The Briefing, Vol. XII, Issue 40
This Week:
- Harris ‘underwater’ in Michigan, Democrat says
- NRSC rushes into Nebraska to bail out incumbent
- Republican hope in additional Senate races?
President 2024
Whatever you want to believe about this year’s presidential race, there is a fresh poll out there to justify your view.
Former President Donald Trump is either leading or trailing Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona, in Georgia, in Nevada, in North Carolina, and in Pennsylvania, and in some of those states they are also exactly tied. All of those results are all available to the willing consumer in polls released just since last Wednesday — all you need to do is decide which poll you want to go with. Some pollsters (such as Bloomberg) seem uniformly more favorable toward Harris. Others (Atlas Intel especially) seem to favor Trump.
It’s just a really close race, and anyone who tells you they know what’s going to happen is lying to you. Harris’s very narrow lead in most (but not all) national polls remains consistent, showing that the race has not changed significantly.
Trump’s clearest path to victory is to win Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In the event that he doesn’t win all three of those, he can substitute some combination of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada for one of them.
Will voters tire of Harris as theay see more of her? Maybe, but it isn’t coming easily. This is partly because her campaign is shielding her from the media to the extent possible.
Again, the media’s hyping of Harris, combined with Democratic relief that Joe Biden would not longer be their candidate, have together successfully transformed her image almost overnight from one of the least popular politicians in her party into a genuine contender. Trump, of course, receives relentlessly negative coverage, no matter what he does, but this has been a constant for him throughout his political career since 2015.
Tonight’s vice presidential debate, although it almost certainly will not move the needle, will give JD Vance an opportunity to reach voters directly over and above the uniformly hostile media coverage he has received. Not only is he a very smart person who can handle himself but he probably can’t look any worse than the media coverage has made him so far, so there’s probably only upside for him.
Nebraska: Meanwhile, Nebraska Republicans will not attempt to change their state’s unusual method of allotting electoral votes by congressional district this year, because they lack the votes to overcome a filibuster in the state’s unicameral legislature.
This is a setback for Trump because it means he probably cannot win the election without carrying at least one of the three “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Michigan: Axios reports that a key Democrat in Michigan is warning that Harris is struggling in her state. Senate nominee Elissa Slotkin (D) recently told donors in a virtual fundraiser that Harris is “underwater” in her campaign’s internal polling. This has to be somewhat alarming for Democrats, given that most public polls say otherwise. Is Harris being overestimated? And by how much?
Another note about Michigan is that its relatively large ethnic Arab and Muslim voting populations may play a large role, due to what isn’t happening in the Middle East — namely, a Gaza cease-fire.
Israel’s stunning decapitation attacks against Hezbollah this month — including the exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, the strategic bombings, and now the assassination of leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon — may render less likely a potential cease-fire October Surprise that many have been discussing. Israel’s aggressive campaign in Lebanon against the more menacing Hezbollah may signal that the Israelis will spend the next month in Gaza finishing the job against Hamas, which started the conflict last Oct. 7.
The stay-home/uncommitted line against Biden, a protest over Israel’s military response to Hamas, drew 100,000 votes in Michigan’s Democratic presidential primary in February. In a close race, that is more than enough to make the difference.
Senate 2024
Arizona: This race seems to be going nowhere fast for Republicans. Kari Lake (R) consistently trails, even in polls that strongly favor Trump over Harris. For example, she trailed Ruben Gallego (D), 47 to 41, in last week’s USA Today poll, in which Trump led Harris by six points as well. It’s not a good sign for her, especially given her late fade in 2022 and noteworthy underperformance of other Republicans down-ticket when she lost the race for governor in 2022.
Maryland: Can former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) carry his anti-Trump Republican Senate campaign over the finish line, thanks to his opponent cheating on her taxes? It’s still a longshot in such a Democratic state, but it’s not impossible.
Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) apparently owes tens of thousands of dollars in local taxes and possibly additional fines and penalties after falsely claiming a senior citizen tax credit and a homestead exemption on a D.C. rental property where her grandmother used to live.
Now that she’s been caught it was of course unintentional and she says she’ll pay it all back.
Michigan: It is certainly believable, given his electoral history, that Trump will outperform all of his polling — he has nearly always done so in every election he has been in. Still, be careful about trusting favorable polls too much.
For example, you may have noticed as mentioned above that Atlas Intel has released a number of state polls in which Trump is doing exceptionally well. The firm has a good track record from previous cycles, yet there are reasons for caution. In Wisconsin, Trump leads by two points. In Georgia, he leads by one. In Pennsylvania, he leads by three. In Michigan, by four. In Arizona, by one.
The fly in the ointment is that the organization’s poll of Michigan is the only one this election cycle so far by anyone showing former Rep. and House Intel Chairman Mike Rogers (R) leading Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D), and it’s not a small lead.
Perhaps Rogers is broadly underrated and something has happened under the radar, but it’s very odd that just this one out of multiple polls shows him with a lead, and with a robust five-point lead at that.
It is true that Trump’s campaign appears bullish on Michigan, just given how much time he has been investing there in recent weeks. A stay-home protest by ethnic Arab Democrats could also have an effect here. But this is the kind of result that needs to be verified in order to be trusted.
Montana: Businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) is opening up more daylight between himself and incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D), taking a 50 to 43 percent lead last week in a survey by RMG Research for Napolitan News. Tester had led by five points when the same survey was conducted in August, suggesting either that the poll is conducted very badly or that Sheehy has picked up some serious momentum. Pollster Scott Rasmussen (who founded RMG) says the change is a result of “Republican voters coming home” and of a broader realization that this race will probably determine which party controls the U.S. Senate.
Nebraska: As we anticipated a few weeks ago, the NRSC is suddenly being forced to come in and bail out Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who now finds herself in an uncomfortably close race against indepdendent candidate Dan Osborn. A loss in this race could cost Republicans the Senate.
Ohio: If you were wondering where Republicans would put on the full-court press, here it is. In an effort to put Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) Senate seat on the table, donors and outside groups are pouring resources into Ohio to help Bernie Moreno (R) finish strong and take advantage of what may be a double-digit Trump victory statewide. As a result, Moreno and allies have doubled levels of online, TV and radio ad spending this month by Brown and his backers.
Pennsylvania: As in Michigan, another poll that has Trump doing exceptionally well — from the reliable Republican firm Trafalgar — has Dave McCormick (R) just one point behind incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D), 47 to 46 percent. It is worth mentioning that the Atlas Intel poll of the state also shows a close race, with Casey leading by two points. Others do not share the view that this is a close race, however — last week, Fox News had Casey up by six points.
