The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 17
Apr. 28, 2025
This week:
- Democratic presidential field already taking shape
- The low-key frontrunner
- Two more senators quitting
Outlook
President 2028
Whereas the Republican field for 2028 is somewhat one-dimensional — Vice President JD Vance has a clear if not prohibitive advantage for now over all comers — the Democratic field is wide open. And already, a number of Democrats are trying to establish themselves as players.
No one will admit to running at this early date, but of course many of them are already doing so. This week, we take a quick look at some of those making such moves, in alphabetical order by last name.
Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.): Booker is a second-term U.S. senator from New Jersey. Formerly a moderate mayor of Newark and supporter of education reform, he has thoroughly repudiated everything that had been moderate in his record — especially education reform. His last run for president fizzled out quickly. But his recent record-breaking filibuster is clear evidence that he’s trying to build up his image and gain national relevance.
His biggest advantage:: He has at least the potential to become the favored candidate of black voters, who are numerous and powerful (if less so nowadays) in party primaries.
His biggest disadvantage: Until he establishes himself in that way, he lacks a particular constituency within the Democratic party.
Why he would run: Assuming he runs for and wins re-election next year (high probability), he wouldn’t even be putting his current job at risk in 2028.
Why he wouldn’t run: His chances for president are slim, but he’s relatively young with two Senate terms under his belt. So with the departure of a Democratic Senate leader (see below), he might go for the Senate leadership track instead, where he would arguably have a better chance.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg: The former South Bend, Ind. mayor and Transportation secretary ran in 2020 and has made clear he is running again in 2028.
His biggest advantage: He already polls well in third place at 14 percent among Democrats (although not nearly as well with under-30 Democrats). He is also an outsider and in a position to enter into forums Democrats don’t like and say things that make some sense — a refreshing change from the norm today in his party. He therefore comes off as less inauthentic than most other Democrats. He is intelligent and “real” enough to survive a long-form podcast, although he has yet to make a serious break from the woke dogma that made the podcasting space so bad for Democrats in 2024.
His biggest disadvantage: It’s a tie between “black voters hate him” and “woefully underqualified.”
Buttigieg, who is blamed for poisoning race relations while serving as mayor of South Bend, Ind., has never held any important position. The most noteworthy thing he did in office as Transportation secretary was to go on paternity leave. He is generally (perhaps unjustifiably) let off the hook for presiding over a supply chain crisis that still hasn’t been fully resolved. Aside from Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, it is difficult to think of another Biden Cabinet secretary who was as MIA as Buttigieg was.
Why he would run: He once won the Iowa caucuses (well, sort of, probably), which is no mean feat. This guy has the itch. He still wants to be president, even to the point that he has sworn off a promising opportunity to take the nomination for an open Senate seat in his adopted home state of Michigan.
Why he wouldn’t run: The only thing that could get him out of the field in 2028 would be that donors decide he is just not the guy.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris: Harris still leads in polls of Democrats for 2028 (albeit narrowly), despite having lost decisively in 2024. She is currently out of politics, but she could certainly give it another go.
Her biggest advantage: Name recognition.
Her biggest disadvantage: She remains just as terrible and inauthentic a candidate as she was in 2024. A massive and utterly shameless hype campaign by the news media failed to make her candidacy popular, even though she was running against one of the most controversial candidates of all time.
Why she would do it: Some people, once they have a taste of power, get even thirstier for it. And she can argue (albeit probably not convincingly) that she came close in 2024 under extenuating circumstances, despite facing many disadvantages (such as a lack of time to make her case) that she would not face in a 2028 run.
Why she wouldn’t do it: She may run for governor of California instead. Or maybe she just wants to preserve her personal dignity and bow out of politics while she can.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore: As the first-term governor still facing re-election, Moore is not a household name. But the 46-year-old might just be the low-key frontrunner. He isn’t some kind of political genius with a state turnaround story to tell, but he is young and good-looking enough for a politician, and his liabilities might be less significant than most of the others on this list.
His biggest advantage: Aside from the obvious advantage associated with identity politics (he’s black), he can also make the case against his rival governors. People are not fleeing Maryland nearly as quickly as they are fleeing other Blue states such as California, New York, and Illinois. Sure, it may be because of all that federal money emanating from Washington, but even so, he can still throw his state’s relative success at Democratic opponents from those places. Maryland is home to Prince George County, the highest-income majority black county in the U.S. Not that Moore is responsible for that — but with the right framing, he could present Maryland as a success story for non-white Americans entering the Middle Class.
His biggest disadvantage: Lack of name recognition. And maybe Baltimore.
Why he would do it: Why not? Assuming he wins re-election next year, he will have a safe job and political platform from which to run.
Why he wouldn’t do it: There aren’t many disincentives for him, but he might just not like his chances of breaking out in a crowded field.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom: The well-coiffed former mayor of San Francisco and newly-minted podcaster is going out of his way to distance himself from some of his party’s most toxic positions — a clear sign of his desire to become president.
His biggest advantage: He is a two-term governor, elected twice in the nation’s largest state, which recently overtook Japan in terms of overall GDP.
His biggest disadvantage: California under Newsom is a basketcase, losing residents (in relative terms) and businesses to other states thanks to crime, homelessness, and housing unaffordability, all of which Newsom arguably helped cause. Between the COVID lockdowns (which he did not even personally follow) and the repudiation voters just dealt his criminal justice reform credentials by passing Proposition 36, he faces public discontent in his second term as California devolves into a low-trust society.
Why he would run: He has been working toward this for years now. He is extremely wealthy and no one can stop him from trying.
Why he wouldn’t run: Probably nothing can stop him at this point.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.): The leader of the much–depleted “Squad” is now criss-crossing the nation on a tour of places ranging from California to Idaho to Pennsylvania with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). The two proud socialists draw large crowds with their campaign against “oligarchy” — even in Idaho — at a moment when Democrats are completely panicked and wound up, with little good news to show anywhere else.
Ocasio-Cortez should be thought of as the newer and improved version of Sanders, rather than his rival, especially given that he will be 87 on Election Day.
Her biggest advantage: Ocasio-Cortez has the undisputed pole position for the far-left vote, and she would arguably become a better primary candidate than Sanders ever was. She is not only the single socialist in the race, but she also is not a white man representing an ultra-white state. Sanders was easily swept aside in 2020 by black voters in South Carolina — Ocasio-Cortez might have greater appeal with some of the voters that condemned Sanders’s run that year.
Her biggest disadvantage: In addition to the enduring hatred of her by Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) Ocasio-Cortez is saddled with all of the same ultra-woke policies that undermined Harris in 2024. If Ocasio-Cortez were to run away from her party’s worst excesses — gender ideology, racial essentialism, opposition even to deporting the worst criminals, restoration of open borders, the Green New deal, etc. — it would ruin her brand. An additional downside: Her promotion of gender-inclusive Spanish will probably not help with rapidly rightward-trending Hispanic communities, who will immediately understand the eyeroll-worthy significance.
Why she would do it: She is already polling well and generating tons of excitement among leftists dispirited by the Trump administration. A presidential run would give her the opportunity to start a movement, even if she loses badly. Really, there isn’t much of a downside in it for her.
Why she wouldn’t do it: She might instead have an eye on unseating Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) in 2028. In such a race, she already leads in polls of Democratic voters.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro: The governor of the Keystone State won his first election easily in 2022 over a poor-quality opponent. He is popular and heavily favored to win reelection in 2026. Could he make a run at the presidency?
His biggest advantage: He is a popular swing-state governor with a glide-path to re-election next year.
His biggest disadvantage: Shapiro’s big problem is not, as some conservatives would say, that he’s Jewish. Many Jews get by, even in a very hostile Democratic Party environment, some of them even supporters of Israel. No, Shapiro’s problem is that he actually volunteered for and served in the Israeli Defense Force as a young man.
This fact is not nearly as widely known today as it will become if he runs, and it is also probably why Harris did not select him last year as her running-mate. Democratic voters will not nominate someone who has done that.
Shapiro has also committed the unpardonable sin of supporting school choice — at least rhetorically. Booker has done his penance for that, but Shapiro still openly supports it today.
Why he would run: Assuming he wins reelection — and he should, with Trump in the White House and winds blowing toward Democrats in the midterm — a presidential bid is a natural next step. There are still some Democrats who support Israel, and maybe he could squeeze through to the nomination with their support.
Why he wouldn’t run: If he doesn’t like his chances for president in 2028, he may prefer the idea of running for Senate someday instead. Or he may tire of politics.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer: Michigan’s governor has long been one of the Democrats’ best on-paper candidates.
Her biggest advantage: She is a popular swing-state governor who has been elected statewide twice. She has already disclaimed interest in next year’s open-seat Senate race in Michigan.
Her biggest disadvantage: Her political instincts are appalling — embarrassingly bad, in ways one can hardly imagine.
Why she would do it: On paper, she should be a good candidate. Given her track record, she would be more likely to win Michigan than the average Democrat.
Why she wouldn’t do it: An understandable desire, after she leaves office, not to debate on a crowded stage against a whole bunch of Democrats who have better lanes to the nomination than she does.
Senate 2024
Alabama: Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) will not run for re-election, instead opting for a bid for governor of Alabama, to replace the term-limited Kay Ivey (R). This will set off two big statewide Republican primaries with multiple players, although it will not likely make this seat party-competitive. We will take a closer look at this in the coming weeks.
Illinois: Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D) will be retiring after five terms in the U.S> Senate and seven terms in the U.S. House — a total of 44 years in Congress. This will set off a massive scramble among Illinois Democrats to replace him. His seat is not at all likely to be competitive.
