The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 37
Sep. 21, 2026
This Week:
- MAGA organizations start spending
- Republicans have the money to defend — they need a clear message
- Paxton trailing in nine of the last ten polls
Outlook
It is no surprise that things generally don’t look good for Senate Republicans right now. Last week’s news did contain some bright spots — possible pickup opportunities for Republicans in New Hampshire and (a longshot) Minnesota. The Republican Senate nominee in Iowa is also running well, and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) may finally be breaking through into the lead in her race.
But polls also point to Republicans trailing in key races in Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, and Alaska. In this political environment, the Republican nominee in Michigan is also failing to establish a lead in a race that seems like a promising pickup opportunity against a badly flawed socialist candidate.
So what to do? Trump-world seems to recognize that the president’s legacy is at stake — not later, but now. And so Trump-aligned groups are opening the spigot and reserving large amounts of airtime to finish all the closest races strongly.
As we have noted previously, the stakes are very high. Aside from a brief lame-duck period at the end of his first term, President Trump has never had to govern with a Democrat majority in the U.S. Senate. Despite some major political successes in his second term, loss of the Senate could make the next two years his worst yet, as he and Republicans would lose all leverage over the legislative agenda, nominations, and the appropriations process. At least one impeachment trial would also be a foregone conclusion.
MAGA, Inc. to the rescue: Groups aligned with MAGA, Inc. have committed about $138 million to congressional races. The biggest commitment, of $99 million, comes from No Going Back, which is investing specifically in Senate races, and MAGA, Inc. itself, which is investing another $11 million. The Senate races in Michigan, Texas, Ohio and New Hampshire are the top targets, but the money will also be flowing to Alaska.
Also helping Republicans is the recent Supreme Court decision that says their party committees (which are better funded than their Democratic counterparts) are entitled to the same broadcast discount rates as candidates.
Here’s the thing: Money doesn’t just buy elections — the view that it does is both annoying and simplistic. Both of Trump’s presidential victories prove the point. He was outspent by both Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris by ratios of two to one.
The lesson is that, in the right environment, or (in the case of 2016) even in a suboptimal environment, a winning message cuts through the noise.
The hope this year is that a few substantial and well-placed investments can make that happen and cause some of these races to break late in the right direction.
Message problems and substance problems: Two problems: Republican messaging has not exactly been consistent. Moreover, conditions are not all worthy of bragging about right now.
The price of gas in particular is very high right now. The price of diesel especially, which affects the price of both trucking and agriculture, is driving up the cost of everything else. The Iran War, the main driver behind high oil prices, is the red-handed reason for the problem. The war is dragging out inconveniently into the fall and will not end this year, so there is no quick military solution to the political problems Trump is facing.
To finish strong in November, Republicans should probably be laser-focused on radical improvements in public safety (they have been discussing a bit more lately), a crackdown on fraud against the taxpayer that is getting results and savings, and record-high real wages and low unemployment.
Instead of merely calling Democrats communists, Republicans should be contrasting these specific issues with Democrats’ alternative vision: defanging or defunding police, raising taxes on wage-earners and job-creators and going back to funneling public money to unaccountable non-profit organizations.
Senate 2026
Minnesota: Former sports broadcaster and podcaster Michele Tafoya (R) has definitely put this race into contention, at least. The latest poll by local news media shows a tie between her and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) at 42 percent, which represents substantial movement in Tafoya’s direction since Flanagan won the Democratic primary. Still, this race is not yet on the list of races receiving money from Trump-associated organizations.
Nebraska: It is interesting to see a more diligent and better-resourced Republican campaign take Dan Osborn (I) deadly seriously and go after him hard.
In 2024, in his narrow miss against Sen. Deb Fischer (R), Osborn mostly skated until he had already become a grave threat. This time around, Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) is really taking nothing for granted and dropping nukes designed not only to defeat Osborn but to end his faux-independent political career.
Osborn is part of a wider Democratic strategy of running as an independent candidate to shake the party’s brand in states where the label is toxic — something Democrats are also doing in Montana and Idaho this year. The strategy has not produced any victories, but in a few instances it has forced Republicans to spend a lot of resources where they wouldn’t otherwise.
During this year’s campaign, Osborn has been dogged by relentless opposition research drops. The latest came last week with a recording of him savagely disparaging rural Nebraskans, referencing “Billy Bob in f—ing Red Cloud, Nebraska, who lives next to the f—ing Trump store as you pull into town is waving the Trump flag.”
Red Cloud is an actual southern Nebraska town with about 1,000 residents.
“All he knows is he’s on the winning team,” Osborn went on. Trump, he added, “has been so effective at taking Billy Bob, his wife Mary Jane or Mary Jo, telling them, look we’re winning, look we’re winning, you’re on the winning team and that’s all they care about because their lives probably suck so f—.”
New Hampshire: The Cook Political Report has shifted its rating of the race betwen former Sen. John Sununu (R) and Rep. Chris Pappas (D) in Republicans’ favor just as Trump-aligned organizations are throwing nearly $10 million to this race. That may seem like a lot for a small state, but New Hampshire is expensive thanks to the Boston media market.
Texas: Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) trails state Rep. James Talarico (D) in nine of the last ten polls released. If there is any consolation for Republicans, it is that polling in Texas tends to underestimate them generally and that polling in this race is still close. But note that many of the same polls have Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading his opponent even as Paxton trails. This race is really the poster-child for the new Trump ad push, which includes a $15 million commitment here.
