The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 36
Sept. 14, 2026
This week:
- Republicans keep it close in Minnesota
- Trojan Horse “independent” candidates have a rough week
- Democrat has a clear advantage in Texas
Outlook
With Labor Day now in the rearview mirror, the prospects for the 2026 midterm elections are getting clearer. Republicans face a very challenging environment. Odds are very strong that they will lose the House, and they are more likely than not to lose the Senate. However, they have kept races in several key states competitive, to the point that they do still have a chance to keep the Senate.
What’s more, Democrats have badly fumbled in at least two Senate races — in Florida by picking a socialist nominee, and in Montana by running a strategy too-clever-by-half — that might have been competitive for them in past Democrat-favorable election cycles. Think 2006, for example, when Democrats won in both of those states.
Senate 2026
Minnesota: In what has been a nearly hopeless state for Republicans for two decades, Republican nominee Michelle Tafoya (R) has consistently kept within single digits her race against far-left Lieutenant Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D).
But if Tafoya is to have any chance of winning, she will have to overcome the top-ballot effects from a more lopsided race for governor. For example, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) has a sizable lead in her race (ten points) in the same recent poll showing Tafoya within two points.
Montana: On Aug. 11, it became too late for any of the candidates running for Senate in Montana to quit the race. This is significant because it means Democrats have effectively already given up on what could have been a competitive race in Montana.
Their strategy, which is also being used in states where voters are hostile toward Democrats, such as Nebraska and Idaho, was to run away from their party’s brand and rally behind a faux-independent Democrat, former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar (I).
The Democratic nominee, Alani Bankhead (D), refused to follow the script and drop out of the race after winning her primary, specificially citing Bodnar’s handling of a Title IX sex-discrimination settlement as university president. At this point, multiple polls show Republican nominee Kurt Alme (R) leading the race comfortably over Bankhead and Bodnar, but with a bare plurality. They are clearly splitting a Democrat-friendly vote. And it is easy to see how, if they had succeeded in passing a ballot referendum in 2024 that tried to institute jungle primaries — which they nearly did pass — they could have gamed the system with this sort of fake-independent strategy to sneak a Democrat across the finish line. It is something conservative voters in states like Montana and neighboring Idaho should consider carefully when so-called election “reform” measures are proposed.
This is a corollary to what is happening in Alaska, where Democrats are trying to use a pretend Republican candidate and a ranked-choice voting system to fool voters into voting for the wrong candidate due to name-confusion. Sometimes, this sort of cynical ploy is promising, but other times it backfires.
Nebraska: Speaking of cynical ploys, independent candidate Dan Osborn is trying to exploit both name confusion (he is not related to former Nebraska football coach and Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Osbourne) and the choreographed dropout of the race by the winner of the Democratic primary, Cindy Burbank (D), winner of the Democratic primary.
Republican incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) appears to have learned from Osborn’s near miss in 2024 against his Senate colleague Deb Fischer (R) and is taking nothing for granted. He appears to be working hard to define Osborn early on as a fake Democrat — or at least, this is how some interpret the release of “hours” of audio showing Osborn disparaging President Trump’s idea of a border wall — which he had praised throughout his 2024 race — as “a joke” and a “symbol of racism” that “does nothing.”
The audio was recorded in a context where Osborn apparently thought Republican trackers were not recording him. Lesson: Don’t say things in the first place if you don’t believe them. But this simple maxim flies in the face of the entire strategy of using faux-independent candidates.
He has certainly been proven wrong about it “doing nothing,” but the incident is extremely damning as to the candidate’s lack of sincerity. He has specifically cited his support for the border wall as a sign of his political independence. He has similarly spoken out of both sides of his mouth regarding transgender athletes competing in women’s sports.
New Hampshire: Democrats weren’t in quite as bad shape as some feared when it comes to succumbing to socialism, it turns out. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) managed to win convincingly against Democratic Socialists of America candidate Karishma Manzur (D).
Although Republicans have hopes of gaining this seat, it is also noteworthy that Democrats exceeded their turnout in the primary by about 50 percent. This may just reflect the fact that the Democratic primary was viewed as more competitive, particularly in the governor’s race (there was no serious competition to popular Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), Democrats are clearly charged up about this year’s election, and it has shown up in higher Democratic turnout in primaries in state after state.
Texas: This continues to be a disturbingly close race, at least from a Republican perspective. The overwhelming preponderance of polls over the summer show James Talarico (D) narrowly leading Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). Another pattern that keeps recurring is that Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads in his re-election race in polls where Paxton trails.
The fact that Democrats really think they have a chance of winning here — that it isn’t just a delusion among small-dollar donors — should be clear from Talarico abjectly running away from the transgender issue, at least to the extent that he thinks he can plausbly do so.
We have noted previously that polls underestimate Republicans in Texas. However, in a year like this one, Democrats’ chances should not be scoffed at, especially when there is so much data pointing in their direction.
Republicans are signaling they will spend immense amounts on this race through various organizations.
