The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 20
May 18, 2026
This week:
- Could a Republican win in Oregon?
- Massie’s future is on the line this week
- Bill Cassidy finds out
Governor 2026
Oregon: Here’s an interesting thought: Are things finally getting bad enough in Oregon that a Republican could actually win for governor? It hasn’t happened since 1982. Indeed, only one Republican has won any statewide race in Oregon since 2003 — in 2016, the late Dennis Richardson (R) squeaked out a win for secretary of state.
But with real estate values plummeting in Portland, even iconic homegrown businesses fleeing the state, Antifa run amok, and a chronic and worsening homeless problem, Gov. Tina Kotek (D) trails former NBA star Chris Dudley (R), 48 to 44 percent, and only ties state Sen. Christine Drazan (R) with 45 percent apiece. Both results are quite bad for any incumbent governor.
This is all from Dudley’s campaign poll, so take it with a grain of salt. Still, it should increase the amount of interest in this race generally.
Senate 2026
Florida: The state Chamber of Commerce has released an early poll of a race Democrats would love to put in play. The result? They have their work cut out for them.
Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democratic fundraising king and Trump impeachment instigator Alex Vindman (D), 48 percent to 40 percent. Vindman raised nearly $8.2 million in the first quarter of this year, outraising the appointed incumbent. Incidentally, Rep. Byron Donalds (R) also looks pretty strong in the race for governor.
Georgia: Tomorrow’s Senate primary is expected to go a runoff — likely between Rep. Mike Collins (R) and either former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley (R) or Rep. Buddy Carter (R). The winner will face incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in a race billed as one of Republicans’ best pickup opportunities.
Kentucky: Rep. Andy Barr (R), having received President Trump’s late endorsement, is heavily favored to win the Senate nomination tomorrow over former Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R). Trump had also helped clear the field by promising an ambassadorial appointment to a third major candidate.
The winner will have the opportunity to defend the seat being vacated by the retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell against one Democrat among many in a rather unimpressive field — probably leftist Charles Booker (D), who won the Democrats’ Senate nomination in 2022 only to be crushed by Sen. Rand Paul (R). It could also be the establishment favorite, Amy McGrath (D), an Air Force veteran who won the Senate nomination in 2020 and was crushed by McConnell.
Louisiana: We noted last week that the Republican Party of 2026 very much still belongs to President Trump. If it wasn’t clear enough already, it should be by now. Despite a very noisy but small contingent on the Right, the unpopular war in Iran that he said he had to wage, and his slipping numbers in general, Trump continues to set the tone for who wins and who loses, as Saturday’s result in Louisiana demonstrated.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) just discovered the hard way — as many others have before him — that voting to impeach President Trump does not sell well in a Republican primary election.
Cassidy failed even to make the runoff, finishing in third place behind Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R) and state Treasurer John Fleming (R). Letlow and Fleming will go on to a June 27 runoff. Letlow, who finished first, must be favored in that contest.
Maine: Presumptive Grfaham Platner (D) exists to prove that Democrats’ offense-taking at racism and other offensive attitudes is merely tactical.
Platner’s answer when asked about his online comments disparaging rape victims and rural Mainers was to say, “I deleted it them a while ago.” Expect to see more about this in the coming months.
Michigan: Former House Intelligence Chairman Mike Rogers (R) leads all Democratic comers in a new MIRS poll. That is good news for Republicans, but this is much, much better news: Former Wayne County health official Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads the Democratic field by double digits, drawing 28 percent support against establishment favorite Rep. Haley Stevens (D) (18 percent) and far-left state legislator Mallory McMorrow (D) (17 percent). El-Sayed has opened up a big enough lead that his rivals have leaked their oppo research and gotten allies in the liberal media to run stories disparaging his credentials as a doctor.
House 2026
Kentucky-4: This primary, which takes place tomorrow, will be yet another test of President Trump’s ability to dominate local races. Libertarian-leaning Rep. Thomas Massie (R), who has sorely antagonized both the Trump administration and House leadership during this Congress, put enough of a target on his own back that Trump endorsed his primary opponent, Ed Gallrein (R). Gallrein is now just barely favored to defeat him, based on the results from one late poll. Another one shows Gallrein leading by one point, 44 to 43, but losing by a fraction of a point when leaners are included, but this is based on a difference of just six respondents. Suffice it to say that the race is really close.
Either way, it usually isn’t good news for you if you’re an incumbent and you’re trailing your challenger either with or without leaners. Still, with a win here, Massie would show that the right kind of Republican can defy Trump yet survive the Trump era.
Tennessee-9: The Tennessee legislature’s quick redraw of the state’s congressional map is claiming yet another Democratic casualty. Rep. Steve Cohen (D) is retiring, knowing that his chances of holding the newly drawn district are much diminished. The truth, however, is that his presence on the ticket, as a white man running against a black female Republican, makes it harder for Democrats to claim that there is something nefarious about the Supreme Court’s recent decision outlawing racial gerrymandering.
South Carolina-6: Likewise, after a momentary hesitation, South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has called a special session to draw a new congressional map. This will likely affect the seat of Rep. Jim Clyburn (D), a kingmaker in the Democratic Party.
