The Briefing, Vol. XII, Issue 34
This week:
- Signs the Harris hype may not last
- Delaware Democrats roiled by scandal
- Nevada’s Brown runs far behind Trump
President 2024
How do you solve a problem like Kamala Harris? The media and the Democrats think they have it all figured out. She unleashes a hideous cackle every time she is confronted with an uncomfortable question? Just turn it around and make it into a positive: “She brings joy!”
For now, at what might prove to be the high tide for her campaign, Harris has the upper hand. She might even get a bit more of a bump from this week’s Democratic convention.
Will it last? We think probably not. For one thing, the media has been so relentless in its campaign for Harris that she should be further ahead. The hype has been non-stop, and, to put it bluntly, the Trump campaign has not done that well in reacting to the change of candidate, either. The hype cannot last, and Trump will adjust.
Second, her very first foray into policy has been so poorly received. Harris’s call to bust inflation through price-controls embraces the most facile type of leftist thinking — something more appropriate to Caracas than to California. The Washington Post was among the first to denounce the plan, which literally resembles proposals by dictator Nicolas Maduro, who exacerbated Venezuela’s food shortage through price-controls on bread. She is still promoting this idea as of this writing, even as commentators on mainstream media talk about it as something out of Peronist Argentina or the Soviet Union. Trump has quickly taken advantage, campaigning with a Venezuelan immigrant who explains in English and Spanish.
To put it another way, when Harris finally broke down and made her first substantive proposal in the campaign, she went one-for-one in saying something stupid. This probably won’t be the last time.
There is a third reason Harris stands to suffer. Her chosen running-mate has proven to be a true liability in a way the media clearly wished it could make JD Vance.
Tim Walz’s very-high-BAC drunk driving arrest and his subsequent lies about it over the years; his misrepresentation of his military service; and his praise for a “Hitler-promoting” Imam in Minnesota who on October 7 itself denounced “Israeli attacks,” while Israel was literally under attack by Hamas terrorists, are all signs that her vetting process included far too many shortcuts, and perhaps wasn’t much of a vetting process at all.
Electoral College: For now, Harris holds a modest lead in most national polls. The swing state polls are more of a mixed bag. The critical states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are clearly now much closer race than they ever were in the Trump-Biden contest, where Trump had a decisive advantage. Trump had Biden beat; now, he needs to change something to pull ahead of Harris and build a lead similar to what he had over Biden.
One thing Harris has done is put North Carolina back on the map in a way it wasn’t before, even though Trump leads in most recent polls of the Tar Heel State. Georgia seems more firmly in his camp, although that could change, too. In the meantime, Trump’s dreams of snatching Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado or New Hampshire away from Harris seem less likely than they were when Biden was his opponent.
We therefore view the Electoral College picture as follows:
Assuming he wins the states in red (not all of them are equally solid at this point), Trump can win the presidency by carrying Pennsylvania or else North Carolina and one other swing state.
The other thing to keep in mind about Trump, as CNN’s Harry Enten pointed out, is that he tends to outperform his polling. There are reasons to wonder whether this will be the case in 2024, as it was in 2016 and 2020. After all, Trump was (until Biden dropped out) doing better in blue states that he was going to lose anyway, which means his polling deficit implied less upside in the key swing states.
However, despite a lack of polling from deep blue states, that situation has likely changed since Harris took the Democratic nomination. And given the current polling situation, Trump may be close enough to win in the current environment, let alone any improved environment he can create between now and November.
In short, it is in his hands to win this thing, but he has a lot of work to do.
Governor 2024
Delaware: Not long ago, in the land of Biden, Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long (D) was on her way to an easy coronation as governor. She had the full support of the party establishment and exiting Gov. John Carney (D), and certainly there was no Republican opponent capable of stopping her.
Instead, a poll now shows a wide-open multi-candidate race in which she trails her principal primary opponent, New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer (D) in next month’s primary race, and a plurality of voters have not made up their minds. This comes in large part due to a scandal involving massive, long-term campaign-finance irregularities on the part of Hall-Long and evidence of recent misuse of government resources to run her campaign. Among other things, Hall-Long’s husband allegedly stole lists of Section 8 housing tenants and targeted the names in a get-out-the-vote drive.
The Republicans in the race have no chance unless Hall-Long gets the nomination, and even either of the leading candidates would be underdogs.
New Hampshire: As expected, former state attorney general and Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is the overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination for governor in the Sept. 10 primary. A St. Anselm College poll shows her at nearly 60 percent of the primary vote. Democrats have a much closer race between Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) and Executive Councilwoman Cinde Warmington (D).
Senate 2024
Nevada: It is telling that, even as it has Donald Trump narrowly leading, the most recent New York Times-Siena poll has Sam Brown trailing by nine points (49 to 40 percent) against Sen. Jackie Rosen (D). This once seemed like a much more promising pickup opportunity for Republicans, but Brown has a steep uphill climb if to close that gap.
