Obama Remains Landrieu’s Big Hurdle

With one week left in the final push by Mary Landrieu and Bill Cassidy for the Louisiana Senate run-off, all eyes are on the Landrieu campaign and whether she can make a miraculous turn-around.

Perhaps the best explanation for Landrieu’s collapse (and predictable political demise next week) is that she has never earned more than 52% of the vote in any election despite having been in the U.S. Senate for so long, argues Bill Barrow.

Yet Senate incumbency is one of strongest in politics with mediocre incumbents in many states easily topping 60-70% of the vote. In past elections Landrieu was buoyed by presidential election turnout or by a popular Democrat president, but when the worst combination came–a heavily unpopular Democrat president and a low-turnout midterm–her fate was largely sealed.

Next Tuesday’s election will likely prove to be the perfect storm, much like Hurricane Katrina was for New Orleans, in which it was just a matter of time before the levies broke under the weight of too much water. Landrieu’s storm has been brewing for years, and now there aren’t enough sandbags to hold back the electoral waters.