The Briefing, Vol. XII, Issue 52
Note: The Briefing will be taking next week off in observance of the Christmas holiday. We will see you next year!
December 23, 2024
This week:
- An early showdown
- Electoral College adjustments for 2030, revisited
- Lara Trump no longer interested in Florida’s Senate seat
Outlook
Spending battle: There are some important lessons to be taken from last week’s mad scramble to prevent a government shutdown just before Christmas.
- First, Joe Biden is effectively no longer in office. Trump 2.0 started weeks ago.
Yes, technically Biden is still alive and president, and he even signed the continuing resolution that passed, but at no point was he relevant to the process. No one sought his opinion on the bill. No one cared or cares. Just as world leaders are forming a queue at Mar a Lago to meet the president and not at the Biden White House, so are members of Congress on both sides of the aisle taking their cues from Trump and not Biden. Last week’s expose in the Wall Street Journal about Biden’s obvious lack of mental acuity, and about how his aides insulated him while running the country, lends additional perspective to his relevance or lack thereof. - Second, Elon Musk’s role in forcing the removal of more than a thousand pages of earmarked provisions from what had become a “Christmas tree” bill was fascinating.
The billionaire’s influence over Republican politics — and even over President-elect Donald Trump himself — is so sudden and so massive that it cannot be overstated. When Democrats call him “President Musk,” they are of course hilariously disrespecting Biden, who is actually still president. But this rather obvious attempt to get on Trump’s nerves and drive a wedge between the two men contains a profound truth. - Third, in some ways, Musk is the Right’s perfect answer to the Left’s professed reliance on expertise and technocracy.
As someone with a long history of innovating and finding better ways to do things in the private sector, Musk brings to Trump 2.0 a certain gravity and experience that Trump lacked the first time around, much to his own detriment. And Musk is unlike the “experts” often cited because rather than mouthing popular orthodoxies as a form of virtue signaling, he is known for thinking outside the box and saying things that are even beyond the bounds of “acceptable” discourse. - Fourth, and as a counterpoint, Musk’s presence is one of many signs pointing to a less ideologically conservative Republican Party going forward. Trump 2.0 will accomplish many conservative goals, but it will also jettison many conservative orthodoxies in the name of pragmatism.
In last week’s specific battle, the die-hards had Musk’s help as they pulled Trump away from the original spending bill (and especially its debt-limit suspension), which the president-elect originally supported. (Trump ultimately went along but was reportedly unhappy that he will have to deal with a potential debt limit increase within the first month of taking office, and with a smaller Republican House majority.) In some future battles, the Right will be at odds with both Musk and Trump. Conservatives should expect to lose a lot of these intramural battles. - This was not an unqualified victory for conservatives, who would have preferred three separate votes on the continuing resolution, the debt ceiling suspension, and aid to hurricane victims. But it was a relative victory. And that was possible only because of the mainstream media’s inability to set the narrative behind this struggle. Democrats misleadingly tried to frame this as a vote against pediatric cancer research, and in years past they might have gotten away with it. But social media users quickly produced a community note showing that the provision in question had already passed the House on its own in March and could be run through the Senate any time as a stand-alone bill under unanimous consent — as it ultimately was, perhaps in part thanks to X users.
- There could be a bit of a mess on January 3, when the House will meet to organize itself, pass a rules package, and elect a Speaker. With Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) already opposing Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), and Johnson’s eventual reliance on Democrats to pass the continuing resolution on Friday, the latter will have little room for error in the new Congress given the diminished Republican majority.
Reapportionment: Last week, we looked at last year’s Census projections and what they would mean for 2030 and beyond. This year’s projections, although slightly less dramatic than the ones from 2023, still bode ill for Democrats. The only questions is one of degree: How much more difficult it will be for them to win the White House starting in the presidential election year of 2032?
This year’s projections are a bit less dramatic. Above is the American Redistricting Project’s map, coming from a center-right organization. Below is the leftist Brennan Center’s map.
Both of these projections have Texas and Florida gaining four seats (and four electoral votes) each. They vary on just how many seats California and New York will lose, and also on whether North Carolina will gain. They both give fewer new seats to Southern states than last year’s projections, which would have also given Tennessee, South Carolina, and Georgia new seats. Still, it is clear that the Census count will be very close. Several states will be on the bubble for gaining or losing House seats — including a possible second-seat loss for Illinois and a possible fifth-seat gain for Texas.
The shift of between eight and ten seats (and electoral votes) from reliably Blue states (Oregon, California, Rhode Island, Illinois, New York) to reliably Red states that Trump won by more than ten points (Florida, Texas, Idaho and Utah) will still be extremely harmful to Democrats’ chances next decade, both in terms of winning the presidency and the House.
These projections suggest that Republicans will be able to win the presidency just using a “Sun Belt” strategy, without worrying about the highly competitive “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
In terms of House seats, much will depend on the 2030 Midterm election, which will elect the legislatures that draw the new lines. Still, with states like California and Illinois gerrymandered to about as well as they can be for Democrats, it is likely they will have to sacrifice some of their own members.
Statewide 2025
Wisconsin: The most important race of the new year might just be the state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin. Hanging in the balance is Act 10, the law signed by Gov. Scott Walker (R) in 2011 which saved the state from the iron grip of its public-sector unions. Act 10 has saved $31 billion dollars for Wisconsin’s state, county and municipal governments over the last 14 years and became so popular that even Gov. Tony Evers (D) refused to campaign against it or promise its repeal.
The court’s new liberal majority, eager to re-empower the public sector unions, wants to use a pending court case to strike down Act 10 on very dodgy groupns. Former state Attorney General Brad Schimel (R) is the conservative in the race to replace a retiring liberal. Democrats will be backing Dane County (Madison) Judge Susan Crawford. Election Day is April 1.
Governor 2025
New Jersey: This could be a very interesting race, considering how close the 2024 election was in the Garden State. Trump lost New Jersey by six points; in 2021, former Assemblyman Jack Ciatarelli (R) lost by three.
This time around, with Gov. Phil Murphy (D) term-limited, Ciatarelli will be in the mix again. So will a number of other Republican hopefuls, including state Sen. Jon Bramnick and two broadcasters — Mike Crispi and Bill Spadea.
The Democratic side will include two U.S. House members (John Gottheimer and Michelle Sherrill), two big city mayors, a former state Senate president and a teachers union president.
The primary election will be held in June.
Virginia: So far, this one is shaping up early on as a contest between Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D). Sears might face an on-paper nominating contest, but with the support of Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), Sears should easily lock up the GOP nomination. There is only an outside chance that Spanberger will have to face Rep. Bobby Scott (D) in a primary.
Senate 2026
Florida: First daughter-in-law Lara Trump has reportedly removed herself from consideration to be appointed to the Florida Senate seat being vacated by Marco Rubio, Trump’s new designee for secretary of State. This leaves Gov. Ron DeSantis with a much more placid environment to choose either a long-term successor to Rubio (probably Attorney General Ashley Moody) or a placeholder (probably his own chief of staff, James Uthmeier). The latter would presumably give way to DeSantis himself in the special election that would be held in 2026, should he decide he wants to continue his political career in that manner.
