The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 4
Jan. 27, 2025
This week:
- Nominees pass, criminals deported, Democrats helpless
- Trump hits the ground at 100 mph and keeps momentum
- Trump 2.0 has few or no leaks
Outlook
If you were grading the Trump administration on the alacrity and swifness of its transition, you would have a hard time giving less than ten out of ten.
The excellent planning involved is clear from Trump’s early executive actions, pardons, and a spectacular media appearance by Vice President JD Vance (R). As someone once falsely said of Joe Biden, this Trump is by far the best Trump — it isn’t even close.
In his first term, Trump was mostly clueless when he took office. He paid a steep price for it. This time, everything is different. His team’s competence is really next-level, and his own understanding of the obstacles appears to be quite complete.
Nominations: The Trump administration is getting its way so far in the Senate. Not only has the easily confirmable Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem sailed through, but Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth was also confirmed (with no room to spare) within a week of Trump’s swearing-in. Democrats had tried to make much of Hegseth’s supposed alcohol problem and alleged sexual misconduct, but they failed. Trump’s unconventional choice of a lower-ranking officer and combat veteran to run the Pentagon is an experiment whose results will be scrutinized for years to come, but which has much potential. As some (including especially Vance) have persuasitvely argued, Hegseth is precisely the kind of disrupter whom Trump was elected to appoint.
The next difficult goal will be for Tulsi Gabbard to be confirmed as director of national intelligence. The former Democratic congresswoman, who abandoned and repudiated her own party to back Trump in 2024, will receive a Senate committee hearing on Thursday. She has been maligned by many Democrats (and some Republicans) for her anti-war political views and sympathetic comments toward Russia and the former Assad regime in Syria.
Mass Deportations: It hasn’t even been a week yet, and Trump’s Department of Homeland Security is already on the job.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement has arrested at least 2,300 criminal illegal immigrants — including child-rapists, murderers, and repeat drunk drivers — and issued detainers for at least 1,800 criminal illegal immigrants already in custody. That means there are more than 4,000 deportations already underway as of Monday morning.
Trump’s administration is doing some work to promote this and highlight the arrests of particularly unsavory criminals on social media — it probably should focus on this aspect of the publicity much more because it is such good politics. So far, the single-day high for arrests is 956, but Trump has reportedly demanded more and wants to see 1,200 to 1,500 arrests of criminal deportables every day.
Sunday saw an important showdown between Trump and the leftist president of Colombia, who initially refused to accept two planes filled with Colombian deportees back to his country. Trump immediately threatened 25 percent tariffs, escalating to 50 percent within a week, plus travel restrictions for Colombian officials. Although he at first fired off a lengthy and self-indulgent reply (in which he name-dropped Paul Simon, Walt Whitman, and Noam Chomsky and claimed to have witnessed a race riot in the U.S.) Colombia’s Gustavo Petro did eventually cave to all of Trump’s demands. It wasn’t but a few hours before Colombia agreed to honor its obligations and take all flights of deportees from the U.S., including from military aircraft.
Once again, nothing has been able to stop Trump’s momentum yet.
Leaks: This second Trump administration, in many departments and agencies, is already sidelining career government employees and relying only on loyalists for multiple essential functions. This includes most consequentially the Department of Justice. It could perhaps be extended to the 17 or 18 Biden-appointed inspectors general who received notice of their termination over the weekend.
This precautionary measure shows how much Trump and his inner circle have learned from the experience of his first term and the constantdamaging leaks it produced. Team Trump has apparently improved its operational security by leaps and bounds, and the relative lack of damaging stories about the administration is quite noteworthy.
So far, Trump 2.0 is a well-run machine in comparison to the chaos and leakiness of Trump 1.0. This is not a coincidence.
Nothing is forever: Conservatives should be aware that this sort of run never lasts long — he will eventually hit a wall, and no one can predict where or when. It might be that some nominee proves woefully inadequate or that someone leaks damaging information ala Trump 1.0. Indeed, Trump would also not be the first person dashed upon the docks of attempting to reform government.
But if there’s a moment for conservatives to be excited about change and what’s happening, this is it. This is a generational moment for the American Right.
House 2025
Florida-specials: Voters will go to the polls tomorrow to nominate Republican candidates in the two House seats left behind by former Reps. Matt Gaetz (R) and Michael Waltz (R), and a Democratic candidate in Waltz’s district as well. (The nominee in Gaetz’s district is settled.) Republicans are heavily favored to retain both seats when the general election occurs on April 1. The House GOP needs the bodies to fill as many seats as quickly as possible, given its narrow majority.
Governor 2026
Michigan: Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) is the only Democrat so far to enter the race to succeed the term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (D), who moved to Michigan after an unsuccessful attempt to win statewide in Indiana, is reportedly considering a run.
Republicans in the race so far include former Attorney General Mike Cox (technically he has only formed an exploratory committee) and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt.
Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is running as an independent.
Ohio: The unexpected appointment of Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) into Vice President JD Vance’s former Senate seat leaves the open-seat governor’s race very much up in the air. Vivek Ramaswamy (R), fresh off an apparent spat with Elon Musk over his DOGE plans, has quit the government efficiency panel. To Husted’s relief, he will be announcing a run for governor this week instead of a primary challenge in next year’s Senate special election.
Two prominent Ohio Republicans are already in the governor’s race — second-term state Treasurer Robert Sprague (R) and Attorney General Dave Yost (R), who previously served as state Auditor and has been a fixture on Ohio statewide ballots for the last 14 years. Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), another fixture in Ohio politics since 2010 who lost the 2024 Senate primary to the newly minted Sen. Bernie Moreno (R), has also expressed interest in getting into this crowded contest.
Buckeye State Democrats have been essentially broken ever since Trump’s 2016 statewide victory. They have yet to field a credible candidate, although former Rep. Tim Ryan (D) has expressed interest. Ryan lost by just over six points to JD Vance in 2022, one of the better performances by a Democrat in the last decade.
With the exception of a four-year period between January 2007 and January 2011 — the result of a massive GOP corruption scandal — Republicans have controlled all six state constitutional row offices in Ohio since 1994. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), the most successful Ohio Democrat this century, has not ruled out a political comeback attempt.
Pennsylvania: Rep. Dan Meuser (R) and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) are both talking about running for governor, but the action in this one (as in Wisconsin) may be put off for some months with off-year Supreme Court elections taking place in November.
Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is expected to run for re-election — a consequential race, since many view him as the secret frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. And on paper, he is perfect, being the popular governor of a crucial swing state. The biggest problem is not that he is Jewish, but rather whether Democrats would be willing to nominate a former Israeli Defense Force volunteer as their presidential candidate. In truth, this was almost certainly the real reason he was not chosen as Kamala Harris’s running mate.
South Carolina: It was already clear that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) was ambitious and looking to raise her profile — hence her very conscious decision to make herself the unflinching face of center-right feminist opposition to transgenderism and gender ideology writ large. But rather than planning to primary Lindsey Graham ® for Senate, it appears that her real ambition is to run for governor.
Gov. Henry McCMaster (R) is term-limited. She would likely face a crowded field, but she is currently the only woman currently being discussed for the position.
