The Briefing, Vol. XII, Issue 39
This week:
- Democrats frustrated that Harris can’t open up a lead
- Harris’s media-avoidance strategy may be necessary, but it’s limiting her
- A North Carolina Republican’s scandal could hurt Trump’s chances
President 2024
Believe it or not, the current dynamic in the presidential race is very frustrating for Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris (D), they reason, is the candidate of “joy” and “good vibes,” and she’s running against “literally Hitler,” so why can’t she open up a lead?
It must be racism. Or bad polling. Or something.
Or maybe the Biden-Harris administration is just doing so badly on the issues that it was never going to be a great year for any Democrat running for president. And frankly, maybe she’s just that great a candidate, either, just like everyone thought a couple of months ago.
Polling: To be sure, seven of the last ten national polls show Harris with a lead over former President Donald Trump ranging from two to six points. Two polls give Trump a small lead, and one shows a tie.
But there are three things to keep in mind here that apply as much now as they did when President Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee.
First, as a rule, Trump overperforms his polling on Election Day. Second, the current state of polling looks a lot more like Trump’s 2016 victory than his 2020 defeat. The polls were actually a bit more favorable to Hillary Clinton at this point in 2016 (she was up by as much as 7 points in multiple national polls). Trump trailed Biden in every September poll in 2020 except one, and by double digits in some cases.
Third, the state-level polling looks a lot better for Trump than the national polling, although it still shows an extremely close race. There remain many plausible state-level outcomes in which either candidate could win the presidency.
How close is this race? Well, depending on what you want to believe, you can find a recent poll that has either candidate winning, within one point, or tied in Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan. Georgia and Arizona seem to be leaning more toward Trump, although not at all by wide margins.
Paths to victory: As we have noted previously, the most straightforward way for Trump to win the election is to carry North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania for a total of 271 electoral votes (or more if he carries additional swing states). Trump can also afford to lose North Carolina if he wins Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia for a total of 272 electoral votes.
Harris, on the other hand, wins in nearly all scenarios with at least 270 electoral votes if she can hold on to all three “Blue Wall” states —Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Such scenarios do not require her to win in Arizona or Nevada. Note that this changes if Trump upsets her in Virginia, which recent polling suggests is not out of the question.
If Harris loses Michigan or Wisconsin (but not both), she can make up for that by winning North Carolina, for 271 or 276 electoral votes, respectively.
Nebraska Extra-EV: There is one additional possibility in the Electoral College, but it will require legislation. It also requires a bit of an explanation.
Here’s the short version: Only two states — Maine and Nebraska — award electoral votes piecemeal, for statewide victory and separately for victories in their congressional districts. In the last election, this allowed Trump to gain an extra electoral vote Maine, and Joe Biden to win an electoral vote in Nebraska.
Now, due to obscure rules in the two states’ legislatures, Nebraska has an opportunity to secure an extra electoral vote for Trump. And some national Republicans are encouraging the idea — specifically Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).
Earlier this year, Nebraska legislators toyed with the idea of making their state’s electoral votes winner-take-all, like most other states. This would have the effect of handing Trump one extra vote, which could make the difference in several scenarios in the coming election.
However, Maine threatened to do the same thing, likely costing Trump one electoral vote, which would make it a wash. And so as of this summer, the two states reached a stalemate and left it there.
However, things have changed now that we are inside of 90 days before the election, since that is how long it takes for laws in Maine to take effect. Absent a two-thirds majority (which is reportedly unlikely), Maine legislators will not be able to pass their measure as emergency legislation. Therefore, Nebraska could act in a special session. Gov. Jim Pillen (R), despite being snubbed by Trump in 2022, has said he will call that session if the state’s unicameral legislature can cobble together the 33 votes needed to overcome a filibuster. As of last week, local news reported that there were 31 or 32 votes for it so far.
The extra electoral vote from Nebraska could become critical in one scenario that still seems quite plausible: If Trump wins Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, but Harris hangs on and wins all three “Blue Wall” states. Instead of a Harris win, this would result in an Electoral College tie that looks like this:
Note that this map is explanatory and not our projection.
Such a scenario would throw the election to the U.S. House, where the rules for voting (one state, one vote) will almost certainly favor Trump, even if Democrats gain a narrow House majority.
Would this be a cheap, dirty way to win? Maybe, but so was swapping out Joe Biden. This would probably not turn a significant number of votes over to Harris, but the wailing an gnashing of teeth among the professional Democratic commentariat would be quite something.
Harris’s media disadvantage: There is one thing Trump and JD Vance are doing very well that Harris and Tim Walz cannot do: Earned media.
Harris has been avoiding all spontaneous interactions with journalists for reasons that become very obvious every time she speaks in public. Even in response to sympathetic questioners such as Oprah Winfrey (at her own event) and the National Association of Black Journalists, Harris repeatedly falls back on repeating memorized phrases and shows no grasp at all of the issues she is discussing. At her best, she strings together enough platitudes and familiar phrases to complete a sentence. At worst, she produces nonsensical word-salads. She may just be nervous, but the problem appears to be deeper than that.
She and Trump seem to be rhetorical opposites to one another. Trump’s mind always seems to be two or three ideas ahead of where his mouth is, which results in a jerky, un-quotable, stream-of-consciousness speaking style. He is hard to follow, but people kind know what he means (or make up their own malevolent interpretations), which is why people have such strong reactions to him. Harris, on the other hand, just has nothing to say, and says it anyway.
Harris’s running mate cannot go out giving tons of interviews either, since he was reportedly chosen over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) specifically because he would not upstage her.
Trump and Vance, on the other hand, have been under the radar, giving dozens of media and podcast interviews, some to audiences that dwarf the size of mainstream media viewership.
Harris is therefore losing a key opportunity that would really benefit her as the less-known candidate who needs to introduce herself to the voters, whether to prove her own competence or just to put daylight between herself and Joe Biden’s policies.
Congress: With the presidential race on a knife’s edge, a government shutdown was probably the last thing Republican nominee Trump needed. And considering that it wouldn’t take effect until the next election anyway, efforts to include the election integrity-related SAVE Act are not as much of a priority from a short-term legislative perspective. People voting this year are registered now. SAVE is about the future, but a government shutdown scrambles the issues in the here and now, just as voters are set to cast ballots.
Having already forced Democrats to vote against requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote, Republicans have gotten as much utility as they could out of this concept for the 2024 cycle — a message. The time to bring the legislation back, therefore, will be after the election, with an eye toward 2026 and 2028.
Governor 2024
North Carolina: The gubernatorial campaign of conservative Lt. Governor Mark Robinson (R) is fully imploding due to revelations of his online identity on a pornography website.
The situation is bad enough and the story credible enough that staff are reportedly resigning en masse. The Trump campaign reportedly wants Robinson to step aside, although it might yet be too late.
In addition to his unseemly connection to pornography, Robinson made multiple comments online that are controversial for other reasons, including his self-description as a “Black Nazi.”
Robinson, outspoken already in his attacks on homosexuality, insists that the whole story is “outrageous lies” and is holding on, refusing to step aside.
The bigger question now is whether Robinson’s late-stage self-destruction will harm Trump’s chances in a critical state. In 2020, Trump (who won the state by 1.5 points) received about 75,000 fewer votes than Gov. Roy Cooper (D) (who won by 4.5 points).
