray’s family and its poor treatment of immigrant laborers on their farm.
Virginia: Democrats failed in the courts after trying to rig their map, but they might make some important gains anyway. In the Virginia Beach-based second district, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) is in a tough battle to defend her seat against Democratic former Rep. Elaine Luria (D), whom she unseated in 2022.
Also at risk is Rep. Rob Wittman (R), who has been targeted by millions in spending by Democratic groups in a district that stretches between Richmond and the Tidwater region.
7:30 p.m. EST
West Virginia: No competitive races.
Ohio: Vivek Ramaswamy (R) has probably fumbled away his top-ticket race against Amy Acton (D) for governor. And he might also drag down appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) as he tries to stave off former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Polls give Brown the advantage.
There are a few House races to watch as well. Amid accusations of abuse in a messy divorce from the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno (R), Rep. Max Miller (R) chose to stay in the race anyway. It could cost his party the Cleveland-area 7th district. Another race to watch is that of Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) in the 9th district in Toledo and northwest Ohio, who was weakened in redistricting. She is one of the few Democrats to take a mild rhetorical position against transgenderism in her ads, and this has completely outraged the Democratic base.
North Carolina: Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) will easily defeat former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley (D) in what should be the easiest Senate pickup in the cycle.
This is also one of many places where Republican attempts to reddistrict the state in their favor will probably prove ineffective. Democrats are favored to hold Rep. Don Davis’s (D) 1st district and take over the open 11th district in the west of the state.
8 p.m. EST
Alabama: Thanks to redistricting, Republicans have a chance at a pickup in the new Second District in the wiregrass region. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) should also easily win election as governor over former Sen. Doug Jones (D).
Connecticut, Delaware: No competitive races.
Florida: For governor, Rep. Byron Donald (R) is favored to defeat former Rep. and former Republican David Jolly (D). Although that race might be relatively close, Sen. Ashley Moody (R) is expected to defeat socialist state Rep. Angie Nixon (D) by a wider margin.
Florida’s mid-decade redistricting, meanwhile, might be one of the few in the entire country by Republicans that actually works in gaining them a few seats. They hope in particular to topple Rep. Darren Soto (D) in a redrawn 9th district in suburban Orlando, Rep. Kathy Castor (R) in Tampa, and the reconstituted open-seat 22nd district in southwest Florida.
Illinois: No competitive races.
Maine: A flurry of late polls were released over the weekend showing Sen. Susan Collins (R) suddenly tanking in the polls and plunging toward defeat against former Republican and former DSA candidate for governor Troy Jackson. Former House Speaker Hannah Pingree (D) will easily win the governor’s race.
Even so, former Gov. Paul LePage (R) should successfully continue his political comeback by winning Maine’s northern and downeast Second Congressional District, a rare Republican pickup this year that would be unaffected by any redistricting.
Maryland: No competitive races.
Massachusetts: No competitive races.
Mississippi: No competitive races.
Missouri: There has also been late talk of Rep. Ann Wagner (R) facing a stiff challenge in her suburban St. Louis 2nd district.
But the more interesting conversation could be over what happens if Democrats win the House. Missouri’s redistricting scheme was thwarted in a confusing process that may result in some members winning seats in districts drawn differently from the ones where they won nomination. There has been some talk of House Democrats refusing to seat the state’s entire House delegation if they take control of the House, which would at least temporarily take a bite out of Republicans’ numbers in the House.
New Jersey: The one race where Democrats have a shot at a pickup is against former Democrat Jeff Van Drew (R), who is nonetheless favored to hold on.
Oklahoma: Mike Mazzei (R) is favored to defeat Cyndi Munson (D) . Rep. Stephanie Bice (R) should be able to hold her Oklahoma City-area House seat.
Pennsylvania: Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) will easily win re-election, and it will help Democrats in the downballot races as well.
Democrats are hoping to gain as many as four House seats in the Keystone State. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) is in another fight for his political life in his Bucks County-based 1st district. Reps. Ryan McKenzie in the 7th (Lehigh County) and Rob Bresnahan in Wilkes-Barre have even odds at best of keeping their seats. Rep. Scott Perry (R) is running the sort of highly controversial negative ads you would expect from a candidate who is losing. He nearly lost his Harrisburg-based 10th district seat in the strong Trump year of 2024, so it stands to reason that he is probably the most endangered incumbent this time around.
Rhode Island: No competitive races.
Tennessee: Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) should easily win the race for governor. Republicans should also pick up a redrawn 9th U.S. House district that now merely extends far out of the Memphis-area thanks to mid-decade redistricting.
8:30 p.m. EST
Arkansas: Sen. Tom Cotton (R) and the Natural State’s all-Republican congressional delegation should win easily. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) will also easily win re-election.
9 p.m. EST
Arizona: This election should help convince Republicans of something that Trump’s 2024 victory here obscured — they are losing ground in the Grand Canyon State.
Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) is heavily favored to win re-election over Rep. Andy Biggs (R), and Democrats are likely to win at least two U.S. House seats, with the outside chance of taking three.
Colorado: The race for the open governor’s seat will not be competitive, with Democrat Phil Weiser (D) expected to win easily over minister Victor Marx (R). The House seat of Rep. Gabe Evans (R), on the other hand, has been a target for Democrats all along. In fact, given a likely top-ticket blowout, they now sense an opportunity to take over the other three Republican-held seats as well.
Republicans are counting on ballot propositions to turn out their voters.
Proposition 81 would require Colorado law enforcement to notify ICE if a someone without clear legal permission to be in the U.S. is arrested for a violent crime or arrested after acquiring a prior felony conviction.
Proposition 82 would establish a constitutional right to purchase and use natural gas. Proposition 86 would make mid-decade redistricting more difficult.
Proposition 134 would ban male athletes from girls’ and women’s sports in school and collegiate athletics.
Proposition 135 would ban surgeries intended to change the sex or gender of minors.
Iowa: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) is narrowly favored to win this open seat over state Rep. Josh Turek (D). If she does so, it will be despite the top of the ticket, where Zach Lahn (R) is headed to a decisive defeat against State Auditor Rob Sand (D). Democrats are favored to flip two of the state’s four House seats, and the seat Hinson has left open is a tossup.
Kansas: If Sen. Roger Marshall (R) goes down to defeat, it will be almost impossible for Republicans to maintain their Senate majority. That race is a tossup; Republicans are favored to win back the governorship for the first time in eight years, but Cindy Holscher (D) has closed the gap against state Senate President Ty Masterson (R) over the last month by raising the specter of Sam Brownback’s unpopular governorship with moderate Republican voters.
Louisiana: Rep. Julia Letlow (R) should easily win the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Bill Cassidy (R). After teh Supreme Court outlawed one of its racially gerrymandered seats earlier this year, Louisiana drew a new map that should result in a Republican gain of one seat.
Michigan: If Abdul El-Sayed (D) comes up short in his U.S. Senate race, then Rep. Haley Stevens (D), who endorsed and campaigned with his opponent, will have sacrificed her career in Democratic politics for nothing.
Former House Intelligence Chairman Mike Rogers (R) represents Republican’s only serious chance at a Senate pickup. If he wins, Democrats’ path to a Senate majority becomes much narrower. Some wonder whether El-Sayed’s polling looks a bit overly optimistic due to a Bradley Effect, and Stevens’ campaigning with Rogers gives a lot of moderate and Jewish Democrats permission to vote Republican for a change.
Republicans’ late focus has been on his ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and Iranian government figures. A late ad by The Young Turks’ Cenk Uygur, not just criticizing Israel but also containing heavily antisemitic overtones (it refers to Jews as “they/them”), has probably hurt El-Sayed’s chances.
Rep. Tom Barrett (R), in the very competitive 7th district, and Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) in the 4th, are each locked in very close races. Republicans are also defending the open seat left behind by Rep. John James (R), who is the underdog in his bid for governor against Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D).
Minnesota: Former sports journalist Michele Tafoya (R) is expected to come up short against far-left Lieutenant Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D), but don’t underestimate this state’s willingness to buck the trends. Flanagan’s involvement in the fraud-plagued administration of retiring Gov. Tim Walz (D) may yet leave an opening for an upset, and the polls at least suggest it is possible.
Nebraska: Both Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) and Gov. Jim Pillen (R) are expected to survive spirited challenges. Republicans will likely lose the Omaha-area 2nd district left open by the retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R).
New Mexico: No competitive races.
New York: Both Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and Attorney General Leitita James (D) were humiliated in debates against their low-profile opponents. But New York has reached the stage of vote-Blue-no-matter-who where this no longer matters. Both will win re-election going away.
Moderate Rep. Mike Lawler (R) faces a strong challenge from Army veteran Cait Conley (D) in the 17th congressional district in the Hudson Valley. Rep. Nick LaLota (R) is struggling to hang on against challenger Christoper Gallant (D) in the 1st district in eastern Long Island. The race to replace retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) in the 21st District will also be close.
Interestingly, the perennially competitive Staten Island-based 11th district is not really a focus of attention this year, with Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R) heavily favored to win.
North Dakota: No competitive races.
South Dakota: Sen. Mike Rounds (R) will easily win re-election, as should Gov. Larry Rhoden (R).
Texas: The last polls close in West Texas at this hour, and this is where the whole night’s tenor could be decided. If Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) somehow pulls it out, then Republicans will breathe easier. If Texas picks James Talarico (D) as its next U.S. Senator, then Republican hopes of keeping the U.S. Senate will be dashed on the spot.
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is favored to win re-election over Gina Hinojosa (D), but the race is a lot closer than what Republicans were bargaining for.
Meanwhile, Republicans’ attempt to shift multiple U.S. House seats in their direction through mid-decade redistricting will yield mixed results, in large part because they will not perform as well as they had hoped with Hispanic voters. They are at least expected to pick up the redrawn Houston-area 9th district and Dallas-area 32nd district. But Brandon Herrera (R) is in a tossup race to keep the West Texas 23rd district in Republican hands after his surprising primary victory over a scandal-tained Republican incumbent. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R) is fighting to defend the heavily Hispanic 15th district, and the newly drawn 35th District outside Austin is considered a tossup.
Wisconsin: Rep. Tom Tiffany (R) is trying to bring Republican rule back to Madison after eight years of Gov. Tony Evers (D) as governor, but he is the underdog against Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D). Democrats hope to seize control of two House seats in Wisconsin — the perennially competitive 3rd district seat of Derrick Van Orden (R) and the 1st district seat of Bryan Steil (R).
Wyoming: No competitive races.
10 p.m. EST
Montana: Kurt Alme (R) should easily win the U.S. Senate race to replace the retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R). Democrats tried the sneaky replace-your-candidiate-with-an-independent strategy here, but local Democrats refused to accept Seth Bodnar (I) as their substitute candidate. Democrats are also hoping to take advantage of the favorable environment to seize Montana’s open 1st district, the more competitive of the two in the state.
Nevada: Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) is locked in a toss-up race against his challenger, Attorney General Aaron Ford (D). Meanwhile, the race in the state’s most Republican district — the open 2nd congressional district in the north of the state, being left behind by the retiring Rep. Mark Amodei (R) — is much closer than any Republican would like.
Utah: Thanks to a court ruling, Democrats managed to carve out a House seat in the Salt Lake area that they probably can’t lose. Voters will also consider Constitutional Amendment B, which would raise the threshold for raising taxes via ballot initiative.
11 p.m. EST
Idaho: The last polls in Northern Idaho close at this hour, but most of the results should already be clear by that point. Sen. Jim Risch (R) and Gov. Brad Little (R) should have easily won re-election against fake independent candidates who are really Democrats. All other statewide and congressional Republicans should easily win.
Ballot measures will provide the most interesting results of the night in the Gem State. Proposition One, a statutory measure to repeal all of the state’s abortion laws, should fail narrowly — the pro-life movement’s first true referendum victory in the states since the overturn of the Roe v. Wade abortion decision.
Another measure to watch is HJR 4, which would bar any further ballot measures on legalizing marijuna. This is important because Idaho is the last state where marijuana use remains completely illegal for all purposes. Technically, the proposed amendment would reserve solely to the state legislature the right to regulate marijuana and all other drugs, as it is already reserved for alcohol.
Another constitutional measure, HJR 6, would make English Idaho’s official language.
Oregon: Republicans get their hopes up about winning a statewide race in Oregon every now and then, in spite of everything. As unpopular as Gov. Tina Kotek (D) is, state Sen. Christine Drazan (R) is trying to sail against a hurricane-force wind in her bid to become the state’s first Republican to win a governor election since 1982. Drazan seemed to be opening up a lead over the summer, and she may yet have a chance, but don’t bet on it.
Washington: The closest to a competitive federal races in the Evergreen State, Washington voters will decide three ballot measures that may say a lot about its future.
Initiative 1 would uphold parental rights in schools and sex-ed curriculum. Initiative 638 would bar male students from participating in girl’s school sports. Initiative 645 would repeal the income tax on high earners that Democrats passed during the last legislative session.
12 a.m. EST
Hawaii: No competitive races.
1 a.m. EST
Alaska: In the last few days, this race has become tougher both politically and legally for Democrats. Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) and national Democrats were exposed for their direct involvement in a scheme to recruit a candidate for the sole purpose of confusing and thus disenfranchising the state’s voters. Republicans need to defeat Peltola in what is currently a very close, rather than count on civil lawsuits or even criminal indictments to change the outcome. That is because Republicans also appear likely to lose control of the open governorship, in which case any appointment to a vacant Senate seat will not help them.
For Alaska’s at-large House seat, Rep. Nick Begich (R) is expected to win re-election handily, although polls are generally hard to rely on in Alaska given its four-candidate ranked-choice voting system.
Indefinite
California: Although the polls technically close at 11 p.m. Eastern, voting goes on in California as long as it takes postmarked ballots to return. So there won’t be any official California results for several days.
Former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra (D) should easily win election as governor. Republicans will also lose multiple House seats due to redistricting engineered by Democrats under Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who unofficially becomes a presidential candidate as of Tuesday night.
The more relevant results might be on ballot measures. Proposition 39 would require ID to vote in California. Proposition 40 would retroactively impose a 5 percent asset tax on billionaires who lived in the state as of Jan. 1, 2026. Proposition 42 would ban such a tax — in fact, it will override Proposition 40 if it gets more votes.
