The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 50
Dec. 15, 2025
This week:
- About Indiana: ‘Safe’ districts often aren’t in a wave year
- Democrats’ overperformance must be taken seriously
- First poll of a Crockett-Talarico primary in Texas
Outlook
Midterms: Indiana’s state Senate overwhelmingly rejected a redistricting proposal that would have aided House Republicans nationally. This was taken as an unusual Republican rebuke of President Trump, who has been pressing legislatures around the country to draw new maps.
Many conservatives are upset about this outcome, as the new map would have been helpful. But the truth is, Republicans will need a lot more than just a few more favorable districts to survive what is coming in the midterm year.
The truth is — and previous wave elections bear this out — even “safe” seats tend to become unsafe for the president’s party in midterm election years like 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018.
Democrats on the rise: The recent Democratic flip of the Miami mayorship, combined with Democratic overperformance in several special House elections and state-level off-year elections as recently as last week, can be taken as a sign that Republicans have two big problems to solve over the next 10 months if they hope to defy recent historical trends and keep their majority in a midterm under a president of their own party.
First, they need to build a turnout operation that can mitigate the damage and overcome what appears to be alarming new Republican trends: complacency and low-propensity voting. Many have lauded the Trump coalition’s more working-class flavor, but along with that shift comes the habits of working-class voters. They do not necessarily show up to vote as reliably as the college-educated voters who formed a greater share of the party’s constituency in elections past. This implies that it will take a lot more resources and effort to mobilize this coalition, as well as a more robust role for Trump himself in the campaign.
Second, and more importantly, Republicans have something very big to prove. The national right track/wrong track numbers are heading back in the wrong direction, after briefly snapping to a point of multi-decadal optimism after Trump’s inauguration. Trump and the Republicans need to create economic conditions in which people actually feel like they are succeeding economically.
People don’t want to be told they are doing well when they aren’t. What they want are lower prices for daily staples (Trump has helped deliver on some of this, especially on eggs and gasoline) and housing affordability — a much steeper challenge that cannot be solved with a gimmick like the 50-year mortgage.
As we have noted previously, it’s not enough just to claim that people are doing well, as former President Joe Biden tried unsuccessfully throughout his term. They actually need to feel it themselves.
And even that might be enough. Economic conditions were pretty good in 2018, but even that wasn’t enough to save Republicans’ majority during Trump’s first term. Another reason, then, to set the bar of expectations low.
Governor 2025
Alabama: Former Sen. Doug Jones (D) is officially running for governor. Jones, who briefly served in the U.S. Senate by defeating Roy Moore in a 2017 special election, is the only Democrat with any statewide name recognition in the Yellowhammer State. His decision to run puts him on a collision course with the man who defeated him by more than 20 points in 2020, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R).
Senate 2025
Maine: So this is a bit different — a new poll has Gov. Janet Mills (D) leading foul-mouthed oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) in a Democratic Senate primary, 47 percent to 37 percent. This Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll is the first poll to show any such thing. Other surveys have shown Platner with a surprising and even an overwhelming lead, although these have mostly been associated with groups supporting Platner.
Since the credibility of the poll is a serious question, a few odd things about this one should be noted. For one thing, it was conducted over an eight-day period starting the Friday after Thanksgiving. For another, its sample of likely Democratic primary voters is only 318, which raises further issues.
This poll puts Mills in a tie (at 43 percent) with incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (D), while Platner leads her (43 to 42 percent). The most serious problem for Collins is not that she trails but that she is an incumbent polling in the low 40s — something a campaign will try to remedy.
Her net approval rating is minus-17 points (56 to 39 percent disapprove). Trump is at minus-19. Mills’ net favorables are at minus-8.
Ohio: On the heels of an outlier poll showing former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) with a one-point lead, a new Emerson survey shows appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) in the lead, 49 to 46 percent. Democrats probably need to put this race in play if they want to win a Senate majority next year.
Texas: The first poll of a head-to-head primary contest between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D) and state Rep. James Talarico (D) shows her in the lead, 51 to 43 percent. Crockett called it a “commanding lead” in an amusing statement. In fact, she is not as strong in this poll as most people expected.
The Texas Southern poll shows her winning overwhelmingly with the Lone Star State’s women (57 to 36 percent) and black voters (89 percent to 8 percent). Talarico holds smaller leads among men (52 to 42 percent), whites (53 to 40 percent) and Hispanics (51 to 41 percent). His best age demographic is the under-34 crowd, which suggests a strategy for pulling off an upset.
Crockett, who based on past performance can be counted on to say a lot of outrageous things between now and Election Day in March, leads among likely Democratic primary voters among both college graduates (48 to 45 percent) and non-college graduates (53 to 41 percent), so this divide really is racial more than it is anything else.
One further note: A very likely scenario here is that the Democratic primary will be decided in March, but the hotly contested Republican primary will go to a May runoff. Republican voters might therefore have an opportunity to make their choice with a bit more knowledge about what the November contest will look like.
