The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 1
Jan. 6, 2025
Happy New Year!
This week:
- Trump intervenes and gets his Speaker candidate
- Popularity at new heights
- A first look at some key governor’s races
Outlook
Speaker’s race: Once President-elect Donald Trump had weighed in, no one else had a chance. And it’s a sign of what’s going to be different in Trump 2.0.
Although last week’s vote for Speaker of the House does not represent the first time Trump has imposed his will upon reluctant Republicans, this is the first time he has done so from such a towering perch — from a position of prestige not only within the Republican Party but also among the national electorate as a whole.
The outcome in this instance was that Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) was easily re-elected Speaker of the House on the first ballot. But things didn’t necessarily have to turn out that way. In fact, Democratic politicians and pundits in the run-up to the vote were predicting an outcome that would show how weak Trump was.
Instead, Trump got on the phone and convinced a couple of Republican House members who had been threatening to vote against Johnson, Trump’s endorsee.
Johnson had only a narrow path, thanks to his party’s narrow House majority. Assuming all Democrats would vote against him, Johnson could afford to lose no more than one House Republican in order to become Speaker. And there would be no convincing of Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who was already a hard “no” on Johnson well before the vote.
This meant that Trump would have to convince a few Republicans that the success of his second presidency rode on the smooth start that a quick first-ballot Johnson win would deliver. As he so often is among Republicans, Trump was convincing. During the first ballot, he intervened with Reps. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Keith Self (R-Texas) and convinced them to change their votes. And that was all it took.
Trump-popularity: With his accession fast approaching, Trump has now reached a new height of popularity by two different metrics. First, he has net-positive or net-zero favorable ratings in 12 of the 20 polls taken since the election. This is inconceivable for a man who has historically been one of the most controversial and polarizing figures in American politics in the Twenty-First Century.
Second, a majority (in some polls a large majority) of voters approve of the Trump 2.0 transition, by margins ranging from 7 to 18 percentage points, even as the media and Democrats have tried unsuccessfully to frame it as a restoration of the chaos of early Trump 1.0. It turns out that voters and survey respondents are actually not concerned that Trump isn’t using State Department translators (who may leak his conversations with foreign leaders) and for a time wasn’t trusting the FBI to vet his nominees. They are more concerned that Trump has a plan is in place to carry out his promises — including economic reforms, mass deportations of criminal aliens, large increases in oil and gas production on federal lands, strategic cuts to government waste envisioned by unofficial presidential advisor Elon Musk — and will likely turn against him if he fails to deliver.
Governor 2025
Virginia: The Old Dominion is facing a possible spoiler in its governor’s race — although it isn’t immediately obvious whose run would be spoiled.
Conservative Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) is the easy frontrunner for the GOP nomination and hopes to become the first black female governor in U.S. history. The good money says she will face Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) on the Democratic side.
However, former moderate Republican Rep. Denver Riggleman has formed an exploratory committee to run statewide as an independent. He has not specified which office he wants to run for, and he has spoken about himself as possibly running for lieutenant governor rather than governor.
Were Riggleman to run for governor instead, he might be thought of as a spoiler against Sears. However, it is not immediately clear that anyone otherwise planning to vote Republican would turn away from Sears to vote for Riggleman, who endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris in the recent presidential election. Indeed, with incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) solidly behind Sears, Riggleman could just as well give Republican moderates and “never-Trump” types an excuse not to vote for Spanberger. But so far, there is no public data offering evidence one way or the other.
Governor 2026
Headed into this year’s midterm, we take a look this week at some potentially competitive governor’s races that will be up next November.
Arizona: Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) is highly likely to seek re-election. With Kari Lake absorbed in her confirmation process as Trump’s new director of Voice of America, Arizona Republicans will have the opportunity to move on into a new era.
Possible Republican candidates include two establishment figures from the past — former state Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson, whom Lake defeated in the 2022 primary, and state Treasurer Kimberly Yee. A more conservative possibility might be former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, a 2024 also-ran for U.S. Senate who was simply unable to gain sufficient traction against Lake in the primary.
Florida: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is term-limited, and his wife, former newscaster Casey DeSantis (R), is not interested in running to succeed him as some had expected. So expect a knock-out drag-out fight between ambitious Republicans in a state that is becoming redder in terms of voter registration by the month.
Rep. Byron Donalds (R) is known to be interested in becoming governor. Even former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R), has talked about running, although the recent release of the Ethics Committee report on his personal conduct might shame him out of taking the plunge. Note that neither of these men is on especially friendly terms with DeSantis.
Another X-factor in this race is that DeSantis will be choosing someone at the top level of Florida politics to succeed Marco Rubio (R) in the U.S. Senate, and that person would obviously then be taken out of consideration for governor. There is speculation that DeSantis could pick Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) or Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez (R), which in either case would take a potential high-profile governor candidate out of the mix.
On the Democratic side, two state senators are teasing runs, and that’s it so far. It is hard to believe that this open-seat race won’t draw a more prominent Democratic candidate. After their near-miss in 2018, Democrats are going on 32 years in the wilderness as of next November, having last elected a governor in 1994. Unfortunately for them, the political environment for Democrats has never been as bad as it is now, given their deficit (as of a month ago) of more than 1.1 million registered voters.
Georgia: The long-term trend seems to be that the Peach State is slipping away from Republicans. But both Trump’s victory here and the popularity of Gov. Brian Kemp (R) — who is term-limited — hold forth some hope that Republicans can buck the typical midterm trend and maintain control of the governorship.
Attorney General Chris Carr (R) is the first Republican declared in the race. Former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R), who lost her seat in the state party’s 2020 implosion, is reportedly considering a run. So are Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R).
On the Democratic side, former State Sen. Stacey Abrams (D) would seem to be barred by the informal “two-strikes-and-you’re-out” rule in statewide politics, but she is reportedly considering it anyway. So are U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath (D) and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Jason Carter (D), a former state senator and grandson of the recently deceased President Jimmy Carter.
Wisconsin: Gov. Tony Evers (D) is eligible to run for a third term and may opt to do so. However, it is unlikely that he or anyone else will announce before the April 1 state Supreme Court election.
Ironically, a win in that April race might harm Democrats’ chances at the governorship if it results in the overturn of the highly consequential Act 10, the government employment reform law that has saved state, county and local governments tens of billions of dollars since 2011.The most prominent names among Republicans who might run are 2024 Senate nominee Eric Hovde and U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany.
