The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 40
Oct. 12, 2026
This week:
- Senate control: The worst case scenario for Republicans
- What’s the matter with Kansas?
- Even after Talarico vanishes, Paxton is struggling just to keep it close
Senate 2026
Democrats are very likely to take over the House in the Nov. 3 election, but again, the Senate is where all the action is in 2026. President Trump’s legacy will hang largely on whether Republicans, who currently hold 53 of 100 U.S. Senate seats, manage to minimize their losses — ideally keeping them to three net seats lost or fewer, but at least avoiding the worst scenarios.
In the worst case, if they were to lose every seat where the race currently seems close in the polls, Republicans would lose eight Senate seats right now: Kansas and South Carolina, plus all of the expected close races where they are defending — Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and (less close) North Carolina. This would give Democrats an effective 54-seat Senate majority going into 2028.
A more likely bad-case scenario would involve a net loss of six seats.
Consider the context here: Republicans are unlikely to gain more than four Senate seats in 2028 even in the most optimistic case, where they pick seats up in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia. This means that next month’s outcome could determine whether a hypothetical Democratic winning candidate for president in 2028 has the ability to abolish the filibuster, pack the Supreme Court, and create new states to rig the Senate for permanent Democratic control — abuses of power that some Democrats and leftists are already openly discussing.
To be sure, that is not a guaranteed outcome. But every Senate seat preserved now (or gained, if Republicans are able to win the close race in Michigan) makes that outcome at least slightly less likely.
Alaska: After a news story showing former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) mistreating staff and texting that she wished someone would die in a botched abortion, former staff have now also claimed she used the n-word “multiple times” in 2024 and used anti-gay slurs. Although it leaves a very ugly impression, this story will probably not bother the woke crowd that it is intended to offend.
Between the closeness of the polling and the confusing ranked-choice system that liberals managed to set up in Alaska, this race will take at least a week to decide.
Current rating: Tossup.
Florida: St. Pete Polls, which has been the outlier throughout this campaign season, is the only poll suggesting the race between Sen. Ashley Moody (R) and socialist Angie Nixon (D) is closer than a five-point race in Moody’s favor. Current rating: Likely Republican Retention.
Iowa: With the Republican gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn (R) lagging badly at the top of the ticket, U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) is in a much closer fight than expected. Still, she is outperforming Lahn in every poll and very narrowly leading her opponent, state Rep. Josh Turek (D), in most of them.
Current rating: Leaning Republican Retention.
Kansas: Sen. Roger Marshall (R) may yet survive his scare, but he seems to be doing everything he can to make his odds worse. First came the controversy over his medical practice suing hundreds of patients for non-payment — standard practice, but it looked bad. His campaign was last seen paying an overdue bakery bill after the story went viral.
His opponent, minister Adam Hamilton (D), has endorsements from two moderate former Republican governors. It may seem less impressive because one of them has endorsed a Democrat before — but then again, the Democrat he endorsed won and is currently Kansas’s governor.
Current rating: Leaning Republican Retention.
Ohio: Sen. Jon Husted (R) is running against former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) as if Brown were the incumbent. The race has been close all along, and it is complicated by the failure of Vivek Ramaswamy (R) to open up a lead in the governor race. Still, this one is a true tossup. The most recent poll is the only one showing Husted with a lead, albeit a statistically insignificant one. A presidential and vice presidential visit are coming soon to prop up the ticket.
Current rating: Tossup.
Texas: State Rep. James Talarico (D) suddenly disappeared from the campaign trail for 12 days, and from all but virtual appearances for nine days, because of what he has said was just a “nasty case of the flu.”
This could be true, but his vanishing act has given rise to quite a few conspiracy theories about what he was actually doing. Even the nastiest flu does not seem like an adequate excuse for an otherwise healthy 37-year-old to stay off the campaign trail for nearly two weeks, giving only a virtual appearance on Sept. 30, at the time he claimed to be most contagious.
Such a sudden absence from the campaign trail, coming at a key point in his Senate race against Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), could evince extreme confidence on his campaign’s part that Talarico will win if he can just avoid making any further public mistakes — or alternatively, a belief that he is making too many mistakes and needs to go into hiding to win. But neither of those seems to be the case in this race, a genuine tossup at this point. Still, there is a story behind his 12-day hiatus that isn’t being told.
That this race is competitive at all, however, is clearly a function of Paxton’s inadequacy as a candidate. Disregarding Talarico’s disappearing act, Paxton has not led in a single poll since August, and he consistently lags behind Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in polls where both of their candidacies are tested with the same population samples. Paxton trails in all polls, including those done by Rpeublican pollsters like Trafalgar. Outside groups are spending heavily on television during football games to highlight Talarico’s stance on parental rights and transgender procedures on children.
The recent and historic polling misses in favor of Democrats, which have been especially bad in Texas, are the only reason at this point to continue thinking Paxton can win.
Current rating: Tossup.
