The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 42
Oct. 20, 2025
This week:
- Shutdown: Time may not be on Democrats’ side
- Miyares tries to drive a wedge into the Democrat ticket
- Iowa Senate candidate quits amid school scandal
Outlook
Shutdown blame-game: Three weeks into the government shutdown, the public still mostly blames Republicans. However, that perception is gradually shifting. The gap between those blaming Democrats and Republicans was 11 points the week before last in Democrats’ favor, according to the YouGov/Economist poll. As of last week, it had shrunk to just six points. In short, time may not be on Democrats’ side here. Ask the question a bit differently, allowing for shared blame, and you get a similar sort of answer: According to a survey from the Associated Press, 58 percent blame Trump and Republicans, whereas 54 percent blame Democrats.
So Democrats are not losing ground politically over this just yet, but they are also not winning hearts and minds by dragging it out. They have the luxury to do so for now only because most of the practical downsides of the shutdown have yet to make themselves felt — and that won’t last if the shutdown does.
“Leverage” If you were visiting from Mars, the most obvious giveaway that Democrats are to blame for the shutdown would be the way so many of them keep talking about it as “leverage” to negotiate for other items. Another clue would be that the subject of the negotiation is a health care provision that wouldn’t take effect until January, long after the proposed continuing resolution will have expired.
But another telltale sign would be that the Democrat-friendly legacy media are going relatively light on the story. Ordinarily, we would be hearing a whole bunch of sob-stories about various affected constituencies — veterans whose benefits are cut off, food-stamp recipients whose EBT cards suddenly stop working, mothers receiving WIC payments, et cetera. Somehow, those stories aren’t being told this time around.
These and other services, unlike Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, depend on annual congressional appropriations and are therefore legitimately at risk of being interrupted by the shutdown. So are government paychecks, both for the essential workers who remain on the job and the non-essential ones sitting at home until Congress passes a new appropriations bill.
Meanwhile, it will likely be decided in court whether the lack of a congressional appropriation legally entitles the administration to impose reductions in force to fire thousands of government workers, as it has already done this month.
Off-ramps: How does Congress get things back on track? Considering the above, it might eventually be a question of how much suffering Democrats are willing to bear. There are several milestones coming that could ratchet up the pain for one party or ght other.
Within days, many federal employees, including essential workers who are still on the job, will miss their first full paycheck. Government employees, many of whom expect Democrats to represent their interests, are unlikely to accept with equanimity a long-term shutdown over the Christmas holiday at the hands of their purported political allies.
One thing was certain from the beginning: There was no chance at all that Democrats would agree to any resolution of the shutdown before Saturday’s “No Kings” rallies, needlessly antagonizing and further demoralizing their base. The entire point of the shutdown is to keep the Left at bay — to avoid another enraged backlash like the one that Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) suffered in March when he opted not to shut the government down for understandable and prudential reasons.
But what happens now? How can Democrats be convinced to deescalate — or, more appropriately, how can they be allowed to save face so that they can afford to deescalate?
It is still possible that a grand bargain will be reached — and to that end, Senate Republican Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is offering an up-or-down vote on the Obamacare subsidies after the government reopens through Thanksgiving.
But this is probably not the most plausible mechanism for breaking the deadlock. That might be for a sufficient number of Democrats, induced by an offer of political concessions or pork, to defect and vote for cloture — probably with Schumer’s tacit blessing.
To date, Sens. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) have consistently voted with Republicans on this question, whereas Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Angus King (I-Maine) have straddled the fence, with each voting at least once for and against reopening the government through late November. Because Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is a no for unrelated reasons, that makes 55 or 56 “yes-curious” votes so far.
If he sees it as in his best interests to resolve the question without a months-long shutdown, Thune will likely try to lure Democrats who are retiring and so no longer fear their base, such as Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), and perhaps the ones who face potentially difficult re-election races this cycle, like endangered incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.).
Then again, Republicans may not feel pressure to reopen the government until they extract a political price from Democrats. One thing Trump has done that takes the pressure off the Senate to find a solution quickly is his move (whose legality will surely be contested) to pay the military from existing appropriated funds without a new appropriation.
Governor 2025
New Jersey: This race may be close, but the Democrat, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D), leads in every survey. The only way Jack Ciattarelli (R) pulls off the upset is by outperforming all the polls. That is something he actually did, under arguably less favorable circumstances, in 2021, when he came within three points of ousting incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D).
Virginia: A new Trafalgar/Insider Advantage poll from last week suggests a three-point race. That is still in Democrats’ favor, but it points to something much closer than the double-digit affair that had been running here all summer.
This is entirely down to the scandal over text messages sent by attorney general nominee Jay Jones (D), who not only advocaed killing a political opponent and his small children in order to force him and other Republicans to change their beliefs, but also avidly and vigorously defended his attitude at the time.
The issue dogged Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger (D) in her debate with Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, and Republicans are figuring out how to use it in more than one way.
While Earle-Sears uses it to tar Spanberger for her refusal to un-endorse Jones, Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) is using Spanberger’s response to the question in a new ad to illustrate that Spanberger doesn’t really support Jones and her supporters should feel no obligation to vote for him. Jones’s only reply has been “Trump, Trump, Trump.” The same poll that has Earle-Sears trailing by three has Miyares leading by five, 49.5 percent to 44.6 percent..
Senate 2026
Iowa: You may have heard about the massive scandal of Des Moines hiring an illegal alien with a criminal conviction as its school superintendent. In the wake of that, school board chairwoman Jackie Norris (D) is officially ending her bid for the open U.S. Senate seat of retiring two-term Sen. Joni Ernst (R). Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) is still the favorite next fall, with the remaining Democratic field comprising mostly obscure state legislators.
Massachusetts: We might just have an interesting fight within the Democratic Party, within one of its safest states, about one of the issues that is harming it the most.
Rep. Seth Moulton (D), who has previously voiced a need for Democrats to turn the page on transgenderism, is challenging Sen. Ed Markey (D) in a Senate primary. Markey’s response has been to double down — as Semafor’s Dave Weigel pointed out, this included an appearance at a “No Kings” rally over the weekend in which he literally wrapped himself in a pink and blue transgender flag.
So far, there have been few public indications of any significant number of mainstream Democratic politicians being willing to buck their party’s fringe on this issue — indeed, Moulton is one of very few to say anything along these lines, and he has been sparing with his comments since.
Maine: Gov. Jane Mills (D) and the Democratic establishment must be pleased, if they are not actually involved. CNN just came up with the unfortunate deleted social media posts (Reddit, of course) of leftist Graham Platner (D), and they are not pretty. In fairness, the suboptimal timing and the news source (the K-file) suggest it’s as least as likely that this was a journalistic find rather than an oppo dump.
Platner, a veteran and the harbormaster in Sullivan, has up to now gained a high profile and praise from several other sitting U.S. senators for his feisty demeanor.
In his old and some relatively recent deleted posts, he made racist comments about how black people don’t tip; wrote that all white, rural people are “stupid” and “racist;” advocated political violence using guns; called himself a “communist” and a “socialist;” disparaged the police as “bastards”; and (earlier) downplayed the problem of sexual assault in the military. There’s something there for almost everyone to hate, but at least some of these will be a problem for a lot of Democratic primary voters.
New Hampshire: Trailing just 45 to 43 percent, former Sen. John Sununu (R) puts up significantly better numbers against likely Democratic nominee Rep. Chris Pappas (D) than former Sen. Scott Brown (R), the other Republican mentioned for the race, who trails by ten points in the latest survey by co/efficient. Sununu, who lost his seat in 2008 to the now-retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), has promised an announcement by the end of October. With Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) running for re-election, he is probably the strongest candidate Granite State Republicans can hope for, now that former Gov. Chris Sununu (his brother) has taken himself out of consideration.
Sununu has favorable ratings (a +9 percentage point spread) comparable to those of Pappas (+11) and is of course from a well known Republican political dynasty in the state going back to his father, who first held elected office in the Nixon era. Sununu’s entry would at least make the race a real contest and give Democrats problems as they try to piece together the four-seat gain they would need for a Senate majority.
