The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 22
June 2, 2025
This week:
- Courts could help Trump’s numbers by dumping his tariffs
- Darin LaHood (R) talked up as a candidate to replace Durbin
- Ramaswamy is on track for governor, but DeWine has other ideas
Outlook
Tariff case: Of all the cases pending against Trump administration actions in federal court, there is one that stands out. This is the case about whether Trump’s broad-based reciprocal tariffs (not all of his tariffs, though) are lawful.
Congress has the taxing power under the Constitution, but it passed a law decades ago allowing presidents very broad powers to impose tariffs in the case of a declared emergency.
Trump, upon taking office, declared just such an emergency and moved quickly to impose tariffs starting Apr. 2, which he dubbed “liberation day.” It was not a great success, as it sent markets into a temporary turmoil and briefly sent Trump’s numbers spiraling downward.
Whatever the consequences of the tariffs, judges don’t seem to like their legality at the U.S. Court of International Trade. And although the court has stayed its own ruling for the time being, this looks like a case that Trump could lose at top level, unlike in many of the other cases pending against his actions and policies.
The Supreme Court, given its conservative and originalist leanings, has long been cracking down on executive branch decisions that usurp Congress’s prerogatives. This was most noteworthy in its relatively recent Loper Bright decision, but it was true even going back to its unanimous Noel Canning decision, which blocked former President Barack Obama from unilaterally declaring Congress to be in recess so that he could get away with a recess-appointment.
Polling recovery: Perhaps Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on the tariffs in question has not completely assuaged investors’ fears, but markets rapidly recovered because of it. There seems to be a general belief among investors that the tariffs will not take effect for one reason or another — either that Trump will strike deals with enough of the countries in question, there will be further pauses, or the courts will intervene.
Either way, and although he clearly does not appreciate the policy setback, this has given Trump’s approval numbers a breath of new life, allowing him to bounce back after an early setback.
The idea that Trump can win by losing on this issue may seem paradoxical, but it is far from unique, with some Democrats seeing it the same way.
Three out of the four generic ballot polls taken in May (there was one outlier poll) showed the two parties very close to one another, which generally bodes well for Republicans, as these surveys tend to be biased toward Democrats. This represented a modest recovery since April. Trump’s approval rating is also a net minus-three points, up from minus-seven in late April in the RealClearPolitics average.
Congress-recissions: The next part of Trump’s agenda will involve Senate consideration of a budget reconciliation bill that will allow extension of the 2017 tax cuts. The Senate could simply pass the House version of the bill, but it is considered more likely to “ping-pong” a different version back to the House or go to a conference committee.
Although Senate conservatives were unhappy with many aspects of the original House bill, they may be persuaded by plans to follow it up by passing a recission package that claws back money already appropriated. This procedure, which would effectively solidify some of the cuts made by DOGE, can be accomplished with a simple majority in the Senate.
Although they may be underwhelmed by the amount of money being saved — early discussions involved just about a $9 billion recission of money mostly appropriated to USAID before its dismantling — it represents an alternative means of cutting spending that can complement the reconciliation process and reduce the deficit. There could also be further recission bills if congressional Republicans are willing.
Governor 2026
Arizona: In the brewing primary between Rep. Andy Biggs (R) and Karrin Taylor Robson (R), last week’s poll from Noble Predicitive Insights, which has a long track-record polling the state, may be somewhat misleading. That’s because it included Charlie Kirk (R) as a primary candidate, and he has since bowed out. The result is a modest lead for Robson, 24 to 17 percent. On the other side, a survey out last week from American Commitment has the more conservative Biggs with a large lead in a head-to-head primary between him and the more moderate Robson.
Polls of the general election show both to trail narrowly but run competitively against Gov. Katie Hobbs (D), whose numbers are mired in the low 40s.
Senate 2026
Illinois: It has been more than a decade since Republicans were competitive for anything statewide in the Prairie State, but they are trying to make the case that Rep. Darin LaHood (R) is the guy to run for the Senate seat being vacated by the retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D). LaHood, whose father served as President Barack Obama’s secretary of Transportation, has the bipartisan credibility and the political pedigree, but he doesn’t necessarily seem sold on the idea of giving up a safe House seat for a longshot statewide race.
On the Democratic side, the Lt. Gov. Julia Stratton (D) and two members of the state’s congressional delegation, Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) and Robin Kelly (D), have already declared their candidacies.
Michigan: Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) is reportedly considering a Senate bid, which would put him on a collision course with former House Intel Chairman Mike Rogers (R), who narrowly lost for Senate in 2024. Democrats’ crowded primary includes Rep. Haley Stevens (D). A poll last month pointed to an extremely competitive race again in 2026, with one point separating Rogers and Stevens, whereas Huizenga (with much lower name-ID) trailed, 45 to 39 percent.
Ohio: Although there seems to be some confusion, Senate Republicans would be breathing much easier if former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) rules out a comeback bid and runs for governor, as a Politico item recently suggested. Brown, however, has insisted the story was wrong and he has not decided anything yet. Either way, former Lt. Gov. and Sen. Jon Husted (R) will be favored for re-election in his special election race next year.
On the other hand, some Republicans are already nervous about Vivek Ramaswamy (R), who clearly has the inside track to the nomination for governor. Gov. Mike DeWine (R), who is term-limited, is reportedly trying to gin up support for his newly appointed 72-year-old lieutenant governor, former Ohio State football coach Jim Tressel (R).
Ohio, which Trump basically turned red in 2016, saw every single county except one (Delaware County in suburban Columbus) shift more Republican in 2024.
Texas: A new survey from Texas Southern University has any of the three potential Republican nominees — incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt — narrowly leading all Democratic comers in the general election, meaning either former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, former Rep. Colin Allred, or San Antonio-area Rep. Joaquin Castro. This contradicts an earlier outlier poll, promoted by some Republicans as a reason to support Cornyn, that suggested Paxton would be crushed by Allred.
Although Cornyn trails badly in a head-to-head against Paxton, Hunt’s presence in the primary makes for a much clower race, with Paxton at 34 percent and Cornyn at 27. However, although this might be good enough to get Cornyn into a runoff, he will need a majority when that runoff occurs, and that is a heavy lift given his current numbers.
