With analysts increasingly predicting a Republican victory in the midterms and some even calling for a GOP ‘wave’, Democrats have plenty of reason to be concerned. And it appears there is yet another reason.
The Democrat Party has for decades counted among its traditional base a majority of women voters, particularly those who are younger and unmarried. Barack Obama swept these voters by large margins in both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.
But a new WSJ/NBC poll shows signs of erosion in that base. Among the various questions in the poll, voters were asked which party they prefer in control of Congress.
The poll showed that among women voters the margin between Democrat and Republican preference has shrunk in half from 14% a month ago to only 7% last week.
Taken by itself the results may seem like an outlier, but it comports squarely with macro trends and a number of generic ballot polls showing either a Republican preference or trends moving that way.
If those numbers continue their present trajectory the gap between Democrat and Republican preference among the Democrats’ most important base could vanish virtually guaranteeing a flip in Senate control in November.