The Briefing, Vol. XII, Issue 12
This week:
- Biden’s swing-state deficit is a big problem for Democrats
- Ohio GOP Senate primary headed for a close finish
- Can Schumer coax Manchin out of retiring?
President 2024
Swing states: With last Tuesday’s primary elections, both Donald Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D) clinched their respective parties’ nominations. Although Americans generally don’t want to see a Biden-Trump rematch, this is exactly what they’re going to get.
Biden’s problem is that he starts out the general election season on defense across the map, This is right where he has been for months now. And although there is plenty of time between now and November, there is no enthusiasm for his candidacy. Voters are already familiar with him and his presidency, and they have formed their opinions.
Polls of historically competitive but Republican-leaning states such as Florida (Trump +6), Ohio (Trump+10 or +12, depending on whether RFK Jr. is in the poll), Georgia (Trump+3), North Carolina (Trump +5), and Arizona (Trump+4) consistently show the challenger in the lead. Meanwhile, Biden is on his back foot in Democrat-leaning swing states such as Michigan (Trump+3), Pennsylvania (Trump+4), Nevada (Trump +5 or +6), and as of last month, even in Wisconsin (Trump +4 or +3).
Any lead over an incumbent president — or any other incumbent politician for that matter — is a rarity that only fortunate challengers enjoy. A challenger who is even tied with an incumbent is usually a challenger headed for victory.
But to lead in every important swing state at this early point in the campaign is quite unusual, and especially for someone like Trump, who tends to poll more poorly than he performs in elections.
It also gives Republicans, as former RNC Chairman Reince Priebus pointed out last week, the luxury of being able to focus almost entirely on playing offense this summer and fall. They will want to spend massive resources on winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (perhaps with Minnesota thrown in for good measure), and the Biden campaign will already have far too much on its hands just defending those states to have much time, cash, or energy to put into marginal states like Nevada and Arizona, much less Florida.
It should be sufficient for victory if Republicans manage to bury Biden and hold him under in any one of those so-called “Blue Wall” states until Election Day.
Biden Recovery? Another serious problem for Biden is that it is not immediately obvious what can rescue him from his current predicament. A massive economic rally might help, although his administration is doing everything it can to prevent that by attacking and stifling the gig economy.
Presidents often enjoy a bump based on a big event such as a political convention or a State of the Union address. Biden’s State of the Union speech, however, has produced no improvement in his numbers whatsoever. His presidential disapproval rating is above 55 percent in most polls, which means that in order to win a popular vote majority (a must for him), he will have to convince millions of people who already dislike him as president to re-elect him. Between the immigration crisis and the economy, Biden’s overall approval lingers in the high 30s and low 40s, right wher it has been for months. And Biden’s favorability rating, a separate measure supposedly based only on personality rather than performance, is markedly worse than Trump’s. That has been the case pretty much all winter, which is quite unusual all on its own.
Senate 2024
Ohio: Expect a close finish in this week’s three-way Republican primary. Secretary of State Frank LaRose, state Sen. Matt Dolan, and car dealer Bernie Moreno are vying to take on Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who appears quite beatable so far.
Two recent surveys of the primary give a slight edge to Dolan, whose family owns Cleveland’s Major League Baseball team and who is the explicitly anti-Trump candidate in the race. Moreno, who has received Trump’s endorsement, leads in one other survey, but just barely and with only 22 percent.
A late survey from East Carolina University gives Dolan a slight lead with 33 percent to Moreno’s 31 percent. It also suggests a close race no matter who gets the nomination, although Dolan is the only one who actually leads Brown currently (43 to 41 percent). A poll by The Hill/Emerson College puts the race at 26 to 23, Dolan over Moreno, with LaRose at 16 percent. In other words, the race is quite wide open.
A victory by Dolan over a Trump-backed candidate would be quite a surprise and surely generate an entertaining negative reaction from the former president.
Trump will win handily in Ohio this year, which complicates Brown’s race.
Pennsylvania: As a follow-up to its February poll showing an uncompetitive ten-point race, The Hill/Emerson College have released a new survey showing a reasonably close contest in which Sen. Bob Casey (D) leads the presumptive Republican nominee, veteran and hedge fund manager David McCormick (R), by just four points, 45 to 41 percent.
West Virginia: A sign of Democrats’ growing concern about the 2024 Senate picture is the fact that Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer is trying to talk Joe Manchin out of retiring. Schumer reportedly wants him to run as an independent, something he could decide to do at any point before August.
So far, Manchin is having none of it, but it’s worth pointing out that his odds of winning even if he were to stay in the race would be no better than 50-50.
Democrats are counting on a bizarre scenario in which former coal executive and much-hated party-switcher Don Blankenship (the man who gave the world the hilarious nickname “Cocaine Mitch”) wins the Democratic nomination this May and splits the Republican vote in the general election. It is a complicated and far-fetched idea.
The Republicans to watch in this race are Gov. Jim Justice, the overwhelming favorite, and U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney.
