The Briefing, Vol. XII Issue 16
This week:
- Can Biden abort his way to re-election?
- Braun is the one to beat in Indiana governor race
- Very close race in West Virginia
Outlook
It has been evident ever since the Supreme Court’s overturn of Roe v. Wade that Democrats would focus on abortion as their main issue in the 2024 campaign. But this has been somewhat boosted by the Arizona Supreme Court’s recent resurrection of an old statute banning abortion. Although it was first passed in 1864, and the media have latched on to that date to make an abortion ban seem even less reasonable, it was a standard law of the sort that existed until Roe in many states. It is also more realistic to say that the law dates back to 1913, when the state legislature codified it after Arizona became a state.
The open question is whether all of this focus on abortion really helps Joe Biden and the Democrats more generally.
In the meantime, Donald Trump has tried to thread a political needle by taking the position that he thinks the Arizona ban is unreasonable and should be repealed, but that abortion should be settled at the state level and this is just part of the process.
Trump has every reason to hedge here. Although he did more to advance the pro-life cause than any previous president since Roe, he did not come up through the conservative movement and almost certainly only adopted a pro-life position in order to head the GOP ticket in 2016. He also doesn’t want to jeopardize his chances in Arizona, because it is a key state for putting together his electoral puzzle and getting to 270 votes later this year.
There haven’t really been any swing-state polls in the time since the Arizona ruling. In fact, even the most recently released polls — nationwide and in other states such as Texas and Florida — probably were not taken recently enough to incorporate this news into them.
Abortion issue: Then again, there’s no guarantee that this is going to sway anyone. For one thing, it isn’t even a new issue, as it has already arisen in several states. And so Republicans would make a big strategic mistake (let alone the moral implications) if they were to panic now or, if they don’t agree with it, to embrace Trump’s laissez-faire position reflexively. They have managed to run and win on a pro-life platform for decades in most U.S. states, including Arizona. They can’t be deterred by the fact that suddenly their position actually means something.
Because the Biden presidency is being so poorly received, and because they have lost faith with working-class voters and sound ridiculous blaming inflation on corporations, Democrats are almost being forced to run on an abortion-only platform. They seem delighted with the opportunity, but this will have unintended negative consequences for them. For example, imagine how this could alienate certain Democratic constituencies, such as Hispanic voters, who have already been trending toward the Republicans anyway.
A very prominent debate on abortion will also put Democrats in a position where they are almost obligated to take a position that most Americans view as extreme — that there should be no limits on abortion at all, for any reason, and that it should be legal right up until the moment of birth. A very large supermajority of American voters, over 60 percent in most polls, believe that abortions should be illegal at least after the first trimester, which is about 12 weeks into pregnancy. About 80 percent think it should be illegal after the second trimester.
So no, this is not an unwinnable issue. And Democratic politicians and candidates have been successfully ridiculed at times for their abortion fanaticism. Consider the case of former Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam. Former Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) lost his seat in 2014 after a journalist remarked during a debate that his campaign’s focus on abortion and contraception to the exclusion of all else had led people to call him “Senator Uterus.” If they play their cards right, Republicans will have opportunities to turn this around on them again. They may argue that our country cannot abort its way back to prosperity, or that Biden cannot abort his way to reelection.
Abortion is not an issue that most conservatives or Republicans like to discuss or read about much — publishers will tell you that it is not a good book topic, for example, because even people who care about it don’t like to think about it. But they need to stick to their convictions, and not just for moral reasons but also for political reasons. Trump can “get away with” softening his abortion position because he wasn’t terribly committed to the issue to begin with. But other politicians who do so probably lack that luxury. They will not win voters over by abandoning something they have long professed in public.
The deeper question, still unanswered in public opinion surveys and primaries, is whether voters will be willing to tolerate four more years of Biden and Kamala Harris just in order to have more abortions in America. Perhaps Republicans even ought to say it that way when the issue arises.
Governor 2024
Indiana: Unsurprisingly, Sen. Mike Braun (R) has a “commanding” lead in his bid to be Indiana’s next governor. A new State Affairs/Howey Politics poll shows him with 44 percent support in the primary, over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch (R) at 10 percent and all others in single digits. His favorability overall is 59 percent over 24 percent unfavorable.
Interestingly, Crouch, the sitting lieutenant governor, was “not familiar” to 49 percent of those surveyed. Even more surprisingly, Curtis Hill, the conservative former state attorney general who lost renomination in 2020 amid a massive controversy, was unknown to 61 percent.
The primary is May 7.
West Virginia: The race for Joe Manchin’s open Senate seat in West Virginia is not close at all — various surveys have shown Gov. Jim Justice (R) with a commanding lead in the primary over Rep. Alex Mooney (R).
But the governor’s race is another story. Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) and former state Del. Moore Capito (R) appear to be nearly tied. Morrisey stands at 31 percent and Capito at 29 percent in a poll released last week. Capito is the son of West Virginia’s junior senator, Shelley Moore Capito (R).
The primary election is May 14.
Senate 2024
Maryland: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) joined most of Maryland’s Democratic establishment last week in endorsing Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) for Senate. On the other side, however, Attorney General Anthony Brown came out in favor of and cut a campaign ad for Rep. David Trone (D) against his fellow Democrat from Prince George’s. One might perhaps detect a note of humor in the fact that people who know and work with Trone in Washington support Alsobrooks, and people who know Alsobrooks from PG County back Trone.
The winner in the May 14 primary will likely face former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) this fall in what is expected to be a very competitive race.
Nevada: Veteran Sam Brown (R) has a different perspective from those of other pollsters. His internal polling shows him easily winning the nomination for Senate to run against Sen. Jacky Rosen (D).
There is some controversy over Brown for being insufficiently supportive of Trump. One opponent has even cut an ad attacking him for implicitly criticizing Trump (by sighing in an interview) over his stance on Ukraine. Brown recently went to Mar-a-Lago seeking Donald Trump’s endorsement.
