NBC/Marist Polls: Carson Continues to Surge, Bush Beating Dem Opponents

NBC/Marist Polls: Carson Continues to Surge, Bush Beating Dem Opponents

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A brand new set of NBC/Marist polls released yesterday measured head-to-head matchups and the Democratic and Republic races in Iowa and New Hampshire with some fascinating results. Of particular interest are the continuing Ben Carson surge, the paradox of performance by Jeb Bush and Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders’ opening lead in New Hampshire.

First, the past week or so of polling has indicated that Ben Carson is running second only to Donald Trump nationally and that he is a close second in Iowa as well, even tied in one poll. The new NBC/Marist results reinforce the finding in Iowa, where Trump and he run 1-2 by a double-digit margin.

Trump is at 29 percent and Carson is at 22 percent, while distant third is occupied by Jeb Bush at 6 points. Scott Walker and Rand Paul are tied for fourth at 5 points.

Bigger news for Carson: he’s in double digits for the first time in New Hampshire at 11 percent, in close third behind John Kasich who is at 12 points. Carson had been averaging around 6% in New Hampshire, polling no higher than 8%. With his high favorability in every poll that has measured it recently, Carson is clearly Donald Trump’s biggest competition.

Jeb Bush runs fourth in New Hampshire in single digits at 8 percent. Kasich seems to be the preferred establishment candidate in the Granite State, which is bad news for Bush, who, despite having the early fundraising advantage and the backing of a lot of influential people in the Republican Party, has failed to gain traction.

But there is an odd paradox when comparing Bush’s numbers and Trump’s. Although Trump’s numbers triple or quadruple Bush’s in primary and caucus polls, in head-to-head matchups against potential Democratic nominees, Bush performs noticeably better than Trump does.

Bush beats Hillary in Iowa by 11 points and in New Hampshire by 5. Trump beats her as well in Iowa, by 5, but loses to her by a point in New Hampshire. Matched up against Joe Biden, Bush narrowly wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire, by 2 points and 1 point, respectively. Trump, on the other hand, loses to Biden in both cases, by 4 in Iowa and 9 in New Hampshire.

Sanders, despite undeniably beating Hillary in New Hampshire in and doing reasonably well in Iowa, was not included in the head-to-head matchups. In Iowa, he trails Clinton by 11 points. She is at 38 percent and he is at 27. Biden, who is still not in the race, polls third in double digits at 20 percent.

He continues his solid, month-long lead over Clinton in New Hampshire. In NBC/Marist’s poll, he leads by 9 points at 41 percent to Hillary’s 32 percent. Biden runs third again in double digits, at 16 percent.

NBC/Marist’s results show the evolving nature of this primary. Carson, like Trump and Carly Fiorina, have been performing well, as a large number of voters on the right search for an outsider to nominate. Similarly, the search continues for the candidate who is both popular with Republicans (as Trump currently is) and in the general (as Bush currently is.)

As much as the volatile nature of the Republican primary might concern conservatives, Democrats should be more concerned. The coronation of Hillary Clinton continues to go so badly that the Left is grasping for a socialist and a gaffe-prone vice president who isn’t even in the race yet.



  1. We have just gone through almost 7 years of a President who had no executive management experience, before being elected. The last thing that the GOP needs to do is follow 8 years of incompetent management with our own incompetent President. Don’t get me wrong. I like Carson on the issues. He stands for most of the things I support. But I have never voted for a candidate who did not have at least 4 years of “successful” executive management experience with at least a $50 million budget, in either the public sector (governors) or the private sector (business owners, CEOs, or corporate presidents). How can we expect a person who has never managed a budget, to suddenly take over what is effectively the largest corporation in the world, with a TRILLION DOLLAR budget. I voted for Ronal Reagan for two reasons. First, he reflected my values. But he also had a successful track record, as governor of California. If Reagan had not had some sort of track record, I would not have voted for him, because the Presidency of the United States is not a place for ON-THE-JOB TRAINING. Because of his track record, Reagan was QUALIFIED. Carson is very good on the issues. But he is not QUALIFIED as an executive manager, which means that he is not QUALIFIED to be President.

    There is an old adage that actually qualifies as a truism. “You have to learn to walk before you can run.” Just because someone happens to be a genius at engineering, mathematics, or brain surgery and watched “Top Gun” doesn’t qualify him to fly a fighter jet. Similarly, just because Dr. Carson happens to be a genius at brain surgery and has watched our country deteriorate, does not qualify him to be President. He needs to develop an entirely different set of skills, than that of a neurosurgeon, if he wants to be President and you don’t do that on the job. Regardless of how much I like him on the issues, Carson will never get my vote.

    • You are absolutely correct. Your statements reveal to ALL AMERICANS why we MUST ELECT DONALD TRUMP to be the President of the United States of America. No one else can lead out out of the depths of despair that our country is in today. And yes, Ben Carson IS a nice guy and saved many lives and gave thousands of people a better quality of life, but that alone, does NOT make him Presidential material. He would be great as our Surgeon General….because he KNOWS medicine and health issues inside and out. But NO to him as President.

    • Then you have not researched this man. Dr. Carson has been running a highly successful charity for decades and has or is currently on numerous boards of major companies.

      Dr. Carson is an Emeritus Professor of Neurosurgery, Oncology, Plastic Surgery and Pediatrics at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine. In 1984, he was named Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins Children’s Center, a position he retired from in June 2013. Dr. Carson is lauded for major innovations in surgery, including the first intrauterine procedure to relieve pressure on the brain of a hydrocephalic fetal twin, and resurrected the procedure for cerebral hemispherectomy (the removal of half the brain) to alleviate uncontrollable seizures, of which he has performed more than 100. He made medical history in 1987 when he became the first surgeon to successfully separate occipital craniopagus twins, and was involved in several other subsequent separations.

      He was appointed by President George W. Bush to serve on the President’s Council on Bioethics in 2004 and in 2008, and was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor. He has also authored more than 100 neurosurgical publications. He has been awarded more than 60 honorary doctorate degrees and dozens of national merit citations.

      He has a success charity organization and started it in 1994.

      Dr. Carson sits on the board of directors of numerous organizations, including Kellogg’s, Costco Wholesale Corporation, Vaccinogen, the Academy of Achievement, and is an Emeritus Fellow of the Yale Corporation, the governing body of Yale University. So now that you have the fact and assuming you are not a Trump shill I hope you change your mind and not simply dismiss this great American.

    • Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon and Ford. Did you vote for any of them? None of them had previous executive management experience. These are the presidents that have served in my lifetime, that had no previous executive experience. My point is this, are the non-executive candidates smart enough to surround themselves with competent advisers?
      I believe Carson, Cruz, Trump and Fiorina would all be good choices. Many more of our past presidents entered office without previous executive experience as well. I would encourage you to broaden your scope of choice, and look at the quality of the individual as well.

    • You have not done your homework then sir. he has sat on the boards of Kellogg and Costco for decades. I think they have budgets bigger than your minimum standard. He also runs a scholarship fund and has since 1994 and has given to over 6700 worthy young adults. He was head of pediatrics at John Hopkins and their budget is 1.6 billion overall so how can you say he has no executive experience when it is starring you right in the face? Unless you are against him and this is a hit piece and then i get what you are up to. I hope this either helps or smokes you out as a hit piece writer.

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